VIDEO: Adwatch: Sandy Treadwell Hits the Air

Trouble in the 20th (4.00 / 1)

It's a good ad. The fact that a Congressional Representative has no say on state and local taxes may not be recognized by a lot of voters either.  

The fact that he's airing ads of this quality this early is a scary sign.  Both the 20th and 19th will require a struggle to hold.  I personally believe holding these seats in the face of heavy Republican targeting should be the highest priority, and are even more important than attempting to take any Republican seats.  I feel these seats may be more prone to swing in the next election than any of the present Republican seats.  Lest it be forgotten, these districts were solidly Republican prior to 2006.  Sue Kelly won with 60+% of the vote from 1998-2004, garnering 70% as recently as 2002.  Sweeney received 64+% in 2000-2004.  Demographic changes alter voting patterns, but not rapidly enough to ensure these become solid Democratic seats requiring minimal support and concentration.

At least through one election cycle, I feel the importance of holding these seats actually supersedes knocking off Walsh, Reynolds, and King.  As such, I wish I saw more money flowing from donors to Gillibrand and Hall.  We shouldn't let our desire to gain more ground cause us to lose gains we struggled mightily to achieve.

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by: Klugstah @ Wed Nov 28, 2007 at 00:12:51 AM UTC

Good points, all.. (4.00 / 1)

You're right about the need to be defensive in these seats, but as far as donations go, doesn't Gillibrand already have something like over $1M COH? And I think Hall's not hurting too bad either..?

Also, it's a little too early to really know, but '08 has the potential to be a wave election bigger than '06, so there exists the chance we could knock off the remaining R's without jeopardizing either Hall or Gillibrand.  

Peter King writes me Nasty Letters.

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by: tzfoley @ Wed Nov 28, 2007 at 05:43:23 AM UTC

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well, I think that's the rub (0.00 / 0)

I agree that it's to early to know.

But it takes a long time to raise your name recognition in a Congressional race to the point where you have a shot at knocking off the incumbent, and to put yourself in a position where you can take advantage of the moment if it is a wave election.

So it's to early to know where the opportunities are, but you need to do the work now to be able to take advantage of the later opportunities (that may or may not come). I guess I agree then that we should have candidates running everywhere, though the implication is we may not be able to support them. Not sure how I feel about that. But it does point to one reason why candidates who can completely self-finance are becoming more popular.

Follow me on twitter: http://twitter.com/SteveinNYC

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by: SteveinNYC @ Wed Nov 28, 2007 at 16:19:48 PM UTC

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