First, the basics.
Enrollment:
D-58856
R-77258
C-6621
All Others-75063
2006 Results:
Bruno: 70,156
No One: 48,608
The enrollment looks good and the Results indicate that the seat is not as popular for the Republicans as one might expect. Bruno couldn't even get 60% of the people who voted to pull his lever.
The best indicator of what the seat will do in a competitive race, however, is not Joe Bruno's 2006 numbers, but rather what the voters did in the most recent competitive races - for most of the district, the Sweeney-Gillibrand race of 2006.
Despite the enrollment disadvantage, Democrats actually did extraordinarily well in 2006.
Gillibrand: 40830 (54%)
Sweeney: 34684 (46%)
McNulty: 24588 (79%)
Redlich: 6548 (21%)
The 43rd district actually performed two percent better for each Democrat than each did CD-wide. Overall, the district voted 61-39 for the Democrat in congressional races in 2006.
One more stat.
Bush/Cheney - 72258 (50.5%)
Kerry/Edwards - 70716 (49.5%)
Kerry took 260 more D line votes than Bush did R line votes.
You tell me if this district is in play. |
