| I admittedly don't know all that much about Nassau County Politics, so I've been learning quite a lot about the coming special election in SSD-07 from the reporting of Newsday, which is in my mind THE go-to source for reportage on this race. They've got a great story in this morning's edition that offers quite a bit of great info on the players and the dynamics of what is shaping up to be an enormously significant election for the future of the NY GOP, the state Senate and, ultimately for the future of New York itself. The stakes are high and the players know it.
POWER & POLITICS: Stakes high for GOP stalwarts
While Nassau County Clerk Maureen O'Connell is running only for Michael Balboni's former state Senate seat in next month's special election, the fates of New York's few remaining top Republican leaders may rest on her campaign.
For Nassau GOP boss Joseph Mondello, newly named state chairman, it is a major test of strength in his own backyard only a month after taking over the state party in the wake of Gov. Eliot Spitzer's landslide.
For Senate Majority Leader Joseph Bruno (R-Brunswick), 77, already under federal investigation for his outside business activities, a loss could break his hold on his diminishing 33-28 GOP Senate majority, endangering his 12-year reign. |
| There are many major figures whose political futures are increasingly dependent on the outcome of this race and they all know it, too. The convergence of all these overlapping interests in this one race is something to behold. This race, kids, is serious freakin' business and both parties are going to go to the mattresses to win it.
"The stakes in this race are huge," said Desmond Ryan, a lobbyist for the Association for a Better Long Island, which represents commercial builders. "On election night, Dean-o and the Joe-Joes will either be singing, 'We Are the Champions' or 'Say Goodbye to Hollywood.'"
What makes the Feb. 6 election so unsettling for Republicans is that the resignation of Balboni, a telegenic moderate who left to become the state's homeland security chief, has taken a once-safe seat and put it in play. The Mineola lawmaker, along with Skelos and Charles Fuschillo, were considered among the crown princes of the aged Senate majority. Elected in 1998 after a million-dollar, GOP-financed campaign, Balboni has now become a political investment gone bust. Republican insiders thought they had a blue-chip incumbent who would last decades.
Oops.
Making the contest even dicier is the Senate district, where Republicans' enrollment edge in 2000 of 84,100 to 57,700 has since disappeared. Democrats in the district now outnumber Republicans, 78,100 to 71,800.
That's a pretty major flip in just six years. That's got to have some Republicans concerned. It's interesting to note that no Republican Senators attended O'Connell's announcement and she didn't mention her party at all. Somebody is feelin' the heat.
Good thing that the Dems are in disarray! How do we know that Nassau County Dems can't shoot straight? Well, because Senator Skelos tells us as much.
Skelos also downplayed the numbers and said Democrats are divided over a nominee. The party screened candidates yesterday and will pick a candidate tomorrow. "This is just another example of the Democratic dysfunction, like when they could not elect a presiding officer last year. It's embarrassing for the Democratic Party," Skelos said.
Uh huh. Thanks, Senator.
But Jay Jacobs, Nassau Democratic chairman, said GOP scare tactics won't work, and Democrats will be united once they choose a candidate. He also noted that O'Connell twice lost as the GOP's North Hempstead supervisor candidate.
"The race is going to be framed by asking voters to send a reform candidate to Albany to help with Eliot Spitzer's agenda," he said. "Are they going to choose someone that Joe Bruno, who's already under a cloud, helped pick to join him?"
And that, friends, is the frame.
1. The ones who broke the system can't be trusted to fix it.
2. Do you really want one of the chief architects of our dysfunctional system, Joe Brunogate, to pick the one you send to solve the myriad of problems in Albany? |
