Seven Top Tier State Senate Challenges and more coming!

Skeptical (4.00 / 1)

While I agree you've made an argument that this district isn't the solid Republican district I assumed it to be, I have to admit to being more than somewhat skeptical of the prospects of unseating Senator Bruno here.  From my understanding, he's incredible influential in the area, and is well known among the general population.  From the perspective of the uninformed, Republican-leaning voters, the Troopergate scandal with Gov. Spitzer may have painted Bruno in a victimized light, even despite the ethics cloud that previously surrounded him.  

Also, and I do apologize for being callous, the loss of his wife is likely to endear him to voters.  (I do offer him and his family my sympathies, yet, as long as he remains in the Senate he remains a public figure and, as such, his policy decisions have a profound impact on the lives of 18 million New Yorkers.  Thus, I feel objective analysis of the effect of his personal tragedy on electoral politics is somewhat justified, even if doing so entails me feeling somewhat sullied.)

However, I must admit, I do love the idea of forcing Bruno to fight just to hold on to his own district, even if the likelihood of success isn't great.  It's a nice distraction for the Senate Majority Leader and prevents him from channeling resources elsewhere.

---

by: Klugstah @ Thu Jan 10, 2008 at 22:18:56 PM UTC

Bruno's Wife at 77 lived a full normal lifespan (0.00 / 0)

I doubt that a loss of this type will generate a huge sy,pathy vote nor should it.  The Bruno's enjoyed a long life together but we are all exposed to the ravages of time as in the biblical three score years and ten or four score years if fortunate.  November is still a long way off.  I agree with you that a top tier challenge at the very least pins down the candidate and uses up scarce resources that would otherwise be available for another competitive race.  That is the meaning behind Howard Deans fifty state project and should be adopted by NYS Democrats as our 62 County and 62 State Senate project!

---

by: jawst @ Fri Jan 11, 2008 at 01:26:38 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Spotlight on age... (0.00 / 0)

I think that the passing away of Mrs. Bruno at the end of a normal lifespan, suffering from Alzheimers, actually is more likely to point up Bruno's advanced age than make voters inclined to vote for him out of sympathy.

The key to that district is getting the rural/farm population to give up on voting Republican.  Immigration issues-- and Spitzer's abortive drivers' licenses for immigrants initiative-- have moved that block a long way in the blue direction.  Spitzer is working hard on the rest-- just saw him yesterday addressing the NYS Agricultural Society, and highlighting his efforts to get Kirsten Gillibrand appointed to the Congressional Conference Committee on the Farm Bill.  First time that a sitting NYS Governor has addressed that annual event in 20 years, although it once was a tradition.  Look for more farmer-pleasing stuff in Spitzer's speech in Buffalo next week.  I believe there are signs that there is a plan on this-- one as much about keeping Gillibrand in her seat as ousting Bruno from his.  While this SD is not my pick for "most likely," I do think that it is well worth fighting in earnest.  I have relatives in the district, and, while they continue to vote for him, they know that some of the "influence" they benefit from does not exactly give a fair shake to the rest of the state.  There is room to manuever there, even among those who know Joe and his influence.

---

by: robinia @ Fri Jan 11, 2008 at 16:21:57 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Counterpoint and Agreement (0.00 / 0)

A counterargument to your comment on Bruno's age is that voters frequently don't care much about the age of politicians in legislative bodies, and sometimes hold elder statesmen in great esteem.  (Examples in the U.S. Senate I can think of off the top of my head include Robert Byrd, Strom Thurmond, Ted Stevens, and even John McCain.  I don't hold any of them in high esteem myself, but they did/do keep getting reelected.)  I don't want to quibble, I just don't agree that his age will be viewed as a negative.

You're absolutely right, however, about the key to that district, and many other districts throughout upstate New York, being the need to get rural/farm voters to start casting their ballots for Democrats.  Spitzer and the state Democratic party need to keep pushing forward with farm friendly measures to court these voters.  If so, we'll see the likelihood of turning this district, and others, blue increase substantially for future elections.

---

by: Klugstah @ Fri Jan 11, 2008 at 20:57:08 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Not Much Dispute (4.00 / 1)

I agree it won't be a huge deal, but just another factor making the uphill climb of unseating Bruno all the more difficult.  My main point is that the present circumstances seemingly do not provide a golden opportunity for knocking off Bruno this year.  Yet, as I stated previously, I support the attempt.  I just feel we need to remain grounded on the probability of success here, which does not appear to be particularly high.  

---

by: Klugstah @ Fri Jan 11, 2008 at 20:41:36 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

I want a challenge to Bruno... (4.00 / 1)

but I don't want that challenge to distract us from seats that we can TRULY unseat. My only problem with Bruno's seat is that his Senate district has 20,000 more Republicans than Democrats, so we're already starting from behind. Again, don't get me wrong, I think we should challenge him. But top seven? I'm not so sure.

---

by: robert.harding @ Fri Jan 11, 2008 at 05:57:53 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

I'm glad we're going to challenge Bruno (0.00 / 0)

but it in no way should be considered a top tier race.  Unless that indictment finally comes through from the feds, he's probably going to win easily.

---

by: Jrathman @ Fri Jan 11, 2008 at 15:30:14 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

You need to re-read my opening paragraph! (4.00 / 1)

This is about Republican seats that have drawn Top Tier Challengers.  These races will only become top tier races when we devote the resources that the top tier challengers need to make them viable!

---

by: politics64 @ Fri Jan 11, 2008 at 19:26:33 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

I'm in the 42nd (4.00 / 3)

Any word on whether we'll have a challenger for Bonacic?

Kind of embarrassing that Yasgur's farm is in a GOP senate district, huh?

---

by: urizon @ Thu Jan 10, 2008 at 22:20:55 PM UTC

It'd be a shame not to (4.00 / 1)

As recent as Nov. 2002, this district had 2000 more Republicans than Democrats.  As of Nov. 2007, there are 5,512 more Democrats than Republicans in SD-42.  That's a big swing.

Voter Registration Stats (Nov. 07)

SD-42

Democratic: 72,712 (34.9%)
Republican: 67,200 (32.2%)
Independence: 7,604 (3.6%)
Conservative: 3,957 (1.9%)
WFP: 678 (0.3%)
Blank: 54,881 (26.3%)

Total: 208,633

---

by: ortcutt @ Fri Jan 11, 2008 at 08:52:54 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Agree but you need to understand (4.00 / 1)

that my post is about declared top tier challengers.  We have many more competitive districts by the registration numbers but I have yet to be made aware of a top tier type challenger for them? Dean Skelos in SD9 is dead even D vs R but he is so popular we cant bring him down.  Does Bonacic share that kind of popularity?  

---

by: politics64 @ Fri Jan 11, 2008 at 19:09:57 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

I agree entirely (0.00 / 0)

Ultimately, it comes down to candidates.  Looks like a good group that we have so far.

---

by: ortcutt @ Fri Jan 11, 2008 at 22:51:11 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Good question (0.00 / 0)

What is interesting -- and worth exploring, in my opinion -- is the changing demographics of this district. For decades Ulster County was solidly Republican; it's now solidly Democratic, with a 19-14 split in the county legislature. This is one of three counties in the 42nd -- Sullivan and Delaware counties are more rural, hence, more conservative -- and I don't know what the demographics look like, but I'm guessing there's been influx of people from the city, just like there has been in Ulster, though probably not to as great an extent.

It has never been riper for the picking, in other words.

And my question was whether Zimet or anyone else had announced a challenge. I haven't heard anything, but then I haven't really been paying very close attention (last year of grad school).  

I'll certainly post something if I hear any news.

---

by: urizon @ Sat Jan 12, 2008 at 14:30:17 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Thankyou for that (4.00 / 2)

and I hope all our fellow Albany Project readers will post about new challengers to incumbent Republicans. If you post it, I promise to research the candidates and the numbers and post about our prospects for a credible challenge!

---

by: politics64 @ Sat Jan 12, 2008 at 16:16:40 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Also... (4.00 / 2)

What about Joe Robach's seat? You're talking about a district that is predominantly Democratic for one. And... this is a seat that is being eyed by the NY Dems to begin with. After the 2007 elections, co-chair Dave Pollak listed Robach's seat along with other Senate seats that were vulnerable. To me, this list includes a lot of tough battles in areas where Republicans dominate. I'm not saying we don't have a chance, but we need to put everything in perspective. We want to be smart with our money and with what races we see as important. Just because there's a top-tier challenger doesn't mean that the challenge itself will be top-tier.

---

by: robert.harding @ Fri Jan 11, 2008 at 06:08:03 AM UTC

The question is who we can get as candidate (4.00 / 1)

This entry at Rochester Turning lists some possible candidates.

http://rochesterturning.com/20...

As Liz notes in her post, Robach may face off against former Democratic State Senator Rick Dollinger. Some other names that have been mentioned as possible Robach opponents are former Rochester City Councilman and Mayoral candidate Wade Norwood, Brighton Supervisor Sandy Frankel, and Robach's 2006 opponent Willa Powell.

As for the 7 list above.

1. Two are solidly Democratic NYC (Queens) districts (SD-11 and SD-15)
2. Two are Long Island districts which are strongly trending Democratic (SD-03 and SD-06).  Dahroug and Mejias both ran well in 2006 as well (Dahroug in SD-03, Mejias in NY-03)
3. One is an open seat which is coming up in a special election (SD-48)
4. Two of these will be tough due to Republican districts plus incumbency (SD-43 and SD-51)

So, five out of seven of these seems like no-brainers to contest and the other two are well worth the shot.

---

by: ortcutt @ Fri Jan 11, 2008 at 09:12:24 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Especially when you have (0.00 / 0)

defined top tier candidates willing to run!

---

by: politics64 @ Fri Jan 11, 2008 at 19:12:01 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Same as Bonacic comment! (0.00 / 0)

Who is our declared top tier candidate? What is Robachs personal popularity like?  A top tier candidate challenging an incumbent with mixed reviews from their constituency is ideal especially in that Rochester seat.  Nobody seems to notice my title said more to come and these are those types of more seats if someone strong steps up. Does Wila meet the definition of a top tier challenger?

---

by: politics64 @ Fri Jan 11, 2008 at 19:16:51 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Looks good to me (4.00 / 1)

Here's a diary (with pretty pictures) that I wrote a while back taking at look at the registration stats and trends in the Senate districts.

http://www.thealbanyproject.co...

We've had the best luck picking up open seats so far, but with good candidates and enough money, we might be able to wrest these seats from these guys.  Padavan (SD-11) and Maltese (SD-15) represent overwhelmingly Democratic districts.  Maltese came within a hair of losing in 2006.  Both of these districts had really low turnouts in 2006.  Just a boost in Democratic turnout could flip these, especially with two higher profile candidates from the City Council.

I hope that these seven districts really are contested.  I looked at the expenditures in 2006, and there weren't that many district that were seriously contested.  Being two away from a majority, I hope that the New York Democratic Party is willing to spend what it takes to be competitive in at least 7 districts

---

by: ortcutt @ Fri Jan 11, 2008 at 08:43:14 AM UTC

What about (0.00 / 1)

What about the 38th and Tom Morahan?  Marty Golden in the 22nd? Robach 3-1 Dem?  There's your dictatorship I mean majority.  Padavan has been there since 1972 and has had many opponents in the past and always wins, with comfort,   Maltese's seat as I have said before could be a 3 way race that can only help him.  Bruno and Seward as much as you can dream are in trouble are not, the Dems will need to use resources in the 7th and 35th.  I am sure Joe will try (will not succeed) in the 49th draining more money.  An open seat in the 37th would be costly, Suzi is pushing 80 by now isn't she?  Mejias just moved into the district was defeated in the Democratic year of 06 and barley won this year; no threat.  I think if you are going to take Caesar out you need someone better than Jimmy maybe someone with some experience as an elected official.  

---

by: noel951 @ Fri Jan 11, 2008 at 17:16:36 PM UTC

See my responses for Bonacic and Robach! (0.00 / 0)

More to come and this seat and others will be top tier as well if and when a challenger meeting that opening top tier definition emerges.  Any Republican seat with a top tier challenger will be strongly funded this year, you need not worry about wasting resources, we can and will fund them all but not for a sacrificial lamb level of candidacy.  I do hope we challenge all 33 R's even if several are sac lambs because you never know if a scandal breaks etc. its like Loto, you have to be in it to win it! We cannot fund those longshot non top tier type of challengers but their presence will be distracting and stretching GOP resources beyond their capacity!

---

by: politics64 @ Fri Jan 11, 2008 at 19:23:28 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

The Grant strategy (0.00 / 0)

I agree.  If you have superior resources to an opponent, then you utilize that advantage by throwing everything available to you at the opponent.  Spread their resources thin and force them to play defense in districts throughout the state.  

I don't understand noel's point about the 15th being a 3 way race.  If Baldeo loses the primary and doesn't run on the Democratic line he isn't likely to generate many votes.  The Maltese seat seems by far to be the best pickup opportunity this year.  Also, I don't see how it's relevant if Padavan has won in the past.  Political paradigms shift.  The Democratic electorate hasn't been this charged in quite awhile, and Democratic down-ballot candidates are likely to reap the benefit.  The fact that he won elections in the past few decades is unimpressive and unimportant in evaluating the political reality today.

---

by: Klugstah @ Fri Jan 11, 2008 at 20:33:10 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

noel is my resident naysayer for all our state senate efforts! (4.00 / 3)

Here we are in a big D year and if the DSCC had noel on staff we would play defense for 29 seats and thank goodness if we defend those. Down and dirty as I have already responded to noels comments in great detail and need to get some sleep.  Look at Oppenheimers district by the number, performance and Democratic superior bench strength, when she retires it stays Democratic end of story. Resources on Craig Johnson is laughable, Craig is an incumbent raising his own resources now and in a strong D district with the popular Mike Balboni virtually endorsing him with his recent statements. Mejias losing in a D year and just moving is a laugh and a hoot. Mejias emtered the King race late, fundraised late and still held King well under 60% for the first time since Moses wore short pants.  the area he moved too supports him well as a legislator so he is no stranger and the state senate seat is far more democratic than the legislative and house seats. Dahroug has more money and organization than ever before and in Suffolk weDemocrats give three good shots at the ring because like Islips Phil Nolan they end up wearing the Reps down.  Baldeo taking away Addabbo votes on a make believe third party is also funny.  Padavan beating tough challenges back in his past, YEAHHH! When the Flower Children were living in Volkswagon Vans! He never faced the likes of Gennaro!  The comments about Yepsen and Barder sounds like noels intellectually lazy way of dismissing robinia and my posts with a simple say so phrase and no refuting the research behind them.  noel is fom the Bob Shrum school of politics, play in a small yard, try to win just twenty states and let the reps have the rest!  Shrum and I am sure noel said we had no chance at the house and senate in 06 and look what happened! That is the way we are now playing in NY. noel needs to adjust to it or risk no longer to be taked seriously!  

---

by: politics64 @ Sat Jan 12, 2008 at 03:21:02 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Attractive districts? (0.00 / 0)

The dysfunction of NYS government has left some upstate areas in the condition that one might expect after many decades of Republican shepherding.  I think that there are larger strategic reasons that some people want to focus resources more tightly-- and I suspect some of it is not wanting to take responsibility for some of the dying-est of upstate districts-- places where State government has taken responsibility for a goodly chunk of employment through prison and youth facilities that "serve" downstate young men of color.  

If we reform our draconian drug laws (which, for fairness sake, we must), there will be a serious loss of income in these places.  If these districts are in Republican hands, the government can use use the economic contraction as a means to avoid responsibility for the end of these economic-development-by-prisonbuilding plans.  On the other hand, Spitzer could, and I imagine will, use his new plan as a template for discussion about possible substitutions for that economic activity.  

---

by: robinia @ Mon Jan 14, 2008 at 13:58:26 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Upstate (4.00 / 1)

Seward is relatively popular for an upstate Republican -- mostly due to stuff he did decades ago -- but Barber has really developed an excellent record.  Seward's district also holds pieces of several liberal areas which were broken up and disenfranchised by gerrymandering, so Barber can count on some solid 'fury at the incumbent-protection system' votes from those parts of the district.

I wish someone would run against Senator "Winner", who has spent much of his time in the Senate acting as Bruno's lackey.  He consistently polls worse than all the surrounding Republican State Senators.  And does worst of all in his home town.

That would leave the Republican State Senate leadership completely focused on themselves, making the downstate races easy pickings.

Knocking out Bruno would be great -- the man is corruption personified, and I still can't really believe he managed to turn his use of state funds for campaign appearances into a benefit for him and a harm for Spitzer -- but I think if we take the Senate, the man will retire immediately.  No more of his usual perks and self-dealing if he's in the minority.
The race against him is more a matter of keeping him focused away from the other races in the state, and tied down at 'home'.  (If he does decide to spend his time helping other Republicans instead of fighting for his own seat, then he will lose, of course.)

---

by: neroden @ Thu Jan 17, 2008 at 00:08:59 AM UTC

I agree very much (0.00 / 0)

with all of your assessments!

---

by: politics64 @ Fri Jan 18, 2008 at 16:16:48 PM UTC

[ Parent ]