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Malcom Smith: "a zone of potential agreement" With AT LEAST Two GOP Senators

by: phillip anderson

Mon Feb 05, 2007 at 09:44:56 AM EST


I really want to keep the focus today on what we can do to get Craig Johnson elected to the state Senate tomorrow, but this is important, too. This morning's Newsday contains a piece about the final days of the special election in the 7th District that quotes Senate Minority Leader Malcom Smith as telling a church congregation in Westbury yesterday that, should Craig Johnson win that seat, that AT LEAST two Gop Senators may be induced to switch parties.

Down to the wire in 7th

Remark by Senate's minority leader that a Johnson win could mean a black majority leader irks Republicans

Senate Minority Leader Malcolm Smith told a Westbury congregation yesterday that, should Craig Johnson win the special election, at least two Senate Republicans could switch parties and he could become the first black State Senate majority leader.

...

Smith said in an interview after he spoke that there is a "zone of potential agreement" in which at least two GOP senators would switch parties, enough to give Democrats control of the Senate for the first time in decades because Lt. Gov. David Paterson would cast the deciding vote.

"There are a few that are floating in the ZOPA," he said. He would not give details about the Republican legislators who might switch.

Who are these two Senators? Why exactly would they be willing to flip? Should reformers welcome this move? Was John McArdle just born that way?

My thoughts on the flip...

phillip anderson :: Malcom Smith: "a zone of potential agreement" With AT LEAST Two GOP Senators
First, let me just say that I agree with those who may accuse me of putting the cart before the horse here. This entire scenario is largely predicated on Craig Johnson winning the special election tomorrow and many of us have been working hard to make that happen. Some may feel that this is a distraction from those efforts and they are probably right. But, I think this needs to be discussed sooner rather than later. Plus, it's yet another excuse to quote my dear friend John McArdle.

As for the first question, "who exactly are these two Senators?" I have some guesses, but they're probably wrong. I have heard Bonacic's name floated a few times. He has certainly not made any friends in his own caucus this term and lord knows Susan Zimet gave him one hell of a scare last cycle. That said, I have my doubts that he is one of the two floating in the "ZOPA". Any further speculation by me would be pure guesswork. Maybe you have some ideas?

As for the second question, I think that's pretty obvious. I think that if there are indeed to Senators willing to flip, they would be doing so as a measure of pure self preservation. The days of GOP control of the state Senate are numbered and everybody knows it. Being in the minority sucks and those that have spent their entire careers in the majority know that better than anyone. A win tomorrow most likely will spur some retirements later this year. There are plenty of Senators who have been there for decades and have never experienced not controlling the Senate. They probably don't want to experience that either. And then there are those who want to continue in the Senate, but are perfectly willing to switch sides to keep the perks of the majority.

Should reformers welcome them? I don't want to speak for all, but this reformer most likely wouldn't. At least I wouldn't support them next cycle. Sure, let them switch and vote for new leadership and new rules. Let them send Joe Bruno to the minority while he waits to get his ticket punched to prison.

Then it's put up or shut up time for lots of folks, including the switchers and, honestly, I'm not all that optimistic about even many Democrats once the barrier to reform that is the GOP controlled Senate is removed. I just don't trust those that built this system, those that created this mess, to clean it up. That goes for the folks with a new letter behind their name and for those who have been talking tough about reform for years without doing all that much to get it done no matter what party they are/were a member of.

In the end, I also don't trust those whose greatest talent is self preservation. Once you've switched parties to keep the perks, (What are those perks? Well, mostly we're talking member item dollars here) what does that say about your commitment to reforming the system you helped create? Where were you on these issues for the last few decades? What the hell took you so long?

Personally, I would support the switchers for this term and welcome them warmly. Then I would support actual reform candidates in a primary against each and every one of them. Why not get the real thing, I say.

What say you?

As for the final question...

John McArdle, a spokesman for Senate Majority Leader Joseph Bruno (R-Brunswick), called Smith's claim "flat-out not true."

"It's ridiculous," he said. "It's almost laughable. It's wishful thinking on his part."

I think the answer is obvious. Johnny boy was indeed just born that way. He can't help it.

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Let's win this one tomorrow... (4.00 / 5)
First on the list. I'll be heading out to The 7th District.

Once that is done, then we can deal with the reprocussions. I have strong feelings about this issue because I'm a reformer and the majority party, complete with potential switchers, have shown no desire to make the system more open and accountable...in fact, they have fought against it for decades. The most recent episode being the vote this past January to maintain the old rules...the old way of doing business that has maintained the Three Men In A Room status quo.

Now they have suddenly seen the light and are will to walk the walk...? (only when their perks have been threatened?)

I'm with lipris. We can't stop switchers, but that doesn't finish the job.

If there are switchers, I hope they get primaried by some real reformers and we can truely change the face of our state government.

BUT...let's win this one tomorrow.

We've got some work ahead of us.


i agree about tomorrow (4.00 / 1)
and tried to state in this post just how important i believe this race to be, but malcom smith himself brought this up in a public forum and i believe that this does indeed need to be addressed.

that said, let's go out and win this thing, then let's keep a critical eye out for the fallout. the switchers are coming. we need to be ready for that.

TODAY is day one. It always is.


[ Parent ]
it's OK with me (4.00 / 3)
as long as one of those Senators isn't Steve Saland! :)

cheers,

C.


[ Parent ]
My biggest concern (4.00 / 6)
...is that they'll keep the strong-leader system in place and just switch the nameplates on the doors. That's not change.

I talked to Malcolm's press people right after he won the leadership spot, and they said he was, quote, "100% behind the Brennan Center reforms".

I'm more than willing to work my butt off to get these guys in office, but not so that we can have the same system in place. There needs to be real reform, right now, if not, what's the point?


bingo. (0.00 / 0)
spot on.

TODAY is day one. It always is.

[ Parent ]
Of Course (0.00 / 0)
Of Course he is behind it 100%. We are not politically naive, here! Yes, it is the right decision, but more important politically, it is the popular position. He can afford to take the popular position because he is not part of the majority. He can stay an outsider in the minority and point the blame on the majority. Lip service is great, but if he become the majority leader we shall see if he is really %100 or more like 37%!!!

[ Parent ]
and that's the point... (0.00 / 0)
....the status quo lets everyone hide. Now you're on to it, ax. That's why the dynamic has to change. So no one can hide.

We've got some work ahead of us.

[ Parent ]
I'm Not Even Sure . . . (0.00 / 0)
. . . that Sen. Smith's remark won't end up having some form of backlash.  While on the one hand it could help to galvanize voters to turn out for Johnson tomorrow in the hopes that it could mean a Democratic majority right away, rather than in two years, it could also push desperate Republicans into making O'Connell their "Last Stand", as they see their majority power slipping away.  (If they do, of course, they'd be wise to remember how that one turned out for Gen. Custer.)

Or it could well be that residents of the 7th District simply won't have time to absorb Smith's comment, given the close proximity of Election Day.

And to everyone who's actually braving the weather today to campaign for Johnson, I salute you with a big mug of hot chocolate!


Who? (0.00 / 0)
Speculation around these parts is that Joe Robach of Rochester is one senator who might switch parties (after all, he used to be a Dem. in the Assembly and switched parties when he ran for Senate so he's be in the majority). But he is one of those "moderates" whose p.r. hides a pretty conservative voting record, so I don't know if I put much credence in these rumors.

One thing I would put money one, though, is that very powerful Bruno henchman Dale Volker of Erie County will retire if he finds himself as part of the Senate minority. Word around here is that he has wanted to retire for years, but that Bruno wouldn't let him, not wanting another open seat to defend when the margin was so tight. However, it is a ridiculously gerrymandered district, and I have trouble believing the next occupant wouldn't be a Republican.


i've heard that same retirement story (0.00 / 0)
about at least three different republican senators now. seriously. i think they are all true, too. if bruno loses this seat, watch for a slew of retiring incumbents. they can see the writing on the wall as well as anyone.

TODAY is day one. It always is.

[ Parent ]
Can You Say BS? (0.00 / 0)
I think Smith's insider info is complete BS. It is merely his way to galvanize Dems to get out the vote. Not saying there is anything wrong with that, but two senators are not party swapping. End of story. I just don't believe it. As far as retiring, well that is another story. I could see that happening.

Also, I'm a little put off by my understanding from this posting that he made race an issue that irks the republicans. What irks Bruno, I am sure, is the fact that any Dem could take his place.But please, please, pleas, racism and prejudice are nasty enough. Fuel does not need to be added to that fire. There are plenty of people and "leaders" (who do not need to be named) that use race as a sword to divide people or for their own self gain. Stomp out racism, but don't make this about race. The Reps will be sore losers no matter what sex or color the winner is.

 


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