A case made that SD 48 can be flipped!

Great post (0.00 / 0)

Clearly shows there's more of a race here than the district-wide registration numbers indicate.

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by: SteveinNYC @ Wed Dec 12, 2007 at 14:02:05 PM CST

I couldn't agree more, Steve! (0.00 / 0)

This is a real opportunity to sneak one more seat over to Malcolm Smith's caucus and put the Democrats only one seat away from Senate control!

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by: politics64 @ Wed Dec 12, 2007 at 15:50:47 PM CST

[ Parent ]

Good analysis.... (0.00 / 0)

...some of which also applies to the 51st Senatorial district.  This area (51st) is primarily in the Congressional District that just elected Mike Arcuri, despite a Republican edge in registration. We need to back the Democratic candidates in all of these races!

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by: robinia @ Wed Dec 12, 2007 at 15:48:09 PM CST

Just took a quick look at 51! (0.00 / 0)

THE REGISTRATION NUMBERS AND THE TRENDING AMONG NEWER VOTERS IS REMARKABLY SIMILAR TO THE 48TH. Is Seward stepping down?  That is currently the big difference between the two. Is there a Democratic Assemblymember or other County officials who are possibilities to step up to the plate?

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by: politics64 @ Wed Dec 12, 2007 at 15:58:19 PM CST

[ Parent ]

We could wish for a Seward retirement... (0.00 / 0)

...he has certainly been around long enough to be old and tired.  But, no, have not heard that.  We do have, however, a real ace up our sleeves as far as a candidate goes.  Not sure at this point how public he is being... but, I am attending a fundraiser for him in a week or so, and will ask about that there.  I think that he could run a good race, even without the incumbent retiring (yeah, I know the stats on NYS returning incumbents to Albany... I'm just SO ready for a change...)

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by: robinia @ Wed Dec 12, 2007 at 20:03:16 PM CST

[ Parent ]

I hear and feel your pain, robinia! (0.00 / 0)

Please inform us of your candidate as soon as you feel you can do so without violating their strategic decision making to run!

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by: politics64 @ Thu Dec 13, 2007 at 05:37:30 AM CST

[ Parent ]

I really think (0.00 / 1)

 That the Dems should just wait and use all their resources in November of 2008.  The Gov is not going to be able to win this one for them.  Try and go after Maltese and Trunzo.  They are the only 2 the Dems have a chance of unseating.  They win those two you will see many GOP senator leaving (Larkin, Padavan, Morahan, Farley, Bruno, O Johnson, Lavalle none of them want to fight in the minority)

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by: noel951 @ Thu Dec 13, 2007 at 10:10:40 AM CST

[ Parent ]

Downstate Dems like this continue to be Bruno's best friend (4.00 / 2)

Keep writing off putting any support into any race North of Westchester and watch the Republican party resurge in NY from near death.  NYBri, help me here.  When downstate folk (who, yeah, we admit, contribute a lot of cash-- remember that upstate never recovered from the recession of the early 90's?  We ain't got none) pressure the party to concentrate only on downstate races, we all lose.  Do you really prefer a majority made up of newly-switched Republicans like the list you have here (Bruno? OMG) to supporting and electing progressive NYers from upstate?  Think about what you are saying.  Progressive reformers should be advocating a "free and fair elections across the state" platform, not a "put all the money on red, the payoff will be big when the wheel spins" approach.

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by: robinia @ Thu Dec 13, 2007 at 11:17:44 AM CST

[ Parent ]

We win by following Howard Deans: (2.67 / 3)

Fifty State strategy or in the case of NY, the 62 County Strategy.  As a resident of LI third district, there can and will be plenty of resources for the Maltese and Trunzo races. This 48th is the race at hane.  No, Spitzer won' be the one to win it but a well supported Darrel Aubertine will! Let us learn from last years congressional races, that we Democrats are right on the issues and can be proud to bring those issues anywhere and everywhere, even into the most onesided of upstate districts.  If not now than those Republican retirements you cite won't matter because we will have failed to fight the battle and build the bench when the opportunity to sdo so arose!

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by: politics64 @ Fri Dec 14, 2007 at 21:59:21 PM CST

[ Parent ]

barclays dad (0.00 / 0)

Barclay's father didn't represent the district before Wright...John McHugh did for about ten years. It has been about a quarter of a century since Barclay's dad was senator. The Dems will need to fight hard for this one, but Hillary carried each of the 3 counties it spans by HUGE margins (60+ percent) in 2006.

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by: peterpiper @ Wed Dec 12, 2007 at 17:49:43 PM CST

Thanks for the McHugh info! (0.00 / 0)

As I posted, Barclays Dad represented the district over a generation ago and the 25 years you site is consistent with that.

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by: politics64 @ Wed Dec 12, 2007 at 18:45:05 PM CST

[ Parent ]

Just Wondering (0.00 / 0)

Where did these District registration figures come from?  I ask because they don't seem to match up to the NYS Board of Elections figures as of November 1, 2007.  The numbers from this table are:

Dem:  46,824
Rep:  78,454
Oth:  45,784

And of the "others", just over 10,000 are registered members of the Conservative and Independence Parties, neither of which strike me as terribly fertile ground for any Democratic candidate.  Now granted, not every registered Republican is a guaranteed vote for the GOP candidate here, and I certainly have to believe that we have a shot, but the overall registration numbers seem to be slightly worse than portrayed.

I will note, however, that the current R minus D margin of 31K is indeed considerably narrower than it was five years ago, when it was 36K, so there's unmistakenly a trend running in our favor.

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by: The Maven @ Wed Dec 12, 2007 at 18:31:36 PM CST

I use VCS, Voter Contact Services (0.00 / 0)

You may check out their site at: http://bbs.vcsnet.com/index.shtml

This is not about minutia regarding my reported over 30K R advantage vs. your reported 31.5K R advatage. The additional7kother with a vast majority as Blanks only underscores myargument further. These are no party affiliation voters.  In many districts throughout NY the Blanks are as plentiful as one or both of the major parties and indeed represent a significant swing voter.  Using your figures and subtracting 10,000 C's and IP's that still leaves a whopping 35K.  While the C's are definitely not fertile ground, the IP's can be depending on which major party candidate they decide to support.  Both Barclay and Aubertine have received IP cross endorsements in 2006!

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by: politics64 @ Wed Dec 12, 2007 at 19:02:11 PM CST

[ Parent ]

I Certainly Wasn't (0.00 / 0)

trying to attack the validity of your argument, I was merely confused becaue of the "missing" 20 thousand voters, that's all.  VCS voter files are commercial datasets designed for purchase, and thus always undercount the actual registration figures simply because they don't necessarily have current information on every voter.

I agree with your point that IP voters are more likely to be wooed, I'm just somewhat skeptical about the party cross-endorsing a Democratic candidate here.  In 2006, they did indeed cross-endorse Aubertine, but the Republican ballot slot in AD 118 was empty.  As you note, the IP also hooked up with Barclay and the GOP, but here there was a Democratic opponent.  But yes, we'll have to see how they go this time.  I'd take a win however we can get it, but I would strongly prefer not to be beholden to the Independence Party in any way.

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by: The Maven @ Wed Dec 12, 2007 at 19:54:09 PM CST

[ Parent ]

I question whether blanks or 3rd party endorsements will play (4.00 / 4)

much of a role if the election is on the day of the primary. The primary will get the lions share of the media coverage, I would expect that to be true even in the state Senate district with the special, and so the reason Ds and Rs will have to come out to vote (presidential primary) won't pull blanks and 3rd party registrants (who almost always pick their nominees thru convention rather than election) out to vote.

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by: SteveinNYC @ Wed Dec 12, 2007 at 20:07:09 PM CST

[ Parent ]

That is an excellent point Steve! (4.00 / 2)

If this were a November General instead of a special election held on a partisan two party primary day than the IP and other third party cross endorsements would have more significance.  The only caveate I would like to offer is that there are many major party registrants who will not vote for a candidate on the other major party line but if they like the person and have an opportuity to support them through a third party line they will.  That may make the IP useful on February 5th.

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by: politics64 @ Thu Dec 13, 2007 at 05:43:35 AM CST

[ Parent ]

RINOs + Blanks = Victory (4.00 / 1)

I really believe that this kind of district can swing, and swing suddenly and vigorously.  A previous post here alluded to the large number of upstate registered Republicans who are "RINOs"-- Republican in Name Only.  Under the corrupt system by which upstate politics has been played, small business owners, large landowners, even members of volunteer fire departments have found it "useful" to have a Republican registration on file when they needed to do business with the State of New York, or with their Republican local governments.  The relatively large number of "blank" registrations too includes some who might otherwise register as Democrats if they didn't think that it might mean that their tax assessment would be increased, or they would not have a shot at a contract with a local state facility, or some such.  Some of this is paranoia and old wives' tales, some of it is a bit outdated (the tax assessment thing used to be a much bigger problem than it is now), but the behavior persists.  What is important about this is that it doesn't necessarily follow folks into the voting booth, where they feel safer.  Hence, landslides for Hillary, and guys like Mike Arcuri being elected and very popular.

My theory is that when some of these areas go decisively for Democratic candidates (and/or Albany is somehow perceived as less partisan and corrupt), there will be a lot of registration changes.  The trick is to ID the right RINOs and Blanks, and get them behind our candidates.  Or, um, to reform Albany... isn't there a blog about that?  

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by: robinia @ Wed Dec 12, 2007 at 20:18:58 PM CST

[ Parent ]

I agree totally robinia! (2.67 / 3)

In fact my whole concept of looking at how the newer voters (those since 2002) have registered is not that it is a reflection of just who has moved into the neighborhood, you know, changing demographics stuff, but also reflects a change in overall community attitude.  When attitudes change, most older voters do not bother with the time and paper work to change their registrations, they just start voting differently.  That is why you have some Archie Bunker type areas in Queens that voted for Padovan and Maltese (although his districts demo's have changed)  but when you look at registrations, they are still heavily Democratic.  I also know coming from Suffolk County, that most Blanks tend to identify with the minority or out of power party in their area but feel like they won't get courtesies or favors extended to them if they register in that party so to avoid problems they go Blank! That may well be the case in the 48th where the Blanks will lean toward the Democrats.

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by: politics64 @ Thu Dec 13, 2007 at 05:52:20 AM CST

[ Parent ]

the Independence Party is more mercenary than that (4.00 / 1)

I wouldn't say it's a given that they would endorse the R.

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by: SteveinNYC @ Wed Dec 12, 2007 at 19:56:14 PM CST

[ Parent ]

agreed (0.00 / 0)

IP is a wild card here.

TODAY is day one. It always is.

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by: phillip anderson @ Wed Dec 12, 2007 at 20:31:19 PM CST

[ Parent ]

They are indeed! (4.00 / 1)

I was surprised that they are some 7800 or so registered in that district!  That is getting up toward Golisano country.  The IP endorsed Spitzer, maybe he has enough influence to get their help in some of these Senate contests. Steve is correct, their leaders want patronage and stuff so maybe they will cross endorse for that purpose.  that is the part of third party politics that I distaste the most.  In Suffolk the WFP has cross endorsed mostly Democrats but they have two of their members elected to the County Legislature and one to the assembly with Democratic cross endorsement.  That and the common labor friendly positions of both parties makes that alliance more ideoligically based as is the Conservative/Republican alliance.  But the IP is another story altogether.

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by: politics64 @ Thu Dec 13, 2007 at 05:58:39 AM CST

[ Parent ]

This is a winnable seat (0.00 / 0)

and the district is much more winnable than registration numbers suggest.  In the 2004 Presidential race, George W. Bush only beat John Kerry here by 50%-48% and in 2000, Gore actually won 50%-47%.  In 2006, Spitzer won here 64%-34% and Hillary won 63%-35%.  

I worry that if Dan Aubertine runs and wins, he would be giving up an Assembly seat that has a very good chance of going to the Republicans.  This is what happened with Paul Tonko's much more Democratic seat, which by the way, I hope Democrats are trying to get back in 2008.  

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by: Sean @ Thu Dec 13, 2007 at 18:18:21 PM CST

Look at (0.00 / 0)

How well little known Chris Callaghan did in 2006 in that District.  Also Elliot is not what he used to be.  His numbers upstate are bad.  Also money is factor.  GOP has almost 4 million on hand, and has a history of members helping out in specials.  Dem's only have 600,000 and some freshman Senators who have less than 15,000.  Why drain it in a seat that you cannot win.  

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by: noel951 @ Fri Dec 14, 2007 at 10:15:55 AM CST

[ Parent ]

Curious where your money #s are from? (4.00 / 1)

Since the two New Yorkers who will actually be at the top of the ticket and in the news on Feb 5 are named Clinton and Giuliani, I'm much more interested in what their poll numbers are. And whoever the Dem candidate for the Senate seat is would be well advised to run as an independent thinker irregardless of how popular Spitzer is, because campaigning on your ability to take orders well is not a winning proposition.

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by: SteveinNYC @ Sun Dec 16, 2007 at 00:46:26 AM CST

[ Parent ]

That is so true! (0.00 / 0)

The top of the ticket is important to get our base out to vote.  Getting their votes is another story, you have to earn those and you do that with strong mainstream Democratic principles and ideas.  You do that with a solid reform agenda and a common sense progressive stand.  You do not do it by saying I am a Hillary or Elliot candidate and will vote like them so since you like them vote for me.

I am also very skeptical of noe1951 money numbers are from.  You know noe1951 has been quite a naysayer with almost fifth column like postings all along on our State Senate discussions. I am sure noe1951 will respond that noe opinion is just fact based, no head in the sand, a realist and not simply a cheerleader but all that said I am beginning to smel a troll!

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by: politics64 @ Tue Dec 18, 2007 at 02:03:37 AM CST

[ Parent ]

With a 106-44 Assembly: (4.00 / 2)

do not worry about the Assembly seat, we can trade in ten of them for a Senate seat and still be overpowering.  Besides, that district has a very close registration, I do agre with you about getting back Tonko's seat!

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by: politics64 @ Fri Dec 14, 2007 at 22:04:21 PM CST

[ Parent ]