| Now that the big Democratic primary for President is over with Hillary Clinton suspending her campaign this weekend, it's time to turn our primary-attention to races for Congress and state houses. First question on the list: how does Hillary's exit and Barack Obama's triumph affect the many Democratic primaries that are still ongoing?
In New York's 21st Congressional District, the question has greater weight: candidate Tracey Brooks, the only woman in a field of eight other men seeking retiring Representative Mike McNulty's seat, has made the fact that she served as an aide to Senator Clinton a centerpiece of her campaign.
It remains unclear how much help Clinton can provide Brooks in a primary, though. Some observers wonder whether the former first lady will be spending the next several months in New York helping local candidates, or in battleground states she won in the primary, such as Pennsylvania or Ohio, supporting Obama.
So does Hillary's exit help or hurt the Congressional hopeful from Albany? The Times Union considered this question just before Clinton's exit: Feel free to join the discussion below the fold. |
| That's the big question mark in everybody's mind right now. If she holds true to what she said in her speech Saturday, then she'll be choosing the latter. The Presidency is probably more important to her, close to her heart even, and much work needs to be done by her to repair any damage her campaign has inflicted on Obama's chances. In that case, stopping by Albany to campaign for Tracey Brooks doesn't seem too likely.
A stump stop by Hillary for Brooks would definitely help out if the Senator makes time for her former staffer. Still, it wouldn't be the be-all-end-all.
Ultimately, though, local elections can be won or lost on turnout, financial resources, and candidates' get-out-the-vote efforts.
In the financial resources department in New York's 21st, Phil Steck lead the pack in the first quarter, with Brooks close behind. Darius Shahinfar has raised considerably less, and Lester Freeman below him. Paul Tonko and Craig Burridge are recent entries, so their money muscle remains to be seen; however, Burridge has already tapped into nationwide contributors and the Times Union touches on Tonko's unique advantage:
That may be a key factor in the 21st Congressional District primary, where one of Brooks' strongest competitors, former Assemblyman Paul Tonko, can tap into his allies from years in the Assembly. Brooks, on the other hand, may be getting some $400,000 or more from Emily's List, according to a source who is following the race, but is not directly involved.
That's a large chunk of change; only Phil Steck passed the $200,000 fund-raising threshold in March. It's beginning to look like this primary could become a mult-million dollar race, and it will be interesting to see where it's coming from.
This is particularly true for Brooks now that Hillary Clinton is suspending her campaign considering the close connection between the Senator and the candidate. In the 21st, I've heard chatter that proposes two possibilities:
First is that the Clinton money "dries up" and so does the Brooks campaign. I find that hard to give much validity, but it would be very revealing were it to actually happen.
Otherwise, it's Brooks' continuing her run as Hillary suspends hers that shows resiliency. This is probably what the purported "front-runner" needs after being the cause of controversy after her supporters walked out of the Democratic Committee meeting of the district's majority-population county.
Having Hillary stop by and campaign for Tracey wouldn't hurt, either, of course, but only insiders would know if that's even a possibility.
Personally, I'd like to see Hillary come back home and work for all of New York State and really show that she's committed to the State and the Party by stumping for Democratic State Senate candidates. The Times Union touched on this briefly and offers a nice break from a very active primary for Congress:
Some observers say Clinton's exit could soften the Democratic turnout in state Senate races where Republicans are defending a 32-30 majority. But other note the state's diversity means each race is unique.
At this time, campaigns across the country are assessing the impact of Hillary's exit. The race in New York's 21st is made more unique by the very close connection between the presidential-runner-up and the only woman in a field of nine. |