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High base turnout propelled Aubertine to victory

by: Scott in NJ

Wed Feb 27, 2008 at 05:15:05 AM EST

(Like I've been saying from the beginning, this one would be won with field. Guess what? It was. - promoted by phillip anderson)

Darrel Aubertine won because he turned out his base, that is voters in and around his Assembly District. While the "River District" turned out big for Aubertine, turnout lagged in Oswego County and Will Barclay's Assembly District.

County 2/26
Turnout 2006
Turnout % of
2006 Aubertine
%

Jefferson (118th AD) 12,877 15,624 82% 68%

St. Lawrence 10,586 14,408 73% 61%

Jefferson (rest) 8,481 10,726 78% 58%

Oswego 21,365 33,452 64% 37%

In 2006, Jefferson & St. Lawrence Counties accounted for 55% of the vote in SD-48; yesterday they cast nearly 60% of ballots district-wide.

Scott in NJ :: High base turnout propelled Aubertine to victory

Tags: Darrel Aubertine, SD-48, Will Barclay, Special Election, (All Tags)

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High base turnout propelled Aubertine to victory | 3 comments

High turnout in the middle of a blinding snowstorm. (4.00 / 1)

We in the Utica/Rome area got a foot. I hear the North Country got easily double that. That guy Barclay must have really sucked.

by: Steaming Pile @ Wed Feb 27, 2008 at 14:09:29 PM UTC

Party breakdown? (4.00 / 2)

I'll be really interested to see the relative party turnouts. One of the problems I've heard about over and over again when rural NY Dems get together at the DRC is that our own voters are so hard to turn out. People just assume the Republicans are going to win and don't bother to vote. Obviously, we stand on our heads to try to counter this, but it is a real weakness we can't afford. I hope a byproduct of the Aubertine win is that it helps to diminish this self-defeating assumption on the part of some of our rank-and-file members.

by: Historical Pessimist @ Wed Feb 27, 2008 at 14:23:23 PM UTC

Good breakdown (4.00 / 2)

I wanted to do something like this but I was going to wait for today to do it. Glad to see it's already up. I underestimated Jefferson county and overestimated Oswego county. The fact that almost the exact same number of votes were cast in those two counties blows my mind. EVERYBODY thought Oswego would turn out more voters. What I'd really like to see is a town-by-town breakdown. Don't think those numbers are up at the respective BOEs yet (except for Jeff), but it'll be fun to see what towns voted for who, and by how much.

by: Jrathman @ Wed Feb 27, 2008 at 15:19:11 PM UTC