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6th State Senate: Some interesting stats on why Mejias can win

by: politics64

Fri Nov 30, 2007 at 13:57:15 PM EST


The sixth district in central Nassau County has been going through some demographic changes that has made it more competitive than in any recent memory.

Hannon was re-elected in 06 against a poorly funded low profile challenger. These were Hannon's re-elect numbers:

VOTE IN 2006 GENERAL ELECTION

Kemp Hannon, Rep. 33,754; Ind. 2,643; Con. 3,880 40,277
Casilda E. Roper-Simpson, Dem.  29,656  

politics64 :: 6th State Senate: Some interesting stats on why Mejias can win
Notice that his opponent had no third party line and Hannon had the Indy line.  Note also that the Rep. vote was only 4K more than the Dem. vote.  A well funded high tier challenger with excellent campaign skills as Mejias with the Independence and WFP endorsements could turn this entire result around.

Notice the registration of those who have registed in this district prior to 1990 and those who have registered since 2002.

Registered before 1990
Total         Rep           Dem         Other
65794        34294        20253        11247
Registered since Jan 2002        
30369         7637        12597        10135

A definite partisan swing to the Democrats and as a percentage to the Blank or no party preference. Only 25% of newer registrants have signed on to the Republican brand!  Compare that to 40% Democratic and 35% no affiliation or minor party affiliation.

Below is the current registration for the 6th SD.

Statistics for State Senate 06
Voters    
Republican   Democratic     Other  
  74741          65104            45213

These partisan registration numbers are considerably more friendly than the Nassau Legislative District that Mejias has won three times.  They are also much more friendly numbers than the 3rd CD challenge to Peter King! He won by 228 votes in 07 despite State and Nassau Republican Chair Joe Mondello throwing every resource at him and his opponent taking every advantage of the Governor's temporary downturn that reached its zeneth by election day.  His 03 win was by about 380 votes and 05 by a shade over 400 votes so the LD has always been tough.  Mejias manages to win because of his excellent style of retail politics and community service.

The state senate site is not yet up but here is a link to Dave Mejias County Legislative website to learn more about the candidate:

http://www.nassaucountyny.gov/...

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