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Cook Political Report: NY-26 Now Rated Toss Up

by: NYBri

Fri Mar 21, 2008 at 10:00:33 AM EDT


This is HUGE. Check it out:

Today's retirement announcement by upstate New York GOP Rep. Tom Reynolds brings to 26 the total number of Republican open seats, and to four the number of New York GOP incumbents running for reelection. It also brings to five the number of former members of the House's elected Republican leadership who have called it quits so far this cycle. The others are Reps. John Doolittle (CA-04), Dennis Hastert (IL-14), Deborah Pryce (OH-15), and Tom Davis (VA-11). Democrats have already won Hastert's seat and are targeting the other three.

By the numbers, Reynolds's suburban Buffalo-to-Rochester district is the second most Republican in upstate New York, and any number of Republicans could put Reynolds's formidable political operation to work to keep the seat in the GOP column. Plus, there is little doubt that much of the $862,000 Reynolds reported in cash on hand at the end of 2007 will find its way into the district this fall. But its newly open status should bring the likely Democratic nominee, Iraq veteran and teacher Jon Powers, the flood of money and attention he has sought for months. This becomes the latest GOP open seat addition to the Toss Up column.

emphasis mine

Show some love to the Powers Campaign.

NYBri :: Cook Political Report: NY-26 Now Rated Toss Up
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Toss Up (0.00 / 0)
Some may disagree with me, but "toss-up" today means "depending on who the Democratic nominee for President is."  This district, heavily Republican, looks like a keen example.

If we nominate Hillary, there will be higher Red turnout and thus a freshman Republican stands to keep this thing a "toss-up."

If Barack Obama is the nominee, then there is no contest; the district goes blue on his coattails.  "Toss-up" starts meaning "solid Dem" with him on the top of the ticket.

Any Superdelegates from the 26th you can write to?


Based on the Democratic numbers in the primaries... (0.00 / 0)
I disagree. The Republicans simply aren't motivated by any of their candidates, including McCain. I'm not a Hillary supporter, but if Hillary is the candidate, she still will bring people to the polls.

Obama excites everyone, as we have seen. So I'm not worried about voter turnout with either.

This district is different though. Being a progressive (like I am) is a rare thing. I know moderate Democrats, conservative Democrats and plenty of conservative Republicans and moderates. Jack Davis played to one issue, but Jon Powers can play to that issue AND all the rest. We have more than just one concern and Powers realizes that. He can win this district with bipartisan support.  


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