| As Rudy Giuliani furiously treads water in Florida, the large coastal states of the Northeast where he was supposed to be strongest continue to trend away from him. Even Rudy's own home turf of New York appears to be in play and John McCain is making a serious play for the Empire State. Surely, this is not what the NY GOP had in mind when the New York Primary was moved to February 5th last year.
For the second time this week, a poll (Rasmussen) shows Giuliani trailing McCain in New Jersey. This morning we learn that McCain is now leading Giuliani by a 2-1 margin in Pennsylvania.
A year ago, Republican presidential candidate John McCain "was being left for dead" by a lot of voters, said Pennsylvania GOP spokesman Mike Barley.
But if there's anything certain in politics, it's that change is likely. And the past six months have shown a remarkable reversal of political fortune for the U.S. senator from Arizona, especially in the Keystone State.
According to a new Franklin & Marshall College Poll released yesterday, Mr. McCain has leapfrogged comfortably ahead of his nearest competitor in Pennsylvania for the GOP nomination, Rudolph W. Giuliani.
Mr. McCain now leads the former New York City mayor by 30 percent to 14 percent. That's a reversal from the last F&M poll in August, when Mr. Giuliani led Mr. McCain by 32 percent to 19 percent. Trailing them are former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee at 12 percent, actor/politician Fred Thompson at 8 percent and former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney at 7 percent.
These are the states that Rudy was supposed to be able to put in play in a general election, now it appears he can't even carry them in a Republican primary.
What does this mean for New York? Nothing good for Rudy, it would seem. John McCain sees yet another large, delegate rich state with a closed primary that he could actually win and the McCain machine is making a serious play for the Empire State.
It appears more than a few people are out to ruin Giuliani's day.
The John McCain campaign machine is running at full capacity, not only in South Carolina and Nevada, but right here in the former mayor's backyard.
"In these dangerous and uncertain times, John McCain is the only candidate ready to be Commander-in-Chief on Day 1," was the phone pitch many New Yorkers started hearing recently.
Needless to say, McCain forces are working hard to capitalize on Giuliani's recent woes. It was once unthinkable that he could face a serious challenge here, but his rivals are now smelling blood.
Overall, the race is still wide open. A recent New York Times-CBS poll said 72 percent of Republican voters say they still might change their minds.
A Survey USA poll last week showed Giuliani and McCain statistically tied in New York. It was hard to fathom just 7 days ago. Now, not so much.
Not only is it possible that Giuliani could lose New Jersey, Connecticut and Pennsylvania (though he most certainly won't be a candidate when PA votes in April), he could conceivably lose on his own home turf.
Stunning. |
