| Before Rep. Tom Reynolds decided to retire, which will happen and a press conference is set for noon today, all the talk was about the Democratic race in New York's 26th. Iraq War veteran Jon Powers, Jack Davis and Alice Kryzan are all vying for the Democratic nod. But with Reynolds retiring, the field of Republican candidates is (possibly) much larger.
I have heard five names being tossed around so far:
- Sen. George Maziarz (R-Newfane) from New York's 62nd Senate District.
- Assemblyman Steve Hawley from New York's 139th Assembly District.
- Former Assembly Minority Leader Charlie Nesbitt who represented the same Assembly district Hawley does now.
- Assemblyman Jim Hayes, who was thought to be the top GOP contender for State Senate seat being vacated by Sen. Mary Lou Rath in New York's 61 Senate District before he decided not to run for that seat.
- Senator Joe Robach, who represents the 56th Senate District and hails from Greece - a crucial part of the 26th congressional district.
I also have thought about this possibility: If Jack Davis receives zero Democratic endorsements, he could use that as an excuse to switch back to the party he belongs to and run on that line. That's a long shot, but with Davis, anything is possible. After all, the Republican Party is the party he belonged to for all but the last five years of his life. It's a stretch, but with his money (which he loves to throw in your face), it just might be a crazy enough idea for him. He holds plenty of the same positions that Reynolds does except when it comes to matters of free trade. Again, it might be a long shot but you never know with Davis.
So far, the early favorite is Maziarz. The advantage Maziarz has is being in Niagara County and having a strong base there. A congressional seat is very different than a NYS Senate seat, but he will put up a fight in Niagara County, which went for Davis in 2006.
Niagara County alone won't win it for Maziarz. Considering that the northern part of his Senate district that runs along Lake Ontario is all in Louise Slaughter's district, he will lose that support. He will also need to fight for votes in a district that he hasn't campaigned in and people don't really know who he is. This gives Powers an advantage, considering Powers has been out and about throughout the district and has been campaigning for months.
The rest of the candidates would be a tough sell. Nesbitt, while being a prominent leader in the Assembly, will have to sell himself to the larger areas of the district which can be challenging. Hayes is probably in the next best position to run, but he may not want to leave one minority post in the Assembly for another in Congress. Hawley has only been in the Assembly for two years now and is having a tough time making his case for a Senate run in SD-61. I would imagine that it would be just as hard (definitely harder) to make a case for NY-26. Robach might be a sleeper here, considering his seat might be considered vulnerable and he may not want to sit through a Democratic majority in the Senate even if he should win.
We'll see. It will be interesting. I'll have more on this race after Reynolds makes his announcement at noon. |
