New York State Senate Races: Western New York

by: robert.harding

Tue Jun 10, 2008 at 00:22:31 AM EDT

There are only two Democratic senators (Bill Stachowski from the 58th Senate District and Sen. Antoine Thompson in the 60th Senate District) in the Western New York area. The rest are Republican senators and a few of them are vulnerable and one seat (61st Senate District) that is an open seat.

Here is a look at these districts.

53rd Senate District
Incumbent: Sen. George Winner, Republican
Challenger: No filings as of yet

ENROLLMENT
Democrats	Republicans	Independence	Conservative	Working Families	Green	Libertarian	Rent Is Too High	Socialist Workers	Blanks	TOTAL
57,149	74,743	7,031	1,998	683	1,097	46	0	0	32,982	175,729

NOTES: Winner is a safe incumbent who has no apparent challenger yet. He was a long-time assemblyman who took over the Senate seat when Rep. Randy Kuhl ran for Congress.

Race Ranking: Safe Republican

54th Senate District
Incumbent: Sen. Michael Nozzolio, Republican
Challenger: Paloma Capanna, Democrat

ENROLLMENT
Democrats	Republicans	Independence	Conservative	Working Families	Green	Libertarian	Rent Is Too High	Socialist Workers	Blanks	TOTAL
56,187	75,050	7,708	3,852	615	596	40	0	0	42,659	186,707

NOTES: Capanna is a terrific candidate. There is no doubt about that. Nozzolio is a strong incumbent and has a strong bankroll to run on ($519,828.59 cash on hand as of January) while Capanna had over $13,000 cash on hand as of January. I don't believe Capanna has to raise more money than Nozzolio, but she does need more to justify this race as a serious challenge. All the cards are there for her, but she needs more cash.  

Race Ranking: A race to watch. (Note: A race to watch, at least in this context, is a race that really can't be designated yet until a few factors can be determined.)

More analysis over the fold.

Race Ranking: Toss up

56th Senate District
Incumbent: Sen. Joe Robach, Republican
Challenger: Rick Dollinger, Democrat

ENROLLMENT
Democrats	Republicans	Independence	Conservative	Working Families	Green	Libertarian	Rent Is Too High	Socialist Workers	Blanks	TOTAL
77,295	44,902	5,562	2,714	640	681	46	0	0	38,170	170,010

NOTES: Dollinger is very familiar with this Senate district as it is comparable to the old 54th Senate District Dollinger represented from 1993 to 2003. Robach used to be a Democrat but switched sides and has served as senator of the 56th district since 2003. He will face a difficult challenge from Dollinger, who brings name recognition and a record as a state senator. This race will be an expensive one and the enrollment advantage goes to the Democrats. A lot of factors are in Dollinger's corner with this race. This is a huge race to target for us.

Race Ranking: Toss up.

57th Senate District
Incumbent: Sen. Catharine Young, Republican
Challenger: None

ENROLLMENT
Democrats	Republicans	Independence	Conservative	Working Families	Green	Libertarian	Rent Is Too High	Socialist Workers	Blanks	TOTAL
58,673	70,494	7,970	3,622	820	468	48	0	0	37,252	179,347

NOTES: Young is safe. This district isn't as Republican as it looks, but Young ran unopposed in 2006. It will take time, but if we can chip away at Young, there could be a takeover down the road. Right now though, it's not a target.

Race Ranking: Safe Republican.

58th Senate District
Incumbent: Sen. Bill Stachowski, Democrat
Challenger: Dennis Delano, Republican

ENROLLMENT
Democrats	Republicans	Independence	Conservative	Working Families	Green	Libertarian	Rent Is Too High	Socialist Workers	Blanks	TOTAL
109,577	45,281	7,471	5,192	920	513	3	0	0	33,421	202,378

NOTES: Delano is a cold case detective who has gained notoriety and name recognition. He decided to challenge Stachowski on the Republican line. Stachowski has incumbency and a huge Democratic enrollment advantage on his side.

Race Ranking: Safe Democratic.

59th Senate District
Incumbent: Sen. Dale Volker, Republican
Challenger: Tom Casey

ENROLLMENT
Democrats	Republicans	Independence	Conservative	Working Families	Green	Libertarian	Rent Is Too High	Socialist Workers	Blanks	TOTAL
64,032	81,471	8,353	5,219	731	587	10	0	0	43,048	203,451

NOTES: Volker is as volatile as you can make a Republican. The surprising thing is that no one has taken advantage of Volker's unpredictable ways. This district is a Republican district, but stranger things have happened.

Race Ranking: Safe Republican.

Incumbent: Sen. Antoine Thompson, Democrat
Challenger: No filings as of yet

ENROLLMENT
Democrats	Republicans	Independence	Conservative	Working Families	Green	Libertarian	Rent Is Too High	Socialist Workers	Blanks	TOTAL
127,619	29,298	5,160	1,889	1,063	665	4	0	0	27,288	192,986

NOTES: Thompson filled some big shoes in 2006 when he replaced Byron Brown as the 60th Senate District's senator. He has done a terrific job and is a pretty safe bet for reelection. This is a Buffalo-area district that is very Democratic. Thompson will keep this seat as long as he wants it.

Race Ranking: Safe Democratic.

61st Senate District
OPEN SEAT
Candidates: Mike Ranzenhofer, Republican
Michele Iannello, Democrat
Joe Mesi, Democrat
Dan Ward, Democrat

ENROLLMENT
Democrats	Republicans	Independence	Conservative	Working Families	Green	Libertarian	Rent Is Too High	Socialist Workers	Blanks	TOTAL
78,163	84,731	7,692	3,967	637	566	15	0	1	41,400	217,172

NOTES: Ranzenhofer was the fourth or fifth choice by the Republicans. He has been a long-time Erie County legislator. Iannello is a Democratic Erie County legislator who has being working hard throughout the district. Mesi has been canvassing throughout the district too and has immediate name recognition because of his career as a professional boxer. Ward is a long-time Erie County Democrat who has ran for all kinds of offices (County Executive, Assembly, Town Board). He is very qualified and brings a lot to the table.

That said, the GOP has a small enrollment advantage and the Democrats have the best candidates. This will be interesting. This is a seat we can win in November.

Race Ranking: Leans Democratic.

62nd Senate District
Incumbent: Sen. George Maziarz, Republican
Challenger: Don Hobel, Conservative/Democrat

ENROLLMENT
Democrats	Republicans	Independence	Conservative	Working Families	Green	Libertarian	Rent Is Too High	Socialist Workers	Blanks	TOTAL
64,455	72,942	6,800	4,049	979	485	29	0	0	37,768	187,507

NOTES: Why Maziarz hasn't faced any serious challenges over the years boggles my mind. (Note: This is my home district.) The enrollment advantage is not terribly Republican but he has enjoyed a strong incumbent advantage. Hobel, who is aiming to run on the Conservative and Democratic Party lines, is or was a Conservative Party committeeman locally. He has been a huge proponent for IDA reform.

Race Ranking: Safe Republican.

Western New York will have a lot to offer in the fall when it comes to taking back the Senate. Monroe County has two races that could be considered "top-tier" and the 61st Senate District will be a huge race being that it is an open seat. Out of all the areas in New York, there is nowhere else I'd rather be. This is going to be a hotbed of political activity over the next five months.

Got questions or comments? E-mail me at robert.harding22@gmail.com.