| This morning's new Siena Poll should give serious pause to the Spitzer administration. Eliot Spitzer's job approval rating is downright Bush-like with twice as many disapproving of the Governor's performance as approving. The biggest factor in this "historic" drop is his plan, noble as it may have been, to issue drivers licenses to undocumented workers. The battle over this proposal is over and the good guys lost.
2/3 of NYers Oppose Gov's License Proposals - New & Old
Spitzer Job Performance Is 2:1 Negative; Plurality View Him Unfavorably
Nearly Half of Voters Prefer "Someone Else" Over Spitzer for 2010
Seven in ten New York voters who have read or heard about the Governor's proposal to allow undocumented aliens to obtain New York driver's licenses continue to oppose his original plan, and nearly two-thirds oppose his revised three-tiered license plan, according to a new Siena (College) Research Institute poll of registered voters released today. The Siena New York poll shows that Spitzer's job performance rating is now virtually two-to-one negative and, for the first time ever, more voters now view him unfavorably than view him favorably. If the 2010 gubernatorial election were today, only 25 percent of voters are prepared to re-elect Eliot Spitzer, while 49 percent prefer "someone else."
"He changed the plan, but he hasn't changed the minds of the voters. New plan, old plan, it just doesn't matter - New Yorkers continue to overwhelmingly oppose the Governor on his plan to give driver's licenses to undocumented aliens," said Steven Greenberg, Siena New York Poll spokesman. "The Governor has America's Homeland Security Secretary agreeing with him that the state will have one of the most secure licensing systems in the nation, but by a three-to-two margin, New Yorkers don't buy it."
Nine in ten voters have read or heard about the Governor's plan. By a margin of 70 to 25 percent they oppose it (down slightly from 72-22 percent last month). More than half of every demographic group - including Democrats (55-36 percent) - oppose the Governor's plan. When questioned on the revised three-tiered license plan, voters oppose it by a 65-28 percent margin.
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For the first time ever in a Siena New York poll, Spitzer has a negative favorability rating, 41-46 percent. Last month it was 54-36 percent. The Governor's job performance rating is 33 percent positive (four percent excellent, 29 percent good) to 64 percent negative (37 percent fair, 27 percent poor), down from last month's 41-55 percent.
"One year ago, Eliot Spitzer won 69 percent of the votes for Governor. In January, 75 percent of voters gave him a favorable rating. Only five months ago, 64 percent viewed him favorably and 55 percent gave him a positive job performance rating," Greenberg said. "All that's changed in a New York minute.
"Eliot Spitzer's standing with voters has fallen faster and further than any politician in recent New York history," Greenberg said. "Everything may not have changed on day one but from the voters' perspective, everything about Governor Spitzer changed in year one."
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"Currently, only one in four voters is prepared to re-elect Eliot Spitzer. Only 37 percent of Democrats are prepared to re-elect him," Greenberg said. "Three years is a long time - virtually an eternity - in politics, however, this kind of erosion in support for the Governor is certain to bring smiles to the faces of his political opponents. The Governor clearly has his work cut out for him in trying to win back the support of New Yorkers.
"The Governor's fall is directly tied to his license proposal. When asked whether his handling of the license issue increased or decreased their approval of his job performance, 52 percent of voters said it decreased their approval, compared to only 11 percent who said it increased their approval," Greenberg said. "Sixty percent or more of Republicans, independent voters, upstaters, and Catholics said this issue decreased their support of the Governor's job performance."
It should be noted that the Governor still hasn't completed the first year of a four year term. Much can and certainly will happen in the next three years. But, for Spitzer to remain a viable vehicle of change, he absolutely must drop the drivers license plan. Appoint a commission to study the proposal and slowly back away. I agree with Bill Hammond on this one.
Gov. Spitzer should pull the plug on driver's licenses for illegal immigrants - right now. Immediately.
Keeping his well-intentioned but disastrously mishandled proposal alive even one more day does no one any good - except maybe his Republican enemies, who would love to milk the controversy right through next year's elections.
The harm he's done to his own political career - and his mandate to fix Albany - has been bad enough. But now the damage is spreading, weakening every Democrat it touches, up to and including Hillary Clinton.
Worst of all is the backlash he triggered against illegal immigrants - the people he'd hoped to bring out of the shadows.
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Sorry, but "wait and see" only prolongs the agony. He's got to pull his plan off the table completely, so no one can pretend it's a live proposal. If he wants to save face, he can appoint a commission to study the issue and build consensus on a solution - which is what he should have done in the first place.
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Instead of continuing a fight he cannot win, Spitzer should conserve his energy - and what's left of his political capital - for more important battles. The Troopergate scandal is getting a second wind from reports that his former communications director, Darren Dopp, is under investigation for allegedly misleading investigators. Meanwhile, the governor faces the daunting task of closing a $4.3 billion gap in next year's state budget.
New York needs Eliot Spitzer. He was elected on a platform of reform, something this state desperately needs. That's a huge task and he's going to need all the political capital and allies he can muster. Continuing to push a laudable proposal that is nonetheless loathed by 70% of the public is no longer viable and only serves to strengthen the corrupt status quo. Stop it.
As Bouldin said a few weeks ago, something's not working, folks. |
