| The district is a moderate suburban one with just over half its population in Islip Town and just under half in Brookhaven Town. The nomination and recruitment of Brian Foley, Brookhaven Supervisor was the culmination of hard work by the DSCC and its campaign management firm in partnership with the WFP. Their efforts as well as my own are one of getting a definite winning candidate against 36 year incumbent Caesar Trunzo.
Islip Supervisor, Phil Nolan and his Town Board Democratic majority have backed Brian Foley and supported his fundraisers. The local Islip Town Committee is behind Supervisor Nolan. Ivan Young, a very nice man, found himself as an emergency Town Leader when Pat Halcrow resigned the post on short notice in 2006. Young has had very little experience in the post and was left very bitter that he was not given advance notice of Brian Foley's intentions to run. The lemon juice left in his mouth from that left him no choice but to save face and endorse Dahroug, who comes from the same township as Young. His endorsement brings with it virtually no additional town committee or voting public support as Ivan's own name recognition is nil to none.
As for Ricardo Montano, he has been on the outs with the Democratic majority in the County Legislature as well as County Executive Steve Levy for some time now. He ran for this nomination in 06 and divided the districts Latino votes with converted Republican David Ochoa. Montano raises little money as he is in a one party minority majority district and has been without a competitive election since his initial victory. His fundraising for the state senate has been almost nonexistent in the 06 and 08 efforts with only about 3-4 K in his coffers. He had no support for this race between Foley and Dahroug as evidenced by his withdrawal one week before petition filing deadline and with all the Democratic elected leadership behind Foley that Montano with his only move which was to endorse Dahroug. Montano, not unlike Assemblyman Phil Ramos, is likely to be primaried out of office come his next election. Waldo Cabrera is presently looking to unseat Ramos with the support of the Brentwood Hispanic Democratic Club and CE Steve Levy.
Ramos fell out with Levy after he threatened to block state legislative approval to continue the county sales tax (its major budget source) over Levy's support of anti loitering laws to curtail public hangout areas for undocumented day workers. Montano fell out over similar opposition to Levy on this and placement of a hiring hall for the undocumented workers. The Ramos issue is complicated by the facts that he has developed an awful reputation for constituency services with many complaints that calls and letters to him are never answered or responded to. It lead his neighboring Assembly Democrat, Ginny Fields to call on removing Ramos as the Democratic candidate in the upcoming election. Ramos sales tax revenue threat would have cost local homeowners an additional 300 million in property taxes. This issue did not play well in this majority Latino Assembly seat that also shares similar boundaries to Montano's seat because here. unlike NYC, most Latinos are middle income homeowners who have to pay these taxes. Also, unlike NYC Latinos, this districts Latino population was largely Republican in the 1990's but have in recent years come around to re-register as Democrats over working class, economic and pro labor issues that our party so well represents. As an aside, using recent party switching allegations as an excuse not to vote for a candidate does not play very meaningfully in this district either.
So now you have the "on the ground" background to these endorsements and their lack of meaningful impact on the SD3 campaign. Dahroug over performed in 2006 with a Democratic wind at his back. His GE vote was not a pro Jimmy, pro-progressive vote as it was an anti Trunzo, anti Republican vote and Jimmy still came up short. Even after two runs he still has low name recognition and remains a weak November choice in the eyes of the DSCC consultants and the WFP. Foley scores high on these name recognition, issue and past electability scores. Foley in a GE gets all the 06 Dahroug vote plus a chunk of Trunzo vote who want an alternative to Caesar based on positive issue differences. Dahroug won a primary in 06 running against two largely unknown(keep in mind Montano only represented 25% of the Senate seat and had no challengers in his past races to raise his profile) Latinos who split that vote. Foley has name recognition, organization, resources, proven election experience and as such will win this primary decisively 75%-25%. Steak dinners for all who want to bet me! |
