| Newsday summed up all the remaining Republican House members left in New York very well today.
Here's what Rep. Steve Israel thinks:
Long Island congressman Steve Israel, who recruits House candidates for the Democrats, claimed all six GOP seats are in play, though he conceded they have yet to find a candidate to challenge Rep. Peter King, also of Long Island.
"We believe that we're positioned to take between four and six of them," said Israel.
I agree. King is the toughest Republican of the batch, in my view. But after that, you're looking at a weak bunch. Vito Fossella of NY-13 is definitely a target. The race is shaping up to be a good one, with Steve Harrison the top contender thus far.
You also have NY-23 where Rep. John McHugh has a few challengers lining up, although some question how serious these challengers are. We'll see how it plays out.
But then there's the three marquee upstate races featuring Republicans Tom Reynolds and Randy Kuhl, as well as an open seat in NY-25 vacated by Rep. Jim Walsh.
NY-26 Democratic candidate Jon Powers has been working in NY-26 for over nine months now, and Alice Kryzan and Jack Davis are in the running for the seat as well.
NY-29 Democratic candidate Eric Massa and NY-25 Democratic candidate Dan Maffei won't face primary challenges and are the apparent frontrunners in their respective races.
My prediction: I think we can win NY-25, NY-26 and NY-29. I don't want to say NY-25 is a lock with Maffei, but it's pretty close. The Republicans can't find anyone to run, even though there are names being tossed around. NY-29 features Massa and Kuhl in a rematch of 2006. Massa has been beating Kuhl in the fundraising game and Kuhl was rumored to be contemplating retirement before announcing this week that he will be running again.
Then there's NY-26, my district. Call me bias if you want, but Powers has the best chance to win this race. This race, no matter what Jack Davis wants to say about his bankroll, isn't about how much money you have. Reynolds raised over $4 million in 2006 and spent over $5 million in the last faceoff with Davis. The 2006 race was one that Davis, again, tried to make about money and he failed. He failed to talk about issues or address key issues (i.e. Mark Foley Scandal) and he lost because of it.
In the end, we currently hold 23 of the 29 seats. By November, I think we can hold 26 for sure, maybe more. We'll see, especially with races like NY-23 and NY-13. |
