Senate Targets For Democratic Takeover And Seats We Need To Hold

this is excellent stuff, robert (4.00 / 2)

you effin' rule.

TODAY is day one. It always is.

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by: phillip anderson @ Wed May 28, 2008 at 04:45:01 AM UTC

Very Nice Analysis. (4.00 / 1)

Michele Iannello is going to wipe the floor with Mike Ranzenhofer, so we're really only one away.

Are you worried at all about losing a Dem Senator? A couple others besides Aubertine are in weakish districts...

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by: Amherst Guy @ Wed May 28, 2008 at 05:29:02 AM UTC

honestly, (4.00 / 2)

i'm more worried about kruger, carl that is. bruno has invested a ton of GOP member item money in that dude over the years. that's why i say that we need more than two. four would be better.

TODAY is day one. It always is.

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by: phillip anderson @ Wed May 28, 2008 at 05:38:10 AM UTC

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I agree... (0.00 / 0)

We should learn from our U.S. Senate that a small majority is practically no majority at all. We need a safer majority and we can do that this year.  

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by: robert.harding @ Wed May 28, 2008 at 05:42:38 AM UTC

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Michele has to make it first... (0.00 / 0)

I like Michele. I really do. She has a lot to offer. Unlike Dan Ward, she is not a career politician and has shown that she is working harder than Mesi. I have met all three candidates, as I have said time and time again. If any of the three became the nominee, we win. I'm not just saying that because I love Democrats. I'm saying that because I love these candidates. If only we could spread them around to other districts. (Note: Can you imagine Mesi vs. Maziarz? I would love that.)

Ranzenhofer is weak. Whenever you settle for a candidate, you are going to lose. I have learned that quickly in politics. You should not settle for candidates. The GOP has settled on Ranzenhofer and will lose in November.  

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by: robert.harding @ Wed May 28, 2008 at 05:48:51 AM UTC

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SD-51... (4.00 / 1)

I might sound like a loon, but we cannot overlook SD-51. Don Barber is as good as they come. Comparisons to Darrel Aubertine may or may not be warranted, but if you want to win Republican districts, you need candidates like Don Barber.  

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by: robert.harding @ Wed May 28, 2008 at 05:57:24 AM UTC

Don Barber gaining strength in SD-51 (4.00 / 2)

Robert is right.  Don Barber is formidable candidate.  As more and more is uncovered about Seward people are switching to Barber.  Seward has done very little for the middle class in his 22-year reign as a state senator.  Health care, environment, controlled spending, lowering taxes, energy conservation and renewable energy - all topics Seward is so very weak on.  The Drum Major Institute for Public Policy gave Seward a failing grade for supporting legislation for the middle class - 29 - lower than other Republican senators.  Seward needs to be retired.  Smiling for the camera while handing out checks just doesn't cut it any longer while having his other hand in the wallets of the middle class is pathetic and down right deceiving.  Also remember Seward is a strong supporter of Bush and GW's policies.  Very scary!

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by: otsegoblue @ Wed May 28, 2008 at 11:41:05 AM UTC

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Behind Barber, we can blast through the Roadblock to Reform (4.00 / 1)

Seward is playing defense for the insurance industry, against the peoples' interests... this is not just about winning a seat, it is about removing a "roadblock to reform,"  as explained here.

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by: robinia @ Wed May 28, 2008 at 11:56:20 AM UTC

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Yep. (4.00 / 1)

Not only is Barber a spectacular candidate (and he is-- I've watched him for years, and he is), but Seward is genuinely really bad (and he is-- I've watched him for years....). already, a big chunk of voters are not voting for Seward-- more every election.  This district is filled with voters just begging for a chance at change.  Yes, we can.

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by: robinia @ Wed May 28, 2008 at 11:44:01 AM UTC

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What about Paterson? (0.00 / 0)

I'm starting to get very worried that Paterson really doesn't want the pressure that will come with the end of divided government. He's very chummy with Bruno these days, and he's not out there championing the cause of taking back the Senate, either. Then the other day the Rochester paper quoted Malcolm Smith saying very complimentary things about Dale Volker, our entrenched GOP Senator and Bruno right-hand man. (He got a real scare in a primary last cycle, so the absence of a viable Democratic challenger this time is truly puzzling.)

The pressure to actually produce reform results might be something that the Democratic powers that be don't really want, so they're ok with a slight GOP majority in the Senate. They can still get most of the things they want, and have someone else to blame for the things they don't want to do themselves. And it continues to disguise how much of a problem the Assembly is, from a good government standpoint.

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by: Historical Pessimist @ Wed May 28, 2008 at 12:25:46 PM UTC

Still don't see it happening (0.00 / 0)

Most of the Dem's contenders will have expensive and dividing primaries.  Baby Joe has the WF line, If Michele win primary makes it a 3 way race.  SD 15 will be a 3 way, Baldeo is not going any where.  Foley and Dahroug will again waste resources before the battle against Trunzo.  Padavan is solid and strong as is Lanza.  SD 48 is not going to change. Seward will get 60% of vote. GOP is going to spread Dems thin by making spend money to protect Suzi,Liz,Craig,Andrea,Stachowski.  At best a one seat gain by the Dems.

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by: noel951 @ Wed May 28, 2008 at 13:44:35 PM UTC

Ok... (4.00 / 1)

There have been three way races before. The dynamics of SD-61 are interesting. There are Republicans who like Joe Mesi and what he has to offer - especially, Republican men. It is clear that not too many people are thrilled with the Ranzenhofer candidacy. That support could be tossed Joe's way, which makes things more interesting.

SD-15 is very winnable. I don't see the problem with a three-way race. Unless that third person is viable, there should be no problem for either side really.

SD-3 is also winnable. You could say every primary is a waste of resources, but I also think it makes you stronger as a candidate. I think the NY-26 primary is the biggest waste of resources I've ever seen. But when Jon Powers wins, he will be better for it. Same goes in SD-3.

Padavan will have a fight on his hands. This race will not be a cake walk for him.

I mentioned SD-48 because the GOP had their sights on it for awhile. Whether that has changed (Renzi isn't exactly Jim Wright) I don't know.

If Seward gets 60 percent of the vote, I would be shocked.

Stachowski's seat is a safe Democratic seat. His competitor is a cop who has no political knowledge and clearly a poor handle on the issues. When you say you are going to Albany to investigate the problem, that means you don't what the problems are. Stachowski will win that in his sleep.

Sen. Johnson's opponent is a joke. She has money and they aren't going to take her lightly, but she is having trouble garnering support. Johnson wins that race any day.  

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by: robert.harding @ Wed May 28, 2008 at 14:01:12 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

You Forget (0.00 / 0)

Mesi has no experience at all in politics, I don't think he will win the primary, but most of the votes he gets in November will cost Michele.  Baldeo has a following in SD 15 will lost the primary but vows to fight on, Serf could get by with 45% of the vote.  Suzi will win but she will cry to get resources, she has wanted to retire since 2000.  Frank and Caeser have lifetime jobs, however when they retire there seats may change.  Will be fun to watch this like the National Dems, the NYS have a lot of in fighting which could cost them success.  I was wondering why Tom Morohan and Martin Golden who are out enrolled 2-1 are going to get a free pass.

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by: noel951 @ Wed May 28, 2008 at 15:29:16 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

When does that matter? (4.00 / 1)

I know Mesi doesn't have political experience, but he isn't an idiot. Mesi, from what I gathered, is fairly moderate although he does have a left lean here and there. That's also what will draw him to Republicans (besides the obvious name recognition).

Will he cost Michele? Definitely. But he will hurt Ranzenhofer too. When Republicans are saying quietly that they like Mesi, that tells you something.

I remember when it was being said that we were going to focus solely on Long Island/downstate races. The problem with saying that out loud is that things change. At the time, SD-51 wasn't viable. But I do believe that with the success in SD-48, you have to consider it. You have two upstate races (SD-56 and SD-61) that we can win.

Don't get me wrong - I want to win the seats downstate that we can win. I'm not in the business of passing over upstate races just because there might not be an enrollment advantage there. Even in my red county, Democratic enrollment is increasing at a faster rate than Republican enrollment. I've heard similar stories from other counties.

Certainly, we aren't NYC. But we are growing in number and we are challenging Republicans like never before.

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by: robert.harding @ Wed May 28, 2008 at 15:37:45 PM UTC

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Mesi will indeed lose the primary. (0.00 / 0)

I wouldn't be surprised if he gets crushed by Iannello. A Boxer? Really?

In a low turnout primary made up of mostly old people and party loyalists - a freaking boxer is going to win?

In one of the most highly educated districts in the state - and probably the highest income upstate - a boxer is going to win?

In an election where only Democrats can vote - soccer moms and men who as kids played with erector sets instead of football - a boxer is going to win?

Anyone who thinks that Mesi has a chance is off their rocker.

Anyways, in the general, he has very weak party identification - He's a former Republican, in fact he's only been a Dem for like 3 years. Robert is right - His presence in the general will draw men in general, not Democrats, thus dooming Ranzenhofer.

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by: Amherst Guy @ Wed May 28, 2008 at 16:13:02 PM UTC

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I'm not taking sides... (0.00 / 0)

But Mesi is more than just a "freaking boxer." We can talk about name recognition, but one of the interesting things with name recognition is that the more people know you, the more they will likely listen (or not listen) to you. With Mesi, people want to listen.

I have to disagree with you on the low turnout primary. The 61st is completely inside (I could be wrong, but at least a vast majority is) the 26th congressional district. The 26th will draw a crowd. Powers supporters are passionate about his candidacy and the battle between Powers and Davis will be fierce.

This primary will be a big draw as well.  

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by: robert.harding @ Wed May 28, 2008 at 17:36:27 PM UTC

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about 75% is inside (0.00 / 0)

City and town of Tonawanda are in NY-28

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by: Amherst Guy @ Wed May 28, 2008 at 18:04:40 PM UTC

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I knew there was a part that was questionable... (0.00 / 0)

I didn't have my map in front of me to confirm. Thanks for that.  

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by: robert.harding @ Wed May 28, 2008 at 18:25:33 PM UTC

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As to your main point, (0.00 / 0)

If this was Buffalo, or Cheektowaga, or West Seneca, or Hamburg, or Lackawanna, or Most of Niagara County, I'd agree.

But outside of Tonawanda, Mesi's - and Iannello's - Home base, and, as we've established, the likely lowest turnout area, we have Clarence (rich country clubbers), Amherst (rich country clubbers), Newstead (2% of dem primary vote) and Genesee County. Orleans County is reasonibly similar to Genesee - half in Roc. media market, mostly rural - is Mesi a folk hero in your home county? Do you think that Women and farmers know his name?

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by: Amherst Guy @ Wed May 28, 2008 at 18:52:51 PM UTC

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I'll put it this way... (0.00 / 0)

There were women in Genesee County that I knew of who had no idea who this "Baby" Joe Mesi guy was. To them, he was just another candidate, which is good. That way, they don't have the bias of his boxing career to overwhelm them.

I asked my mom who Joe Mesi was. We come from a sports-oriented family. She had no clue.

The only question I have for Mesi supporters is are you supporting him for all the right reasons? Just because you loved him as a boxer doesn't mean you will love him as a representative. You have to ask that with every candidate. They might be very appealing, but are they worthy of being your representative?  

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by: robert.harding @ Wed May 28, 2008 at 19:18:26 PM UTC

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Wrong... (0.00 / 0)

... you're just wrong.  You'll see on Election Day.

Now if you were to predict that the new Democratic majority in the state senate wouldn't provide enough votes to pass a marriage equality bill -- at least until 2011 (at the earliest) -- you would very very right about that.

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by: homoaffectional @ Sat Jun 07, 2008 at 01:11:19 AM UTC

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Thanks for doing this, man (4.00 / 1)

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by: Roatti @ Wed May 28, 2008 at 14:56:03 PM UTC

Barber's energy is incredible (4.00 / 3)

Don Barber is on the road meeting people and listening to their concerns.  People want CHANGE in Albany.  Seward is getting further and further away from the middle class. Picture this as I wrote before, Smilin' Jim with a "pork money" check in one hand buying votes while his other hand is reaching into our wallets taking our hard earned money.  This guy could have done so much but instead was too comfortable and complacent, assured that NO ONE would ever run against him. Seward is one of the laziest legislators, never working hard for health care reform, pushing for energy conservation and renewable energy, and on and on.  
Barber is gaining folks by the day!!!  

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by: otsegoblue @ Wed May 28, 2008 at 15:15:50 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Barber is going to win (4.00 / 1)

I don't know that for sure, mind you.  He has all the right stuff to get it done.  Money (more is needed), organization, buzz, a great candidate, good on the issues, etc.  The senate district is represented by four Dem members of Congress, Hinchey, Arcuri, Gillibrand and McNulty.

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by: jmcbride @ Wed May 28, 2008 at 17:52:47 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Great Update, Robert! (4.00 / 2)

I see noe1951 has returned to the site with some more naysayer views on the Democrats prospects for the senate.  I missed noe1951 ever since Aubertine's win in February.  noe1951 comment that the RSCC will keep Democratic resources spread thin is nothing short of laughable.  All the resources and the electorate mood is with the Democrats and will support the efforts for the state senate.  noe1951 continues to mention Democrats like Suzi Oppenheimer as vulnerable.  None of them are and in fact with Darrel drawing a weak opponent along with Johnson and the none Spano challenge to Stewart-Cousin, all thirty Democrats are safe.  noe1951 also mentions some laughable concepts in my SD#3 backyard.  The concept that a primary will drain Foley for the general is ludicrous.  He has more than 3x the COH of his opponents, plenty for the primary and the full commitment of the WFP, DSCC who recruited him to fully fund him after the primary should he prevail as is expected.  The Baldeo third party run is yet another debunked argument that noe1951 will not give up on. We are supposed to believe that in a Presidential year with a fully juiced Democratic turnout with Addabbo on the Dem and WFP and Maltese on the R, C and IP that somehow Baldeo lost somewhere on column z will even be spotted by most voters let alone receive a ten to fifteen percent vote that will be needed to block Addabbo winning.  I think Dollinger is a lock against Robach and there is a good 50/50 shot that Gennaro and the open 61 will be pickups.  I just hope that noe1951 is as accurate on these predictions as noe1951 was when predicting the Aubertine and Johnson specials and Andrea Stewart-Cousins win in 2006!

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by: politics64 @ Wed May 28, 2008 at 19:42:58 PM UTC

noel951 likes to be wrong... (0.00 / 0)

... I'm beginning to think.

If he wanted to naysay about something and be right, he would pick the chances of passing a marriage equality bill just because the Democrats will have taken the state senate by next January... because he would be right about that one.

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by: homoaffectional @ Sat Jun 07, 2008 at 01:13:25 AM UTC

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