SD-62: Bittner a possible challenger to Maziarz's reign

While I Know Nothing (4.00 / 2)

about SD-62 specifically other than what you've just presented, in the current environment where we've just won an open seat in a district with a GOP enrollment advantage of 31,600, we ought to have at least a fighting chance against any incumbent where the Republican edge is less than a third of that.

Obviously the candidates themselves are the most important factor, but the numbers alone would seem to suggest that this race is firmly within the realm of possibility.

---

by: The Maven @ Thu Feb 28, 2008 at 21:14:32 PM UTC

Agreed (4.00 / 1)

The thing about SD-62 is most of that Republican advantage is in Orleans County. There is about 6,000 more Republicans than Democrats in Orleans County. That's where I am in SD-62.

Maziarz is tough. He's won over a lot of people because of pork and getting them state jobs. People around here, due to our tough times, fall for that stuff easy. Even the Democrats do it. So he will be a tough challenge.

---

by: robert.harding @ Thu Feb 28, 2008 at 21:37:12 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

open seats are easier than beating incumbents (4.00 / 2)

and Maziarz is popular.

Not saying it can't be done. Just saying incumbency, quality of the candidate(s), grassroots support and funding all count too.

Follow me on twitter: http://twitter.com/SteveinNYC

---

by: SteveinNYC @ Thu Feb 28, 2008 at 21:26:08 PM UTC

Yeah, that's pretty obvious I think... (4.00 / 1)

Of course open seats are easier. You're on a level playing field. You don't have to compete with a porkmaster, which is what Maziarz is. That's how he has gained a lot of his popularity.

That being said, I think Bittner would be a great challenger for him. She would really put his incumbency to the test. She has an association with the Farm Bureau, which would be huge in this area. She would be a quality candidate.

Nothing against Chris Srock, who was the challenger in 2006, but he was virtually unknown and has lost every race he's run that I know of - including local races.  

---

by: robert.harding @ Thu Feb 28, 2008 at 21:40:09 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Right there with you... (0.00 / 0)

Look, this seat's probably out of reach as long as the popular George Maziarz is the candidate. He's a smart politician who keeps his nose clean and stays out of the paper except when he's bringing home the money. Targeting 61 is a better use of funds. Best of luck though.

CAVEAT: if Reynolds doesn't run for reelection - a stronger possibility than people seem to think - Maziarz is the guy for the 26th, and then this seat becomes vacant. Then it's guns blazing, although again, I think the 61st is a better shot for the dems.

If we're looking to beat a Buffalo incumbent outright, I'd go after Dale "crazy old man" Volker. You know how sometimes people lose their filters over time? That's Volker.

There's video of him verbally assaulting a number of Buffalo area newspaper, radio, and TV reporters, and trying to physically attack one of them.

Downside? 2 media markets, likely rep primary challenge may produce stronger rep candidate, Big rep enroll advantage, (82K-63K), massive geographic size.

---

by: Stephen Nazwisko @ Fri Feb 29, 2008 at 04:00:39 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

I agree... (4.00 / 1)

As long as Maziarz is there, it's a tough seat to win. He plays the right game. He keeps everyone happy, gets his picture taken when he brings money home to the right groups and he is loaded. The enrollment advantage isn't too bad, but Maziarz has kept a lot of Democrats happy too and they, in turn, vote for him.

As for the 26th, Maziarz would have to move into the 26th first. There is definitely a strong possibility that Reynolds will retire and not seek reelection. If that's the case, we'll see if Maziarz moves back into the 26th and runs for Congress. He might - but he might not.

The 61st is the best shot. The Republicans best hope, Jim Hayes, isn't running. And there really isn't a top-notch Republican in the running yet.

I agree with you on Volker. That would be a great seat to go after. Volker is crazy and his temper would be an issue. Plus, he might even seek early retirement if things aren't looking too good - which they don't.  

---

by: robert.harding @ Fri Feb 29, 2008 at 04:39:40 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

My understanding... (0.00 / 0)

is that Maziarz lives in 26 right now. He did very recently, like in the last few months...did he move?

---

by: Stephen Nazwisko @ Fri Feb 29, 2008 at 05:39:58 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

He lives in Newfane... (4.00 / 1)

Which is actually in New York's 28th. They actually asked him about running against Slaughter and he said no way. It's not as if he would have to move far to get back into the 26th. Newfane is mere miles away from the 26th.  

---

by: robert.harding @ Fri Feb 29, 2008 at 06:56:15 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Another perspective (4.00 / 2)

I don't know much about the district or Maziarz, but I do happen to know a bit about the Bittners (I know her husband much better than I know her).  They have enormous business and political savvy, and a network that is far-reaching across this state, Pennsylvania and Ohio.

There are some reasons that the state party might want to support her fairly actively, in order to encourage a leadership effect among that network that could have more wide-ranging implications.  I may well see her husband at a couple of meetings I'll be attending in March, and will certainly send along my encouragement that she run.

---

by: robinia @ Fri Feb 29, 2008 at 01:24:47 AM UTC

Good call (4.00 / 1)

There are a few "issues" with the Niagara County Dems I guess. Apparently she might not be their first choice, but she's the only candidate I've heard of - and this is my home Senate district.

She does have a strong network, which would only help in this race. Plus, a lot of people know her. The winery sure helps!

But politically, she is active and she knows what's going on. Maziarz just pushes all the right buttons. He gets some people state jobs and brings home the bacon.  

---

by: robert.harding @ Fri Feb 29, 2008 at 01:34:50 AM UTC

[ Parent ]