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Wide Open Race Begins To Take Shape

by: Soundpolitic

Tue Feb 05, 2008 at 18:49:55 PM EST


(Good stuff here. - promoted by phillip anderson)

Cross-posted on DailyKos

It was nearing winter-time and the incument was not running again.  Both parties saw an opening and the list of possible candidates numbered in the double digits.  A primary was expected and it is still all up in the air...

Alright, enough of my bait-and-switch blogging: this is not about the presidential primary, which is going nuts today.  This is about retiring Democratic Congressman Mike McNulty's seat, the Representative from New York's 21st District, which includes the cities of Albany, Schenectady, Troy, and Amsterdam, and the blend of rural-and-suburban counties inbetween.  Recent press has suggested that a race all-but-forgotten about in the midst of Super Tuesday will likely take shape after those named on the short list conclude their advocacy for president.

MUCH more below the fold for Capital Region Kossacks...

Soundpolitic :: Wide Open Race Begins To Take Shape
First, an overview of retiring Congressman Mike McNulty's career.  A few ago, Metroland, the Capital Region's Alternative Newsweekly published a glowing retrospective of the Representative's career.  It is quite the comprehensive piece, and chronicles McNulty's early beginnings as the youngest Town Supervisor in the state in the 1970s, through a stint in the New York State Assembly in the early 1980s, and finally to his selection to fill retiring representative Sam Stratton's seat in 1988 by the Democratic Committee Chairman in Albany County.  

It's hard to hold his machine-politics selection against him, because in elections, McNulty kept on doing better an better each year, earning 78% of the vote in the last election.  The article generously points out that this was due to his response to constituents; his about-face on his Iraq War vote is also highlighted, and is probably one of the best and most legitimate positions switches of representatives who have done so, even for those of us who voted in primaries against him for that sole purpose.

Previous blogs by fellow upstaters Albanius and davybaby right here on DailyKos provided excellent, comprehensive coverage of McNulty's reasons for leaving as well as a good list of names of possible successors.  A quick summary from both the blogs and a recent Albany Times Union Article:

NY-21 Congressional Hopefuls Roundup

State Senator Neil Breslin (D-Albany)
State Assemblyman Ron Canestrari (D-Cohoes)
Mayor Jerry Jennings (D-Albany)
Former Assemblyman Paul Tonko (D-Amsterdam)
Hillary Clinton Aide M. Tracey Brooks (D-Ravena)
Common Council President Shawn Morris (D-Albany)
District Attorney David Soares (D-Albany)
Mayor Brian Stratton (D-Schenectady)
Mayor Ellen McNulty-Ryan (D-Green Island)
County Legisilator Chariwoman Susan Savage (D-Schenectady)
State Assemblyman George Ameodore (R-Rotterdam)
Albany County Legislator Philip Steck (D-Colonie)
Assembly Minority Leader James Tedisco (R-Schenectady)
Town Board Member Warren Redlich (R-Guilderland)
County Treasurer Chris Callaghan (R-Saratoga)
Retired Lt. Col. Tom Raleigh (D-Niskayuna)

Now, that is a huge list of potential Congresspeople!  Let's see if that hasn't been whittled down a little bit...

So far, the only candidates who have actually announced their bid are Albany County Legislator Phillip Steck and the Republican who ran against McNulty in 2004 and 2006, Warren Redlich.  

Of these two, I don't know much about Phillip Steck except that he serves alongside my County Legislator, Alexander "Sandy" Gordon, who will not run for financial reasons but would make a kickass Congressman in my view.  As far as Redlich goes, this guy is actually the main reason I think attention should be paid to this race.  Redlich has built up his name recognition in the district in the previous two elections (depsite dismal showings due to heavy Democratic registration) which serves to his advantage in an open race.  He now sits in the Guilderland Town Board seat previously held by Albany Democratic County Co-Chair David Bosworth, thus proving that he can effectively campaign against big party names.  He has also shown his bi-partisan stripes when he endorsed Democrat Kirstin Gillibrand in the neighboring 20th in 2006 (thanks to reality77 for blogging this back in the day.)  Finally, he announces himself as a staunch Ron Paul supporter.  Now I don't know if there really is a big underground movement or if it's just one crazy guy, but there have been Ron Paul signs out the wazoo in the Capital District for months, so a coattail effect could make Redlich quite the competitive candidate in November.  A January article in the Altamont Enterprise provides excellent coverage of the announced candidates in that local paper's proud tradition...just scroll down below the story about the doggie that little local papers like to print too :)

Now as if that wasn't enough information, it's time to get rid of some names.  According to the Metroland article, projected favorite Senator Neil Breslin has announced that he will not seek the seat.  And the Times Union article focused heavily on Schenectady County Legislature Chairwoman Susan Savage's withdrawl from explorations.  So their names are off the list.

The Times Union and Metroland both dropped Schenctady Mayor Brian Stratton's name quite frequently in their press coverage.  This is most likely due to the fact that he is the son of McNulty's predecessor.  The Times Union in particular paid lip service to a potential primary between him and Paul Tonko, who is currently President of the New York State Energy and Research and Development Authority in addition to being a former State Assemblyman.  I'm not sure why the press favors this matchup given the size of the potential candidate list...

As far as the big-shot names go, I doubt that Albany Mayor Jerry Jennings would choose to leave his powerful position as mayor of the capital city, and the press cites him as mum on the issue of running.  On the other side of the aisle, I don't see any rationale in State Assembly Minority Leader Jim Tedisco making a bid.  Why would the long-time leader of the minority in one smaller legislative body trade in that power to be a freshman member in another minority in a much larger one?  That's not to say he wouldn't be a strong candidate, but I don't think a Tedisco candidacy makes much sense for Tedisco himself even if it does for the district.

Albany County D.A. David Soares is one of the more interesting names on the list for me.  He is Albany County's first African-American top prosecutor and he ran an invigorating, grassroots campaign in 2004 against party establishment.  He seems to both remain popular with the public and like his job, but I haven't seen much mention of him in the press as a potential candidate except in passing.  As far as newcomers go on the Republican side, State Assemblyman George Amedore can also be said to be an effective campaigner having won his seat in a special election last July.  This appears to be a double-edged sword for any candidate in that position: name-recognition may remain high, yet he will have served only a year and a half in the Assembly come election day 2008.

The two candidates who may have statewide credibility are interesting, and I have actually seen one of them speak and voted for the other in the past.  J. Christopher Callaghan was the 2006 Republican candidate for Comptroller, and he got my vote in the wake of the Alan Hevisi scandal; I was not about to vote for someone who was destined to resign (which is what happened) and it's my philosophy that a divided government that gets elected is better than a one-party executive created by appointment (which is what happened.)  He did rather well in the election despite losing and if he can do that statewide, he can handle our relatively geographically small district quite well I'd bet.  As far as Ms. Brooks is concerned, she has no website I could find on Google and has never held elected office before.  But I saw her talk at length about her race for Assembly in 2002 as well her being an aide to Senator Clinton at an Albany County Young Democrats meeting back in September.  I'll be thoroughly honest: I'm no fan of Senator Clinton to begin with, and wasn't to thrilled with Ms. Brooks passing statement about where a President would go if their spouse was terminally ill, which I accurately read as a thinly veiled shot at John and Elizabeth Edwards.  That kind of ignorant argument was enough for me to make my mind up about her; make up your own if you can find any information on her I guess.

I can barely even remember who's left the list is so long, so I will end this diary by giving notice to who I consider a strong candidate who has not been mentioned at all in the press this year and was subject to a press blackout when he ran against McNulty in 2006's primary.  Tom Raleigh is a retired Lieutenant Colonel of the Army and has several years of experience as a diplomat overseas in Moscow and Vienna.  He ran a small budget campaign on the principles of campaign finance reform that focused on his excellent op-ed articles in local newspapers, the most recent of which is one of the few local political endorsements of Senator Barack Obama for President, citing the need for a Diplomat-in-Chief.  His statement is at the bottom of the Albany Observer blog page linked to and was published in yesterdays Troy Record.

I have not read anything in the local press about Tom Raleigh considering another run for the seat now that his incumbent primary opponent is retiring, and the only reason I include him in the list of potentials is because the website he set up for his 2006 primary campaign now prominently mentions the Tuesday, September 9, 2008 date of the upcoming primary for Congress in New York's 21st.  

Will that Tuesday in the Capital Region be as crazy and transformative as today's Super-Duper Tuesday?  Only if people start paying attention and chekcing out potential candidates.  I have strived to create as comprehensive a starting point as possible in this blog, and I hope this serves as an interesting intermission to the Presidential primary that has upstaged this important, wide-open Congressional race.

Poll
Who is your favorite NY-21 Congressional Candidate so far?
Phillip Steck (D)
Warren Redlich (R)
Brian Stratton (D)
Paul Tonko (D)
Tom Raleigh (D)
David Soares (D)
Jerry Jennings (D)
Ron Canestrari (D)
Chris Callaghan (R)
Jim Tedisco (R)
Tracey Brooks (D)
Ellen McNulty-Ryan (D)
George Amedore (R)
Shawn Morris (D)
None of the above

Results

Tags: , (All Tags)
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great stuff (4.00 / 1)
thanks for posting this here. i'll put this on the FP later tonight.

TODAY is day one. It always is.

Let me add a little bit to this (4.00 / 3)
excellent run down of the situation in NY-21.

First, this seat is reliably democratic. Something seriously outrageous would have to happen for a Republican to win it. Redlich and Callaghan are the likely Republican candidates. Top tier Republicans are showing no interest in engaging in a losing cause. Neither Redlich or Callaghan will pose much of a problem.

Mayor Stratton is most likely running. Phil Steck is actively and strongly campaigning already. Tracey Brooks is rumored to be in but I've seen nor heard anything official. One other possibility is Darius Shahinfar, an Albany resident currently working on Kirsten Gillibrand's staff.

Soares is not running. I heard a rumor about Tonko considering a run but have not had that confirmed. If Tonko runs he would be a formidable candidate as he has a very good reputation in the area. Ron Canestrari has already stated he is not running.

Tom Raleigh is currently working in Iraq as a security consultant to the government there. The only statement I've seen from on the matter had him saying that he would not be returning until late summer which wouldn't leave much time for campaigning. He didn't say "No" though. Also, he and his brother have both been in contact with local activists of late so we'll see if something develops there.

As far as I can tell we are probably looking at a likely three-way between Steck, Stratton and Brooks. Tonko could change that if he decides to get in. Hard to say who has the early strong edge as each brings their own strengths to the campaign.

All this should start to sort out shortly.

Peace,

Andrew


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