| I don't know how well this will go over here, but it's a scenario that keeps coming up in conversation, though mostly unacknowledged. It's only one of many possibilities, but it's plausible. In Upstate 2050 style, I thought it might be worth writing up as fiction.
It's not a forecast of the future, but a possibility to contemplate as we keep discussing the relationship between Democrats and various kinds of reform.
(If there's enough interest, I'd be happy to find a home for more stories on the general Legislature 2020 subject.)
Redistricting Re-emerges (fiction)
ALBANY - As the census comes to an end, arguments about the political redistricting that follows are disrupting the usual peace in Albany.
"Our legislature has brought New York to the edge of the progressive wave," said Assembly Speaker John P. Marquez (D-Mount Vernon). "The voters clearly appreciate it, re-electing us 99% of the time over the last six years."
Senate Majority Leader Natalie Gregorio (D-Hempstead) concurred. "After decades of retrograde motion, the Democratic New York State Senate is finally helping our state's residents at full speed."
Outside of the Capitol, other signs suggest that state residents aren't happy about their government. The Assembly's approval rating fell to an all-time low of 7% in a Quinnipiac poll, while the Senate scored 12%. (56% of respondents replied "Don't Know," however.)
"It's the usual suspects complaining," said Marquez. "The Times, the Post, Gannett, Newsday, the Times-Union, the Manhattan Institute, the Brennan Center - corporate media journalists and researchers who think they can run government better than the people elected to run it. They even think they can draw districts better than the people who represent those districts."
"Marquez is one of those strange people who bought a gold medal and thinks he earned it," replied Dr. J.L. Bradley of the Manhattan Institute. "My predecessors here railed against the waste they saw in New York government back in the 90s. I can't imagine what they'd think now."
Together4NY spokeswoman Inez Ralston suggested fundamental problems in the election system. "They have no real connection to voters," she said. "They don't need to have a connection, really, when the Assembly is 127-22 Democratic and the Senate is 48-11. The 2012 redistricting really locked in Democratic super-majorities in both houses."
"We used to argue for changes in the rules," she continued, "and those might have helped, but the basic problem is that reformers, even Democratic reformers, can't break into a system stacked so heavily in favor of incumbents."
Bradley cited out-of-control member item spending as his main concern. "In 2008, they distributed around $300 million, a relatively tiny share of the budget. In 2020, they're up to $10.4 billion, a much larger share of the budget, with about half of that going to pay for services to communities that really need tax relief in some form. It makes them look good at election time, though."
Ralston noted that, while Together4NY is strictly non-partisan, the demise of the New York State Republican Party is also cause for concern. "It's not just that the districts are gerrymandered - it's that in many cases, there isn't anyone around with the strength to fight anyway."
Voter registration statistics suggest that while Democratic registration continued to climb, Republican registrations plunged over the years. The roughly 3-2 advantage Democrats held in 2010 became a 5-2 advantage in 2020, though there are now more unaffiliated voters than Republican voters.
"Some of that is demographic shift and a change in the political climate," said Ralston. "Some of it is people just giving up."
Newly-elected State Republican Chair Michael O'Rourke argued against that, blaming "Downstate machines and corruption plus the perpetual squeeze Democrats have put on Upstate New York - a lot of people have just had enough of New York State government and moved away."
O'Rourke suggested that Republicans would be seeking change through the Governor's mansion, a statewide race he believes they can win despite the party's failure to rally around a candidate in 2018.
Governor James Walton (D) couldn't be reached for this story, but in previous press conferences has argued that "I'm busy cleaning up the Executive Branch. It's up to them to clean their own houses."
[Remember, it's fiction.] |
