| Districts are like living organisms, they change over time and they do not do so by necessarally changing their outer-skin, in this case their partisan voter registration. They do so by changing their voting habits within the booth. For Wright, this is difficult to measure as he was unchallenged in the last three cycles. One measurement is to see voter registration preference changes among newer voters compared to older. These numbers for the 48th indicate a more purplish partisan preference among the newer folks voting:
Registered before 1990
27038 R 13650 D 5823 Other
Registered since Jan 2002
8991 R 7325 D 10617 Other
Note also the much larger unaffiliated and third party registrations among the newer registered voters.
NY State Senate Ditricts are comprised by an average of two and one half State Assembly seats. In the case of the 48th, there are four assembly districts with the 118th held by a Darrel Aubertine (D-Canton) as one. These are some registration numbers for the 118th:
Republican Democratic Other
26983 22132 16364
and a more blueing trend among newer registrants:
Registered before 1990
10571 8056 2674
Registered since Jan 2002
3410 3416 4416
There is the 124th held by William Barclay (R-Fulton) whose Dad held the State Senate seat prior to Wright. The 122nd represented by Dierdre Scozzafava (R-Gouveneur) and the 115th represented by David Townsend Jr. (R-Westmoreland). While the voter registration preferences are decidedly more Republican in these three seats each of them are only about half represented in the 48th SD.
The 118th assembly district is almost entirely within the 48th making Darrel Aubertine a highly known entity in about 40% of the 48th SD that he already represents in Albany! Barclay represents currently about 20% and while the family name should be known district wide it was more than a generation ago that his Dad held the Senate seat. More to the point here are Barclay's less than stellar re-election numbers from 2006: Barclay - 22,855 Putnam - 18,286,a 55%/45% split which is not very impressive in a District that is almost two to one Republican. Without the Indy line, Barclays victory was razor thin and that party also endorsed Aubertine in his unchallenged 2006 re-election!
Now to complicate matters a little more there are some blog rumors that Dede Scozzafava is being courted to switch parties and be the Democratic nominee. She won her 2006 assembly re-election two to one.
The bottom line is the Democratic Senate Campaign Committee and Gov. Spitzer who is the real money and point person for a Democratic State Senate need not to ignore the real possibilities of a win here. The Governor seems to be looking at a February 5, 2008 special election coinciding with the presidential primary. Hillary won Oswego, Jefferson and St Lawrence Counties nearly two to one and could be the big primary day draw. Guiliani is theat NYC X Mayor who I do not see upstate Republicans feeling all that enthused about as well as the evangelical and neocon right remainder of the Republican field meaning that near as many Democrats may vote that day as registered Republicans. GOTV is always critical but it is the Spitzer funded state Democrats who are likely to develop the money advantage and organized labor foot soldiers needed to staff and fund a strong GOTV effort! Time will tell.
Great post (0.00 / 0)
Clearly shows there's more of a race here than the district-wide registration numbers indicate.
by: SteveinNYC @ Wed Dec 12, 2007 at 15:02:05 PM EST
Good analysis.... (0.00 / 0)
...some of which also applies to the 51st Senatorial district. This area (51st) is primarily in the Congressional District that just elected Mike Arcuri, despite a Republican edge in registration. We need to back the Democratic candidates in all of these races!
by: robinia @ Wed Dec 12, 2007 at 16:48:09 PM EST
I really think (0.00 / 1)
That the Dems should just wait and use all their resources in November of 2008. The Gov is not going to be able to win this one for them. Try and go after Maltese and Trunzo. They are the only 2 the Dems have a chance of unseating. They win those two you will see many GOP senator leaving (Larkin, Padavan, Morahan, Farley, Bruno, O Johnson, Lavalle none of them want to fight in the minority)
by: noel951 @ Thu Dec 13, 2007 at 11:10:40 AM EST
barclays dad (0.00 / 0)
Barclay's father didn't represent the district before Wright...John McHugh did for about ten years. It has been about a quarter of a century since Barclay's dad was senator. The Dems will need to fight hard for this one, but Hillary carried each of the 3 counties it spans by HUGE margins (60+ percent) in 2006.
by: peterpiper @ Wed Dec 12, 2007 at 18:49:43 PM EST
This is a winnable seat (0.00 / 0)
and the district is much more winnable than registration numbers suggest. In the 2004 Presidential race, George W. Bush only beat John Kerry here by 50%-48% and in 2000, Gore actually won 50%-47%. In 2006, Spitzer won here 64%-34% and Hillary won 63%-35%.
I worry that if Dan Aubertine runs and wins, he would be giving up an Assembly seat that has a very good chance of going to the Republicans. This is what happened with Paul Tonko's much more Democratic seat, which by the way, I hope Democrats are trying to get back in 2008.
by: Sean @ Thu Dec 13, 2007 at 19:18:21 PM EST
Look at (0.00 / 0)
How well little known Chris Callaghan did in 2006 in that District. Also Elliot is not what he used to be. His numbers upstate are bad. Also money is factor. GOP has almost 4 million on hand, and has a history of members helping out in specials. Dem's only have 600,000 and some freshman Senators who have less than 15,000. Why drain it in a seat that you cannot win.
by: noel951 @ Fri Dec 14, 2007 at 11:15:55 AM EST
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