NRCC Memo: Gillibrand and Arcuri Are Targets, Hall Is Not

What do 11 of these 24 Democrats have in common? (4.00 / 1)

They are members of the House Blue Dog Coalition. So the NRCC is targeting the moderate and conservative members of the House.

Good luck with that...

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by: robert.harding @ Thu Mar 06, 2008 at 19:33:30 PM UTC

and fully one third of them (4.00 / 3)

are bush dogs.

when are they going to learn that republicans are not their friends?

TODAY is day one. It always is.

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by: phillip anderson @ Thu Mar 06, 2008 at 20:42:49 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

I don't know why the Republicans would target Jim Marshall... (4.00 / 1)

Marshall votes with the Republicans on practically every important issue as it is. Having him on the list is ridiculous. He's a Republican as it is! He and Gene Taylor of Mississippi are two of the most conservative Democrats we have!

Phillip, I like the point you made. But I think you can even turn it around and ask why Republicans would target THESE Democrats who have voted with them on certain issues? It doesn't make sense.

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by: robert.harding @ Thu Mar 06, 2008 at 20:47:59 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

opportunism (4.00 / 1)

these are the seats they feel they can win, or at least the ones they feel they can convince donors they can win.  

TODAY is day one. It always is.

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by: phillip anderson @ Thu Mar 06, 2008 at 20:54:44 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Well let's face it... (4.00 / 2)

We don't think like Republicans. If we did, we would be losing our seats right now.

Nevertheless, I think it will be hard for Republicans to justify removing a conservative Dem like Marshall, among others. Marshall is fairly popular in that district (at least he was). I don't agree with him on everything, but it's pretty clear he is popular in that district - even among Republicans.  

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by: robert.harding @ Thu Mar 06, 2008 at 21:06:42 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

A Few Points (4.00 / 1)

First, don't forget that Georgia, like Texas, had a mid-cycle redistricting specifically designed to make Dems like Marshall vulnerable.  And the GOP almost succeeded in bouncing him in 2006.  Marshall had won in his old district in 2004 by almost 56,000 votes, but in the current district, he was held to a margin of only 1750.  (FWIW, Georgia was one of the only states where Dems lost ground on a statewide level in 2006.)

Second, while a lot of the Dems on this list have comparatively low party unity scores, they do all support Democratic leadership of the House, which is reason enough for the NRCC to want them gone.  The voters may obviously be less enthusiastic about tossing them out.  And even the "least" reliable Dem on this list (again, Marshall) has voted with a majority of the party 83.7% of the time in the 110th Congress.

Third, like it or not, electability has to play a role at some level in Congressional elections.  Progressive Democrats are simply not going to be viable in many of these GOP-targeted districts; if this weren't the case, they'd be seeing a lot more in the way of primary challengers.

Fourth, a lot of these are freshmen were elected from districts that tend to tilt pretty red, meaning of course that they're at their most vulnerable this year before they've been able to really establish themselves in the Washington Power Game (for better or worse).

Fifth, as an indication that the Blue Dog Coalition is necessarily all bad all the time, please note that Big Orange is actively encouraging support for -- and NYBri is working on behalf of -- Bill Foster in IL-14, and Foster is apparently on record more than once as saying that if elected he'll join the Blue Dog Democrats.  Is that ideal?  Not at all.  But this is Hastert's old distrct, and there's no question that Foster would be a thousand times better than Oberweis.  Remember, the perfect is the enemy of the good.

None of what I've said here should be viewed as terribly original or insightful, but it bears repeating.

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by: The Maven @ Fri Mar 07, 2008 at 02:52:16 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Arcuri (4.00 / 3)

I wouldn't worry too much about Arcuri.  He's solidified his status too quickly since he was elected.

NYRI is still a hot issue, as well, and he continues to be extremely vocal on it.

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by: NYCO @ Thu Mar 06, 2008 at 20:37:42 PM UTC

i'm not terribly worried about (4.00 / 1)

either of them and i find much of the bravado in the memo laughable. this was a document produced to shop to donors and it reads like it.

TODAY is day one. It always is.

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by: phillip anderson @ Thu Mar 06, 2008 at 20:43:55 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Saw Arcuri in Syracuse... (4.00 / 1)

When I went to meet Dan Maffei. Arcuri is a great guy and a great speaker. Good luck going after him... he'll crush the Republican.

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by: robert.harding @ Thu Mar 06, 2008 at 20:49:18 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Deep pocket enemies (4.00 / 1)

I was in a meeting today with one of Arcuri's staffers, talking about upcoming Transportation Committee business.  Between the NYRI (which, NYCO is right, is still hot, and NYRI is not making headway) and the railroads (which the Dems will bring up a re-regulation bill this spring-summer on.... Schumer has already been signaling that it is coming), Arcuri could be going up against some deep pocket enemies.  Of course, I'm thrilled he is standing firm.

But, we will have to work hard at the grassroots and netroots level to counter the influence of all that cash.  Unless, of course, their treasurers embezzle it...

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by: robinia @ Fri Mar 07, 2008 at 02:09:18 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

And, somewhat late in the game, (0.00 / 0)

Arcuri has no viable opponent yet.

The NRCC must think they can beat somebody with nobody, which has never happened.

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by: devtob @ Fri Mar 07, 2008 at 03:33:10 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Gillibrand makes the NRCC list (4.00 / 1)

because she's a freshman, representing a notionally blood-red district (80,000 Republican registration advantage).

And her opponent will (presumably) be a multi-millionaire self-funder.

But Gillibrand is remarkably hard-working, in DC and the district, and in fund-raising.

Everyone who meets her (and many thousand have at her regular district events) likes her.

She will win by a wide margin in November.

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by: devtob @ Fri Mar 07, 2008 at 03:40:48 AM UTC