llinois Sen. Barack Obama could make it a fourth quarter surprise for Sen. Hillary Clinton among Democratic likely presidential primary voters in New Jersey and has gained ground on Sen. Clinton in New York, according to two separate Quinnipiac University polls released today. Arizona Sen. John McCain has commanding leads over former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney among likely Republican primary voters in both states.
In New York, Sen. Clinton leads Illinois Sen. Barack Obama 53 - 39 percent among likely Democratic primary voters, compared to 51 - 25 percent January 22.
McCain leads Romney 54 - 22 percent among likely Republican voters, up from 30 - 9 percent in a January 22 poll by the independent Quinnipiac University. Former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee gets 9 percent.
In New Jersey, Clinton edges Obama 48 - 43 percent among likely Democratic voters, compared to 49 - 32 percent January 23.
McCain tops Romney 52 - 30 percent among likely Republican voters, compared to 29 - 14 percent January 23. Huckabee and Texas Congressman Ron Paul get 6 percent each.
Sen. Obama has put together a coalition of blacks and independents to dramatically narrow the gap in just the last few days in New Jersey, but the big question remains: Will there be enough of these new, young, first time voters showing up to pull a surprise on Super Tuesday?" said Clay F. Richards, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.
"Sen. Obama has gained yardage in New York, but the clock is running out and Sen. Clinton still has the home field advantage," said Maurice Carroll, director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.
I think the clock will run out on any chance of Obama winning either state outright, but the fact remains that he is going to win a not insubstantial number of delegates from two states that Clinton really should have had locked up a long time ago. If this primary were happening a week or so later, things could have gotten very interesting.
