Republican Candidates
The Advance says this Wednesday the GOP executive committee will interview candidates, although I have reported the meeting is scheduled for May 22, Thursday.
After the interviews the next date to watch for is June 3 when ballot petitioning starts. The candidate with support of the party will be the clear favorite and have their ballots carried for them.
Look for DA Dan Donovan to be the clear favorite in this contracted primary. The only other top tier candidate would be State Senator Andrew Lanza, childhood friend of Fossella's. Lanza would be forced to give up his state senate seat to run in the general election but this seems like a safe Republican senate seat, what ever that is worth these days. If Lanza runs we have a show down between whatever is left of Fossella's party machine vs. Donovan and very likely the Conservative Party powers that be including Borough President James Molinaro.
Fossella and Molinaro have often feuded and the victor of this race would assume control of the Republican Party in Staten Island.
Democratic Candidates
Similarly the Democratic candidates will have an upcoming interview process, dates not yet announced. Ballot petitioning also starts on June 3 so expect some fast movement on the parts of candidates jumping into this race. Democrats need to collect 1,250 signatures by July 10.
The three talked about Staten Island dems Mike Cusick, Diane Savino and Mike McMahon have to this point not made up their minds, however I expect that to change quickly. Most likely in the next 24 hours we will hear one of them declare. This will be somewhat of a race to gather support, although mostly behind the scenes. I have detailed State Senate Diane Savino, City Council member Mike McMahon and Assembly Member Mike Cuisck extensively below. Also running or mentioned are;
Steve Harrison, Brooklyn, alredy declared. He is one of the original 10 co-signers of A Responsible Plan and has $90,000 cash on hand. Steve was the nominee in 2006, garnering 43% of the vote, the most ever against Fossella. Harrison has so far wrapped up every endorsement that has been made in the district;
• Democratic Organization of Richmond County
• Staten Island Democratic Association
• American Heritage Club
He also has been endorsed by DFNYC the local DFA chapter, nationally by PDA as well as Peace Action. Steve has clearly made himself the progressive and activist candidate. This will be crucial during ballot petitioning and the primary.
City Council Member Domenic Recchia, Brooklyn (yet to declare)
Recchia has been raising money and has $325,000 cash on hand. He has more cash on hand than Fossella did at the end of the first quarter. Recent reports however indicate that Recchia had been looking to drop out as recently as the day of Fossella's arrest. Recchia who has yet to declare, also has no campaign staff or website. He often skipped club endorsement meetings and made little public statements. I believe Recchia has no interest in doing this and will back away once Savino or McMahon declare.
Assembly Member Peter Abbate, Brooklyn
Abbate is at best a third tier candidate right now. I don't see how he impacts this race.
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Diane Savino is a State Senator representing the 23rd Sentate District covering the north shore of Staten Island as well as portions of Brooklyn including Borough Park, Coney Island, Bensonhurst, and Sunset Park. Her senate district is overlapped on the congressional district (green below);
From her State Senate bio;
An active member of her local labor union, the Social Service Employees Union, Local 371, DC 37 of AFSCME, she quickly rose through the ranks to become the Vice President for Political Action & Legislative Affairs, where she became one of the most respected labor leaders in New York State.
Sen. Savino was first elected to State Senate in 2004 and won re-election in 2006. She is up for re-election this November.
2004
Diane Savino (D, WFP): 63%
Al Curtis (R, I, C): 37%
2006
Diane Savino (D, I, WFP): 99%
no opponent
Why she could be the nominee
As noted above she has great ties to the labor community. In 2004 the Democratic nominee Frank Barbaro was able to raise $187,000 of his $425,000 from union contributions. She should be able to easily match Barbaro's financial success.
Savino was an Executive Board member for Working Families Party. WFP has been instrumental in providing very strong ground operations in two high profile State Senate races, Craig Johnson and Darrel Aubertine. I often noted before Fossella's latest ethics problem that involvement by WFP would be critical in flipping this seat. She has the strongest connection of any of the candidates to WFP.
The DCCC has been apparently dropping her name as someone of interest. As far back as 2005 the DCCC had been trying to recruit her.
Why she might not be the nominee
A victory for Savino would put a state senate seat up for grabs in a year Democrats possibly are going to flip the Senate. She also is co-chair of the New York State Democratic Senate Campaign Committee and in charge of recruitment. Certainly the New York State Party would not be supportive of her giving up this seat and she would give up all of her work towards reclaiming a majority.
Diane has up until this point publicly supported Domenic Recchia. Recchia would need to most likely drop out before Savino would enter.
She would start a congressional campaign with no money.
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Mike McMahon is a member of the New York City Council, representing the north shore of Staten Island including the neighborhoods of; Rosebank, Westerleigh, New Brighton, West Brighton, Mariners Harbor, Stapleton, St. George, Park Hill, Port Richmond, Clifton, Arlington, Grymes Hill and Dongan Hills. His district is overlapped on the congressional district (green below);
McMahon was first elected in 2001, has won re-election in 2005 and will be term limited out of office in 2009.
2005
Mike McMahon (D, WFP, C): 70%
Jody Hall (R): 30%
Why he could be the nominee
McMahon chairs the Sanitation Committee which is extremely influential in Staten Island with its history as a waste transfer and landfill end point at Great Kills. His leadership on the issue would be a strong campaigning point.
The DCCC has been apparently dropping his name as someone of interest. As far back as 2005 the DCCC had been trying to recruit him.
The somewhat corresponding 60th Assembly District was carried by Harrison with 57% and Barbaro with 54%. If McMahon could carry it with his 70% he could gain anywhere from 3,000-7,000 additional votes depending on turnout. That could amount to a 2-3% increase based on 2006 results.
Why he might not be the nominee
McMahon is a partner in the law firm of O'Leary, McMahon and Spero. In his current role as a member of city council he is able to continue practicing law and earning income from his law firm. He would have to give this up if he were elected to Congress. The base city council salary is $112,000 whereas the base congressional salary is around $175,000. This difference may be enough to allow him to give up the law firm and afford to raise a family in New York City.
His wife Judith Novellino McMahon is currently serving as a Civil Court judge and is running for the state Supreme Court in this fall. Mike McMahon has indicated he intends to actively campaign for his wife which may be difficult if he is involved in a Congressional race. The two also have two children. The prospects of his wife obtaining a higher judicial role and him splitting time between DC and Staten Island may not be enticing for their family.
McMahon has often been mentioned as a likely candidate for the Staten Island Borough Presidency race in 2009. This would allow him to stay home yet continue his political involvement in the district and is possibly more appealing than DC.
He would start a congressional campaign with no money.
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Mike Cusick is a State Assembly member representing the 63rd Assembly District covering mid island of Staten Island. His district is overlapped on the congressional district (green below);
From his Assembly bio;
Prior to his election, Cusick served as Director of Constituent Services for U.S. Senator Charles E. Schumer.
snip
He was instrumental in researching and developing statewide legislation, including the law to close the Fresh Kills Landfill.
Assemblymember Cusick was first elected to the Assembly in 2002 and has won re-election in 2004 and 2006. He is up for re-election this November.
2006
Cusick (D, I, C, WFP): 62% (13,086)
Grossman (R): 38% (5,775)
Congressional totals in the 63 AD
Harrison (D, WFP): 44% (8,547)
Vito (R, I, C): 56% (11,215)
Why he could be the nominee
Cusick represents the mid-island which separates the very Democratic North Shore from the very Republican South Shore. He has a large amount of bi-partisan appeal, needed to hold this seat. In 2006 he was endorsed by both the Independence and Conservative Parties who had endorsed Rep. Fossella in the congressional race. While Rep. Fossella won this Assembly District in his 2006 Congressional run, Cusick managed to get even more voters than Fossella in his down ballot race.
Rep. Anthony Weiner has publicly stated his support for Cusick and his desire that he run for this seat. While Weiner's seat is in Queens and not in this district he is considered a top tier mayoral candidate which may give his 'endorsement' additional weight and resources.
His previous boss was Sen. Schumer. Schumer could provide access to his donors, although he offered very little to Harrison after his endorsement in 2006.
The DCCC has been apparently dropping his name as someone of interest. As far back as 2005 the DCCC had been trying to recruit him.
Why he might not be the nominee
Cusick has been on everyone's short list for at least the 2006 and 2008 congressional race yet has passed on both opportunities. He has what appears to be a seat in the Assembly for as long as he wants it and would have to give that up if he ran for Congress in a general election.
If he gives up his Assembly seat it will not be as easy for Democrats to hold as Savino's senate seat or McMahon's city council seat. That said the Democrats hold a 2:1 advantage in the Assembly so this would be a minor loss for the state party.
He would start a congressional campaign with no money.
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There will be no special election unless Fossella resigns before July 1, which is not his intention.
Full Statement from Rep. Fossella;
May 20, 2008
To the Constituents of the 13th Congressional District:
After a great deal of consideration, I have made the decision not to
seek re-election to the United States House of Representatives this
November. This choice was an extremely difficult one, balanced
between my dedication to service to our great nation and the need to
concentrate on healing the wounds that I have caused to my wife and
family.
For over 10 years, I have had the distinct privilege of representing
the people of Staten Island and Brooklyn. I have been humbled by their
support and honored to represent them in Congress. Over the years, we
have achieved many great things that have helped make our community
and this country a better place to live - from closing the Fresh Kills
Landfill, to saving Fort Hamilton, to helping New York cope with the
pain and recover from the 9/11 attacks. I am extremely proud of these
and other achievements and the fact that our work has made a positive
difference in the lives of so many people.
It is for this reason that I will continue to serve you and our
community for the duration of my term, which will expire on January 3,
2009.
Despite the personal mistakes I have made, I am touched by the
outpouring of support and encouragement I have received from so many
people. Their kind words and prayers during this difficult time mean
more to me than I can express. And while many have urged me to run for
re-election, I believe this course of action is best for my family and
our community.
Representing the people of Staten Island and Brooklyn has been the
most rewarding professional experience of my life. I am forever
grateful to all those I have had the honor to serve.
Sincerely
Vito J. Fossella
Member of Congress
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