SD-60 & SD-61: More on Mesi and the race to replace Rath; Thompson to face primary challenge

The 61st Dem. incumbent is African American (0.00 / 0)

In 2002, the current district was formed and seems to be 55% NH White and 35% NH Black. Grasanti sounds Italian, do we have the makings of a tough race based campaign in this district?

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by: politics64 @ Tue Feb 19, 2008 at 01:35:10 AM UTC

Antoine Thompson... (0.00 / 0)

in the 60th SD will be very tough to unseat. He was basically Byron Brown's handpicked successor for that seat when Brown left to become Buffalo's mayor.

It's a challenge, that's for sure. But I don't know how tough of one it will be. Thompson has the machine around him, which will work to his advantage.  

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by: robert.harding @ Tue Feb 19, 2008 at 01:59:16 AM UTC

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60th (0.00 / 0)

What? the machine around him? No. In 2006 Antoine had the support of the mayor but incumbent senator Marc Cappola had the support of the machine. I doubt that's changes. The district is majority white, but in a democratic primary, it's heavily majority black. Don't expect an upset.

Firther, Mesi is a smart move by pidgon, who is by all accounts a self-centered arrogant power-hungry prick (I stayed away from ECDC back in the pidgeon era, so no first hand account here).

I gotta believe that Mesi's got a past a mile long though. A boxer? You know what this race means to the republicans - they will go to any length to win, and Mesi freaking beats people up for a living...you gotta believe that he's been on the dark side a lot - I'm not gonna speculate on what, but you can imagine. That's all gonna come out, and we could seriously - completely unnecessarily - lose the seat if he runs. Michele Iannello is a way better idea for the Democrats.

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by: Stephen Nazwisko @ Tue Feb 19, 2008 at 04:20:28 AM UTC

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The district has about 125k D and 35k R's (0.00 / 0)

I dont see how it is mathematically "heavily Black" for the primary unless they are the only Democrats who show up? Based on the 35% Black population overall and the over 75% Democratic Registration the Democratic primary should be a touch under 50% Black and just over 505 White turn out!

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by: politics64 @ Tue Feb 19, 2008 at 12:43:03 PM UTC

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You got it... (0.00 / 0)

Thompson took in the ballpark of an 9500 vote lead out of the Black community in 2006, out of about 13000 votes cast there. With 14000 white votes availible, that means that your white candidate needs to win 84% of the white vote.

Good luck with that.

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by: Stephen Nazwisko @ Wed Feb 20, 2008 at 01:27:52 AM UTC

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This was the 2006 Primary numbers! (0.00 / 0)

Senate 60 - Democratic

County   Candidate   Candidate   Candidate
        Antoine M.  Alfred T.    Marc A.
        Thompson    Coppola      Coppola
Erie      13171       1994        6918
Niagara    1433        634        2734
Total     14604       2628        9652

How do you know the Black V White turnout from this?

The District is 50% NH White and 35% NH Black.

Registration is 196K Total, 129K D 30K R 47K Other
Assuming Blacks are exactly represented in the total registration as their population (a huge assumption) than there are 68K Blacks registered to vote.

Assuming that they are 95% Registered Democrat (another big assumption in your favor!) 64K Black Democrats.  That leaves about 65K non black registered Democrats.  

So, your initial post of "it's heavily majority black." does not seem to hold.  If you mean that the blacks will vote overwhelmingly for Thompson and the non blacks will not vote nearly as overwhelmingly for his opponent than you have a point.  But your initial point of an overwhelmingly black primary vote delivers the image of overwhelming raw numbers rather than the blacks voting overwhelmingly for Thompson.

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by: politics64 @ Wed Feb 20, 2008 at 01:52:45 AM UTC

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Specific Results (0.00 / 0)

The state BOE numbers are by county, however the local BOE numbers are by election district. So, having bought a copy in 2006, I went down to my basement and pulled up the numbers for you, here goes:

Black areas (Ellicott, Fillmore, Masten, Lovejoy, University, and Niagara wards in City of Buffalo): Thompson: 10942 A.Cappola: 792 M.Cappola 2538
Rest of Erie County: Thompson: 2229 A.Cappola:1202 M.Cappola:4380

Remember also that Niagara County has Niagara Falls in it, and you have a picture of your democratic electorate.

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by: Stephen Nazwisko @ Wed Feb 20, 2008 at 14:06:01 PM UTC

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