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SD-48: Polls Are Closed! This Is The Results Thread

by: phillip anderson

Tue Feb 26, 2008 at 20:58:29 PM EST

And...scene! Polls are now closed in the 48th District. This is the results thread. I'll be here as long as it takes to figure this sucker out.

9:40:

S: 5900 - 3500 (91%)
J: 13100 - 7400 (97%)
O: 11400 - 6300 (84%)

9:38: We are going to win this one, folks.

9:33:
S: 5700 - 3400 (89%)
J: 12700 - 7300 (93%)
O: 9800 - 5400 (71%)

9:29: Oswego County:
Voting districts... 70 of 124 56%

Aubertine: 4362
Barclay: 8166

9:25: Jefferson: Reported/Total Districts: 60/ 91 --- Reported: 66%

Aubertine: 8,970
Barclay: 4,886

9:23: Holy Krap! Is this really happening?

S: 5500 - 3300 (86%)
J: 7100 - 3600 (53%)
O: 6300 - 3200 (43%)

9:18: St Lawrence: 29 of 35 (83%) machines reporting (47 total districts)

Aubertine: 5,308
Barclay: 3,214

9:15pm Whoa! Per Jrathman:

st law: 3600 - 2100 Aubertine
Jeff: 2300 - 1200 Aubertine
Osw: 3900 - 2100 Barclay

9:11pm St Lawrence again: 9 of 35 (26%) machines reporting (47 total districts)

Aubertine: 1,609
Barclay: 1,006

9:07pm: St. Lawrence is in with 2 of 35 (6%) machines reporting (47 total districts)

Aubertine: 370
Barclay: 300

Here are the relevant BoE links:

Oswego County.

Jefferson County.

St Lawrence County.

Here we go!

phillip anderson :: SD-48: Polls Are Closed! This Is The Results Thread

Tags: SD-48, Darrel Aubertine, Will Barclay, State Senate Joe Bruno, Election Results, (All Tags)

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SD-48: Polls Are Closed! This Is The Results Thread | 46 comments

hmmm (4.00 / 1)

That St Lawrence result seems kind of closer than it should be? (even with only a quarter reporting?)

by: NYCO @ Wed Feb 27, 2008 at 02:02:48 AM UTC

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9:16 (4.00 / 2)

st law: 3600 - 2100 Aubertine
Jeff: 2300 - 1200 Aubertine
Osw: 3900 - 2100 Barclay

by: Jrathman @ Wed Feb 27, 2008 at 02:07:04 AM UTC

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keep doing that! (0.00 / 0)

TODAY is day one. It always is.

by: phillip anderson @ Wed Feb 27, 2008 at 02:09:45 AM UTC

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9:20 (0.00 / 0)

S: 5300 - 3200
J: 5000 - 2600
O: 3900 - 2100 still

by: Jrathman @ Wed Feb 27, 2008 at 02:10:37 AM UTC

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9:25 (0.00 / 0)

S: 5500 - 3300 (86%)
J: 7100 - 3600 (53%)
O: 6300 - 3200 (43%)

Turnout looks pretty fantastic from these numbers.

by: Jrathman @ Wed Feb 27, 2008 at 02:15:10 AM UTC

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9:30 (0.00 / 0)

S: 5500 - 3300 (86%)
J: 78900 - 4800 (663%)
O: 8100 - 4300 (56%)

I expected Oswego county to be a little closer. I'm getting kinda nervous with the amount of returns not in yet there.

by: Jrathman @ Wed Feb 27, 2008 at 02:20:08 AM UTC

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Jeff should be 66% n/t (0.00 / 0)

by: Jrathman @ Wed Feb 27, 2008 at 02:20:47 AM UTC

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9:35 (0.00 / 0)

S: 5700 - 3400 (89%)
J: 12700 - 7300 (93%)
O: 5400 - 9800 (71%)

Got sloppy on the last one. My apologies.

by: Jrathman @ Wed Feb 27, 2008 at 02:25:28 AM UTC

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23800-20500 Aubertine right now (0.00 / 0)

lots of votes left still to count

by: Jrathman @ Wed Feb 27, 2008 at 02:26:58 AM UTC

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9:40 (0.00 / 0)

S: 5900 - 3500 (91%)
J: 13100 - 7400 (97%)
O: 6300 - 11400 (84%)

This is looking good. crosses fingers

by: Jrathman @ Wed Feb 27, 2008 at 02:30:13 AM UTC

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9:45 (0.00 / 0)

S: 6300 - 3900 (97%)
J: 13200 - 7500 (98%)
O: 7500 - 13200 (98%)

weird switch of Jeff & Osw numbers

by: Jrathman @ Wed Feb 27, 2008 at 02:34:00 AM UTC

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I'm calling this one!! (0.00 / 0)

If those Oswego numbers are right... this one's done!

by: Jrathman @ Wed Feb 27, 2008 at 02:34:55 AM UTC

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so (0.00 / 0)

What is our "swing county" here? St Lawrence or Jeff?

by: NYCO @ Wed Feb 27, 2008 at 02:08:45 AM UTC

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Southern Jeff n/t (0.00 / 0)

by: Jrathman @ Wed Feb 27, 2008 at 02:11:28 AM UTC

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late question (0.00 / 0)

So how is the GOTV with the college students? SLU, SUNY Oswego, etc?

by: NYCO @ Wed Feb 27, 2008 at 02:14:41 AM UTC

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so far...pretty good... (4.00 / 2)

...but all the people who slogged through the snow to vote should be commended.

We've got some work ahead of us.

by: NYBri @ Wed Feb 27, 2008 at 02:10:19 AM UTC

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snow (0.00 / 0)

I don't know how the snow is farther north but around here it was just mainly slush.

by: NYCO @ Wed Feb 27, 2008 at 02:12:20 AM UTC

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% Reporting in Oswego County (0.00 / 0)

It looks like Oswego County is slower in counting their votes, yet even while being behind % reporting, it has comparable number of votes to Jefferson and St Lawrence. Was it expected that more people would vote there than in the others? I don't know the demographics of the area too well...

by: thecount @ Wed Feb 27, 2008 at 02:15:26 AM UTC

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yes (0.00 / 0)

oswego is really the center of gravity in the district.

TODAY is day one. It always is.

by: phillip anderson @ Wed Feb 27, 2008 at 02:17:56 AM UTC

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I think you mean "density" (0.00 / 0)

by: NYCO @ Wed Feb 27, 2008 at 02:20:10 AM UTC

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Mathimatizing this all out... (4.00 / 1)

Take votes so far and divide by percent in and...

Aubertine should lose Oswego by 7000, win Jefferson by 6600, and win STL by 2600.

Aubertine Wins by 2100

by: Stephen Nazwisko @ Wed Feb 27, 2008 at 02:19:57 AM UTC

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Good Gord I hope so!! (4.00 / 1)

by: Jrathman @ Wed Feb 27, 2008 at 02:22:22 AM UTC

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absentee ballots (4.00 / 1)

would be an important component if it were that close-- thought I heard or read that there are over 3,000 out...

by: robinia @ Wed Feb 27, 2008 at 02:27:18 AM UTC

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I agree (4.00 / 1)

I agree. However, they aren't going to be 4-1 Barclay, which is what he needs.

Look for Barclay to sue if he loses by less than the number of absentee votes Aubertine gets on the grounds that he wasn't on the IP line on the absentee ballot.

by: Stephen Nazwisko @ Wed Feb 27, 2008 at 02:30:20 AM UTC

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Yup. (4.00 / 1)

That is just the scenario I am dreading. But, is looking like Aubertine may just blast clear past the possibility of it being close enough for that.

by: robinia @ Wed Feb 27, 2008 at 02:35:34 AM UTC

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does it matter? (4.00 / 2)

Even if Aubertine loses, I hear Bruno's head rolling down the Capitol steps.

Can you say, COUP???

by: NYCO @ Wed Feb 27, 2008 at 02:36:48 AM UTC

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indeed (0.00 / 0)

After absentees were counted in the 49th district four years ago, Valesky beat Hoffman by only 500, I think he had previously had a lead of 1500.

by: NYCO @ Wed Feb 27, 2008 at 02:30:21 AM UTC

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For Ease of Viewing (4.00 / 1)

please reverse the numbers for Oswego so that all three are consistent in listing Aubertine first, then Barclay.

It make it a lot easier to tally up the overall vote totals that way.

by: The Maven @ Wed Feb 27, 2008 at 02:22:08 AM UTC

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Totals (4.00 / 1)

You can't average out by county. So much depends on where each machine is in the county.

by: JustAStudent @ Wed Feb 27, 2008 at 02:24:33 AM UTC

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Matimatizing pt.2 (4.00 / 1)

Votes/%in returns:

Aubertine by 6100 in Jefferson
Aubertine by 2500 in St. lawrence
Barclay by 6300 in Oswego

Aubertine by 2400

by: Stephen Nazwisko @ Wed Feb 27, 2008 at 02:26:02 AM UTC

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Holy Shit.... (0.00 / 0)

...I think we are gonna win this thing...

We've got some work ahead of us.

by: NYBri @ Wed Feb 27, 2008 at 02:33:42 AM UTC

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Great News, Aubertine Wins, Get the lefty blog jump boys! (0.00 / 0)

Three County Update with over 90% in (0.00 / 0)
Aubertine 25403
Barclay 22404

by: politics64 @ Wed Feb 27, 2008 at 02:33:51 AM UTC

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All three over 97% reporting (4.00 / 1)

and Aubertine up by 2500...

(I can't contain my excitement)

by: Stephen Nazwisko @ Wed Feb 27, 2008 at 02:33:55 AM UTC

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Aubertine up (4.00 / 1)

Up by 2464 with over 97% reporting in all districts by my math. Looks pretty good to me, even with all those absentee ballots.

by: thecount @ Wed Feb 27, 2008 at 02:34:23 AM UTC

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I think it's a win! (4.00 / 4)

Good all around - now I hope we can do the same in the 51st District!

by: simonstl @ Wed Feb 27, 2008 at 02:36:00 AM UTC

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Or the 61st (4.00 / 1)

by: Stephen Nazwisko @ Wed Feb 27, 2008 at 02:38:01 AM UTC

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no, the 50th!!! (4.00 / 2)

Although I really must insist we have a REAL Democratic candidate in the 50th and not Tim Green, please.

by: NYCO @ Wed Feb 27, 2008 at 02:38:01 AM UTC

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Absantees will split (4.00 / 2)

This one's over! It might tighten up a little bit, but with so many districts accounted for, our next state senator is Darrel Aubertine!

by: Jrathman @ Wed Feb 27, 2008 at 02:36:56 AM UTC

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WFP does it again (4.00 / 3)

In a low turnout election, field wins.

Follow me on twitter: http://twitter.com/SteveinNYC

by: SteveinNYC @ Wed Feb 27, 2008 at 02:38:03 AM UTC

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bingo! (4.00 / 1)

and A-effin'-men!

TODAY is day one. It always is.

by: phillip anderson @ Wed Feb 27, 2008 at 02:40:02 AM UTC

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Common Phillip, I called this alongtime ago, 98% in (4.00 / 2)

Aubertine 27110

Barclay 24646

by: politics64 @ Wed Feb 27, 2008 at 02:39:18 AM UTC

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Wanna call this one Phil? (4.00 / 2)

It's time to make that classic network move and light a cigar!!!!

by: Roatti @ Wed Feb 27, 2008 at 02:39:30 AM UTC

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Hot Damn!! (4.00 / 3)

Party at Uncle Joe's house!!

Helluva job everybody that helped out in any way. ESPECIALLY those that traveled to the district and/or helped with GOTV.

This is a great win for NY progressives and a tough pill for Joe Bruno to swallow. Wanna take bets on how many repubs choose to not seek reelection this fall??

by: Jrathman @ Wed Feb 27, 2008 at 02:40:39 AM UTC

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Stick a fork in it!!!!!!!!!!!!!! (4.00 / 4)

Uncle Joe has a load in his pants....

Count how many of the GOPers are gonna quit in the next few months....

We've got some work ahead of us.

by: NYBri @ Wed Feb 27, 2008 at 02:40:42 AM UTC

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Heh... great minds think alike? (4.00 / 1)