NY-26: Another Day, Another Jack Davis Mailer

a study in contrasts (0.00 / 0)

jon powers pounds the pavement and knocks on doors, often bringing other candidates along.

jack davis buys more junk mail.


TODAY is day one. It always is.

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by: phillip anderson @ Wed May 21, 2008 at 16:06:27 PM UTC

I wonder (0.00 / 0)

When does junk mail become an annoyance on the level of robocalls?  I've gotten 3 mailers in less than a week, and each time, my household has received 2.  This kind of campaign strategy is going to seem wasteful to everyone (not just a committed Powers supporter like me) very soon, I think.  How many trees? is the thought that's going to start popping into people's heads when they get their mail.

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by: Historical Pessimist @ Wed May 21, 2008 at 16:56:41 PM UTC

Good point... (0.00 / 0)

It's one thing to send out one mailer, but three in a week's time is excessive. In fact, if Jon Powers did this, I would be extremely annoyed.

My girlfriend's father has received two of these already and normally, he would just leave them in a pile of old newspapers or leave it with the other mailers he gets from insurance companies or unions.

And don't worry - Jack Davis can't run on his environmental record. Sending out three mailers is a waste.

Robocalls aren't this annoying. And at least with robocalls, you can hang up and that's the end of it.  

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by: robert.harding @ Wed May 21, 2008 at 17:23:53 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

According to Applebees America (0.00 / 0)

The Bush campaign sent target voters 50-60 pieces of mail each in 2004, each tailored to the voters interests.

They started in May.

They won.

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by: Amherst Guy @ Wed May 21, 2008 at 18:59:12 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

The Bush campaign... (0.00 / 0)

Also had volunteers on the ground though, which gives mailers more of a meaning. If all you do is send out mailers, you aren't listening to voters' concerns. You are making them read your mailer. That's why going door-to-door is effective. If you go door-to-door, you not only can inform a person about a candidate, but you can listen to that person (and take notes) about their concerns and primary issues.  

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by: robert.harding @ Wed May 21, 2008 at 19:01:42 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

I agree that (0.00 / 0)

Going door to door is far more effective than sending a mailer. Powers has that luxury, Davis does not. Davis is doing exactly the correct thing given his circumstances. Powers, even with his small army, cant possibly reach every persuadable democratic primary voter door to door, and even if they do, it wont be enough contacts with most people to matter. I worked in PA Victory 04 for John Kerry, and their mantra was that three successful volunteer door to door contacts is the minimum to make a difference. Davis is going after the remainder by mail and I'm sure eventually TV.

Starting this early is correct. Sending thirty or so mailers is correct. And I'm sure Davis will wind up airing more TV ads in his first two weeks on the air than Powers will air total, and that will be correct. He's playing the hand he's dealt and he's playing it correctly.

And scientific studies of the phenomenon of people saying that they aren't going to vote for someone because they're calling or knocking or mailing too much have shown that nearly all of those people are lying.

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by: Amherst Guy @ Wed May 21, 2008 at 19:13:34 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Take it from Howard Dean... (0.00 / 0)

Neighbor-to-neighbor contact is the way to go. Notice I didn't say "door-to-door" or "voter-to-voter." Neighbor-to-neighbor means that you are getting information on a candidate or candidates from someone you probably know instead of a college kid from a few states away or a few counties away.

Mailers are fine, and I'm sure every candidate in NY-26 will utilize them. But there is a distinct difference between utilizing and depending on them. You are giving Davis a bit of a cop out by saying he doesn't have the luxury of going door-to-door. Sure he does. If he can challenge Powers to a duel in tennis, I think he can walk a few blocks on a weekend. Again though, there is a difference between being able to do it and actually doing it.

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by: robert.harding @ Wed May 21, 2008 at 19:23:47 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

You mean President Howard Dean? (0.00 / 1)

Funny.

They said the were going to blog their way to victory, too.

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by: WNYDEM @ Wed May 21, 2008 at 20:30:42 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

You're intentionally missing the point. (0.00 / 0)

The luxury Powers enjoys is not a working pair of legs, it's a volunteer army. Davis simply can't compete on that front.

As for Davis walking - and my understanding is that he is - even if he walks a full 20 hours a week - 6:30-8:30 weekdays and 11-4 on weekends, does really well and contacts 10 voters an hour, he'll have contacted about 3000 of the expected 65000 voter turnout for the Democratic primary. The rest have to be contacted by mail and tv.

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by: Amherst Guy @ Wed May 21, 2008 at 20:51:43 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Luxury? (0.00 / 0)

  Given the sweeping endorsements that Powers has, its probably not that Davis doesn't have the 'luxury' so much as he doesn't have the ability to canvass. I don't think its going too far out on a limb to suggest that much of whatever support Jack had previously was more anti-Reynolds than pro-Jack.  My daughter, 19, hasn't really taken much (any) notice of politics till now.  But, without prompting, when someone said "Jack Davis", she responded, "millionaire Jack Davis?".  Recall that line from Tom Reynolds' radio ads during his last campaign?  That's all she remembers about Jack Davis.  Probably comes to mind just as quickly for people who paid way more attention two years ago.
  Your assertion that "it wont be enough contacts with most people to matter" might not be as solid a fact as you think.  There was next to no campaign for Davis on the ground in the GLOW Regions (Genesee,Livingston,Orleans,Wyoming) nor in the Rochester finger of the district.  While Davis did very well in Erie County, he got clobbered out this way, beyond just the Republican/Democrat ratio.  So far, Powers has canvassed the City of Batavia and the reddest town in Genesee,...wait for it...Elba. And Jack?  He told the Genesee Democratic Committee that if they endorsed him or not, he was still gonna spend $3 million.  While Jack might blanket the airwaves in Buffalo with ads, they'll be heard by people who remember that this is his third try. (Millionaire Jack Davis, anyone?)  Just as people are ready for change after this administration, I'm going to make the prediction that they won't see Jack as a change. Jack wasn't the Dem nominee because he was so beloved.  He was the nominee because the Dems wanted to force Reynolds and the RNC to spend money, and Jack came with his own money, so they said, "Boom bing bam...Jack's the nominee".
  Davis isn't so much doing the correct thing as he is doing the only thing he can.  Spend his own money.

  Don't judge other people by your own limitations.

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by: RussElba @ Wed May 21, 2008 at 20:55:39 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

you might be right. (0.00 / 0)

but nitpicking my choice of word (luxury) isn't really adding to this discussion. How about Advantage? I was never contesting the value of canvassing, and if Powers can recruit enough people to knock on 60,000 doors three times, or even half of that, he'll win easily. Duh.

The only point I was trying to make was that Jack Davis is where he is and that the things that he's doing given his position are politically correct and not incorrect.

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by: Amherst Guy @ Thu May 22, 2008 at 01:57:40 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

I think there's a difference (0.00 / 0)

  Bush was an incumbent President during a war.  Maybe that had more to do with it than the mailers?

  Don't judge other people by your own limitations.

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by: RussElba @ Wed May 21, 2008 at 19:07:00 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Read the book. (0.00 / 0)

You'll learn way more than you wanted to know. And if you're a democrat you'll probably want to cry a little.

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by: Amherst Guy @ Wed May 21, 2008 at 19:15:29 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

A subtle twist (0.00 / 0)

   Jack Davis, along with most vets, is to be commended for his service.  But, on his website, he describes himself in a way I find to be a little dissembling:
  "Men of my generation didn't write books or brag about their duty, but instead came home and tried to honor the memory of the real heroes who didn't make it home by building an America worthy of their sacrifice."
    Jack uses the phrase 'came home' as if he went to war. I'm a veteran, but I'll be the first to tell you that my five years of peace-time duty (Iran Expeditionary medal for floating in the Indian Ocean) doesn't come remotely close to equaling combat service. He's doing everything he can to tout his veteran status, yet paints other candidates as piggybacking off of or profiting from their actual combat experience. He might've been better served to pass on cloaking himself in the warrior's garb.
   Just as Senator Clinton has done, and Senator McCain seems poised to do, Jack Davis appears to be fighting the last campaign.  More than one experienced voter I talked to while canvassing made dismissive reference to a 'another damned piece of paper' they got in the mail from Jack, while saying they were impressed that another candidate had volunteers willing to walk the streets for him.  If, after 3 quick mailings, Jack starts a robocall campaign instead of the human phone-bankers that dial up voters for Powers, it means he thinks he's lost ground and can make it up by chasing Jon Powers with money. C'mon, Jack.  That's so 2004.

  Don't judge other people by your own limitations.

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by: RussElba @ Wed May 21, 2008 at 18:17:19 PM UTC

I agree (0.00 / 0)

Robocalls suck.  Canvassing makes more sense, and is more effective than an autocall without context.

Also more fun.

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by: WNYDEM @ Wed May 21, 2008 at 18:31:10 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

I remember something from Jack Davis '06. (4.00 / 1)

His website had an events tab.  In fact, I remember the words that always greeted me when I clicked on events and it was - "check back soon".  I checked back soon - I wanted to see what the candidate that I was supporting was up to. It always said the same thing - "check back soon".  I don't remember seeing one event posted on his site during the entire campaign.  

On his new website, something is obviously omitted -- the events calendar.    No events and thankfully no glaring "check back soon".  

This is the Jack Davis style. In my opinion this shows a disdain for the very basic premise of meeting and asking the people for their support.  Instead, like last time, Davis will keep the voter contact to a minimum.  "Mailbox to mailbox" - much easier work - no driving to those obscure places like Danville (Jack's pronounciation).  Jack said it himself - why should he drive across the district to meet with people that will vote for him anyway.  Jack Davis is out of touch.

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by: lorie @ Thu May 22, 2008 at 01:41:18 AM UTC

Davis is part of the problem (0.00 / 0)

After watching Jon Powers in action, boots on the ground, it's clear that he is what our district needs.  The word "Representative" is after all part of the job title Powers is the only one out there listening to the voters he wants to represent.

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by: Grievous Angel @ Thu May 22, 2008 at 21:35:54 PM UTC