| Holy Krap. Over at Open Left, Chris Bowers digs into the exit polls from last night's Iowa caucuses. The results are nothing short of stunning.
Exit Polls: Democrats Crush Republicans Across the Board
Overall percentage of electorate
Liberals: 36%
Conservatives: 34%
Democrats: 51%
Republicans: 31%
OK, we know that Dems had well over 100,000 more caucus goers than the GOoPs. No surprises. But check out this breakdown:
Which caucus each group attended
Moderates: Democratic 88%--12% Republican (I keep saying it--the Democratic Party is Unity08)
Urban: Democratic 87%--13% Republican
Age 17-29: Democratic 80%--20% Republican
Independents: Democratic 75%--25% Republican
Suburban: Democratic 73%--27% Republican
Women: Democratic 72%--28% Republican
Age 30-44: Democratic 70%--30% Republican
Age 45-64: Democratic 62%--38% Republican
Age 65+: Democratic 61%--39% Republican
Men: Democratic 60%--40% Republican
Rural: Republican 53%--47% Democratic
Whoa. 88% of "moderates"? 80% of under 30's? 75% of "independents"? 72% of women?
That's not a rout, it's complete and utter destruction and the echoes of last night are going to be reverberating for years in Iowa.
These are mind-bending numbers. Not only did self-identified liberals out-number self-identified conservatives, but 88% of self-identified moderates caucused with Democrats? Not only did self-identified Democrats outnumber self-identified Republicans by 20%, but 75% self-identified Independents caucused with Democrats? And when did cities in Iowa turn into Philadelphia, D.C., and Detroit in terms of their level of Democratic preference? More than 70% of women voters and voters under 45 caucused with Democrats.
Granted, McCain and Giuliani didn't go all out in Iowa. Still, in the face of these overwhelming numbers, how much of a difference cold they have possibly made? There is a Democratic wave brewing in Iowa, and the credit belongs to more than Obama. Edwards and Clinton each improved on Kerry's 2004 support by a whopping 60%. Richardson had as many supporters as Thompson and McCain. Biden and Dodd went all out in Iowa, too. Certainly, they contributed to what might very well be a structural shift in Iowa's electorate for years to come. It has often been said that the political leanings of people who don't vote are pretty much the same as people who do vote. If that is the case in Iowa, then the hawkeye state has just turned a deep shade of blue.
2008 already looked bleak for Republicans. If these numbers are any indication of what is yet to come, "bleak" ain't the half of it. They're toast.
UPDATE: One more for the road, just to put everything in perspective:
Total Voter Turnout (approximate)
356,000
Percentage of total vote
24.5% Obama
20.5% Edwards
19.8% Clinton
11.4% Huckabee (R)
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