The more recent spate of Democratic pickups has been in upstate New York, in blue-collar cities surrounded by rural counties. These are some of the most economically depressed parts of the country, with voters who are more socially conservative. The three-seat pickup last year and the two to three seats likely to go Democratic this year suggest that the Bush Administration, the Iraq War, and recent Republican incompetence and corruption play a real role here.
The upstate districts -- in their demographics and in the issues that helped Democrats win -- mirror much of the turf Democrats conquered in 2006, such as the Ohio River Valley seats. Cast in terms of the presidential election, this is Clinton country.
While Republicans will probably have only three or four U.S. congressional seats in New York after the 2008 elections, things can certainly get worse. The three safe New York Republican representatives this year -- Peter King in Long Island's Nassau County, Vito Fossella of Staten Island, and John McHugh from the Northern end of the state -- all occupy seats that could go to Democrats upon these GOPers' retirements.
Although they face real troubles these days, thanks to disgraced former Gov. Eliot Spitzer (D), Democrats in Albany could control both legislative chambers and the governorship in 2010. Redistricting that year (which could involve the loss of a seat in reapportionment), could bring New York's Republican congressional delegation down to zero.
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New York-24: Republicans held this district two years ago, but they now appear to have given up on it. Freshman Rep. Mike Arcuri (D) picked up this sprawling Upstate district after the retirement of Rep. Sherwood Boehlert (R). Not a single Republican has announced to run here yet. While there is still time before the July filing deadline, for the foreseeable future this district will be represented by a Democrat. Likely Democratic Retention.
New York-25: The matchup appears set in the race to replace retiring Rep. Jim Walsh (R), and it still looks like a Democratic takeover in this Syracuse-based district.
Former Capitol Hill staffer Dan Maffei (D) barely lost to Walsh in 2006, and he is the Democratic standard-bearer right now. Maffei has strong liberal backing and is a skilled campaigner who now has experience. Currently, he is unopposed for the Democratic nomination.
The only Republican in the race right now is former state fair director Peter Cappuccilli (R). Cappuccilli is inexperienced, and there are murmurs that the National Republican Congressional Committee is giving up on this district to focus on stopping losses elsewhere.
Although held by a Republican in recent years, this is really a Democratic district. A third of the population lives in Syracuse, which is a Democratic town. Walsh benefitted from his family connections -- his father was Syracuse mayor and a congressman -- but still, in his narrow '06 win over Maffei, Walsh lost the city and won on the strength of the rural vote, which has benefitted from his pork-barrel spending.
In short, any Republican but Walsh would be hard-pressed to win this district, and Maffei is a strong candidate. Maffei is a favorite now, and by the fall, he could be a shoo-in. Leaning Democratic Takeover.
New York-26: Rep. Tom Reynolds (R), perhaps facing electoral defeat, will retire this year after an ignominious stint as chairman of the National Republican Congressional Committee. Fittingly, he looks to be leaving his district to the Democrats.
Reynolds' district in Western New York voted for Bush in 2004, but Reynolds barely held on in 2006 after revelations about his handling of the Mark Foley scandal.
Democrats have two strong potential candidates: wealthy businessman and two-time candidate Jack Davis, and Iraq War veteran Jon Powers, who was already engaged in a challenge to Reynolds. Davis could fund his own race, and Powers has backing among liberal bloggers who showed real success raising funds in 2006.
Republicans failed to get their top candidate, State Sen. George Maziarz. State Assemblyman Jim Hayes is currently the leading Republican. Republicans have an enrollment edge here, but the sagging economy and the Democratic cash advantage tilt this one towards the Democrats. Leaning Democratic Takeover.
New York-29: Rep. Randy Kuhl (R) could be the next New York Republican to fall. His Western Tier district spanning eight counties is largely rural and basically Republican, but that's no guarantee he can hold it.
This year he faces a rematch against his 2006 opponent Eric Massa (D), who outraised him and lost by only 6,000 votes. In the past, Kuhl has had trouble garnering support from conservatives here (Conservative Party nominee Mark Assini picked up 17,000 votes against Kuhl in 2004), and his personal problems, stemming from ugly incidents in his divorce papers, continue to plague him. Massa will have serious support from the liberal blogosphere and the DCCC and will likely outspend Kuhl.
The district's makeup, however, gives Kuhl the edge. If he could hold on in his first re-election -- by far the hardest historically -- in such an awful year, he should be able to hold on in 2008. This is no sure thing, however. Leaning Republican Retention.
For Republicans, if even Novakula has given up on you, you're probably screwed.
Oh, and notice his repeated mentions of "liberal bloggers" and the "liberal blogosphere?" I like that.
