| I authored this post on Paul Rivera last night. I concede that the NAFTA argument might be a stretch. Nonetheless, Jack Davis has always been anti-Clinton(s) due to NAFTA, among other issues. So when Davis is linked to a former Clinton consultant, it makes you wonder.
The facts are that Rivera is very qualified. He is a very experienced operative for the Democrats, most notably working as a senior political consultant to the Kerry-Edwards campaign and ran their New York campaign.
But as evidenced by this filing and this one, Rivera made a nice sum of money, considering he was working only for Erie County and for local races. In fact, Rivera made $55,515.67 from Erie County and the Jim Keane campaign, with most of that being contributed by the Keane campaign for county executive in Erie County.
My conclusion: Rivera is in this for Erie County. Not for those of you in the 26th who hail from Wyoming, Genesee, Orleans, Livingston, western Monroe or even Niagara. This is all about Erie. It always has been.
When Jon Powers first entered this race, Bob McCarthy of the Buffalo News wrote a great piece on Jon's entry into the race. In that article is a very key piece to this rather complicated puzzle. It's an excerpt that is still relevant today.
"I'm keeping my options open just like last time," Davis said last week. "In '06 I didn't announce until the end of March. I don't see any need to be out there early, and I don't need to raise money."
In addition, Davis says Erie County Democratic Chairman Len Lenihan has promised him the endorsement again if he wants it.
Now, on the surface, you might be thinking that Lenihan would endorse Davis because Davis can self-finance. Maybe that's true. But that (at least in my eyes) is not what is going on here.
In reality, Davis is a huge donor to the Erie County Democrats. According to the Erie County list of contributors, Davis has contributed $30,750 since February 2006. That includes two $10,000 contributions made last year, and a $200 donation made in December 2007. One would think that there's a reason why Davis is still giving money. He wants the endorsement of the Erie County Democrats and a race between Powers and Alice Kryzan.
More on the flip. |
| So how does this all link back to Rivera? Rivera will be the man behind Davis should Davis run this year. The earlier connection I described between NAFTA, Rivera and Davis could be irrelevant, but this whole Erie County Democratic machine point is worth noting. Rivera is now an Erie County operative. That's where his allegiances are. So if Davis is being backed by Rivera, you know where Rivera is being pushed from: The Erie County Democrats, led by Len Lenihan.
My problem with this is that they will play the money card. They will say Powers can't win this race with the money he's raising now. Powers' fundraising numbers tell a different story.
Thus, you enter Davis. There's no doubt the Erie County argument (and presumably Rivera's) will be that Davis has the cash to run this race against Tom Reynolds. But what everyone is failing to see here is that Reynolds' financial figures suggest that he is a wounded candidate. He's not receiving a lot of money and does not have the cash on hand figure he normally does at this point in the race.
Davis has said that he will invest $2 million into this race. Obviously, that's more than what Powers and Kryzan have (combined) and more than Reynolds has. But if Davis gets the nomination, he will lose to Reynolds. Davis will divide the Democratic Party in the 26th congressional district and I have spoken to many Democrats who say that they will not vote for Davis. They felt burned by him last time and will refuse to support him in a primary AND in the general election.
CONCLUSIONS: There is a lot of information here. Basically, the Erie County Democratic machine is responsible for hyping Jack Davis. If Davis runs, it will be with there blessing.
As for Rivera's role in all this, he was brought in to help the Erie County Dems and their efforts in the County Executive's race, which they lost miserably in 2007. But Rivera is THE operative for them. As the saying goes, don't bite the hand that feeds you. If Erie County and eventually Jack Davis will pay this guy tens of thousands of dollars, he will do whatever is good for business.
In the end, Davis should not run. But it looks like he will. Davis had his best chance in 2006 and he lost. The 26th congressional district doesn't need him, or the posturing by the Erie County Democratic leadership on this matter.
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