The succession race was already on Monday. Most Republicans give the early edge to Assemblyman James Hayes of Amherst, who has long eyed the Rath seat. But he said Monday his "total focus" right now is his current job as the ranking Republican on the Assembly Ways and Means Committee - which makes him the point person for Assembly Republicans in deciphering and critiquing Spitzer's 2008 budget proposal.
A couple of years ago, it would have been a slam dunk decision for Hayes. But with the Democrats threatening to take over the Senate, will it make sense for him to leave a senior position he has in the Assembly GOP to try for a Senate seat he could lose and for a legislative chamber that could turn Democratic?
"He'll be a very strong contender; I am hopeful he'll be our candidate," Bruno said.
Other Republicans mentioned include Michael Ranzenhofer, a county legislator from Amherst, and Dr. Barry Weinstein, a former minority leader in the County Legislature and now an Amherst Town Board member.
On the Democratic side, Dan Ward, a former county legislator and former Amherst supervisor who also unsuccessfully ran for county executive, quickly announced his candidacy Monday.
In a possibly interesting family twist, Ward's sister-in-law, Erie County Legislator Michelle Iannello said she also is possibly interested.
So, too, is former Amherst Supervisor Susan Grelick, who answered a question about her possible candidacy by checking off her childhood in Kenmore, her involvement in the issues and a long listing of her involvement with local civic and cultural groups. "I definitely will look at it," she said.
One person who won't be running, Rath said, is her son, Edward Rath III, who was recently elected to the County Legislature.
It's interesting to note that Rath's son is out of the running. He was seen, at one point, as the heir to that State Senate seat. Now, it seems the GOP will be looking elsewhere.
Two candidates on the Democratic side that I know of who are considering a run are Iannello and Ward. Iannello, according to my Genesee County Democratic sources, is a very strong candidate and seems well prepared about a possible run in the 61st. Ward also hopes to meet with the Genesee County Dems to talk about a possible run as well.
This will be interesting. I'll have more of an analysis later.
