SD-62: More On The 62nd Senate District

as someone said in the earlier thread (0.00 / 0)

maziarz will probably win big anyway. ok, i guess. my question is this: why must we continue to make it easy for him?

TODAY is day one. It always is.

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by: phillip anderson @ Tue Jul 22, 2008 at 15:05:09 PM UTC

Poor leadership (4.00 / 3)

That's what it comes down. There was one name being tossed around as a possible candidate: Margo Sue Bittner. The reasons why she ended up not running are unclear, but a possibility was because of her disappointment with the current Democratic leadership in Niagara County. At the time, that's what was being tossed around.

I can remember when Bittner's name was being mentioned, Dan Rivera (Niagara County chair) claimed that there were other candidates who expressed interest. Nothing ever came of that. I have a feeling that the other candidates were only interested if Maziarz were to run for Congress.

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by: robert.harding @ Tue Jul 22, 2008 at 15:14:05 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Trying to be subtle in my previous comment... (4.00 / 1)

but, as usual, Robert is telling it straight.  We need to build the party in rural areas, so that less of this kind of stuff happens.  Sometimes, the party infrastructure in these places is a Dem candidate's worst enemy.  They have developed an attitude of "fighting the good-- but hopeless-- good fight" and have no tools-- or attitude-- for mounting a serious challenge.

The Bittners are high-powered leaders with a lot of different irons in various fires.  A poor-job run at public office would have been a negative in their other endeavors.  However, I think that Margo Sue Bittner, with even a reasonable level of party support, could have run an excellent campaign.  I hope somebody up there sees the error of their ways, and goes back to her and begs her to work with them to make a go of it the next time "boss Tweed" comes up for re-coronation.

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by: robinia @ Tue Jul 22, 2008 at 15:47:43 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Building the rural parties (4.00 / 1)

I believe it was Margo Sue Bittner who presented gifts to Governor Paterson and Sen. Schumer in Batavia. What does that tell you? She's no pushover. She would be formidable.

I think Margo could have run a great campaign and she would have had plenty of backing. The problem is she apparently didn't have the support of the Niagara County Democrats or Dan Rivera - whichever is more important to getting through in Niagara County.

There are two issues with rural Democratic parties. Actually, there are probably more, but these are the ones I see.

(1) It is easy for one person to become a unitary leader of a party and make all the decisions. When you have a rural party and not too many people are actively involved, one person can rule to roost. Sure, you might have members of the committee but you don't have people who are truly active helping the chair call the shots.

(2) We aren't partybuilding. I know one county (and perhaps more) that is partybuilding and that is Genesee County. The GOP has the enrollment advantage and a huge money advantage, but the Democrats in Genesee County have been successful in local elections. Now, they could be represented by a Democratic congressman (Powers) and a Democratic state senator (Iannello or Mesi).

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by: robert.harding @ Tue Jul 22, 2008 at 16:39:00 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

I don't think Rivera represents Bad Leadership. (0.00 / 0)

62 scoops up all of Niagara County except Niagara Falls, all of Orleans, and part of the City of Rochester and some Rochester burbs.

So you have both the Buffalo and Rochester media markets to contend with, which is problem 1. Problem 2 is that you need to find a Democrat who will appeal to voters in the City of Rochester as well as City of Lockport and the village of Lyndonville.

Problem 3 is that no County Party organization can claim ownership to the district. 3/5 of the district is in Niagara County, but it includes the far off City of Rochester as well.

Problem 4 is that in Niagara County their major Democratic base lives in SD-60, a bizarrely drawn district that, in clear violation of the law, scoops three Cities (Buffalo, Niagara Falls, and Tonawanda), but not the town connecting them. Their City machine and 138th Assembly seat are both based in Niagara Falls, but its the entire rest of the county that is in SD-62. So where are they to recruit candidates from?

Finally, Problem 5 is, Who the hell would ever want to run against George Maziarz? He's incredibly popular among Dems and Reps alike. His last four races were about 70-30, 70-30, 100-0 with only 30% dropoff, and 75-25. Ouch. You'll never find a top tier candidate til those numbers at least come down to 63-65%

Wait til we take control, then go after him in redistricting. Add Niagara Falls.

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by: Amherst Guy @ Tue Jul 22, 2008 at 18:31:32 PM UTC

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Rivera was bad enough... (0.00 / 0)

That Malcolm Smith didn't attend a recent NC Dems fundraiser. Now I know that wasn't because Rivera was a bad leader. It was because of something he allegedly did, which doesn't speak well for his leadership either.

This district, enrollment wise, is not as challenging as you think it is.

Maziarz's popularity comes from his willingness to get state jobs for Democrats and Republicans alike. He's not a dumb politician. He knows how to play the game.

The problem is that he hasn't faced a serious challenger. Chris Srock? Really? Don Hobel? Grear? Grear is running because of a grudge he has. Hobel is a one-issue candidate.

We haven't seriously recruited for this seat. That is one of the biggest problems here.  

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by: robert.harding @ Tue Jul 22, 2008 at 18:41:16 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Robert (0.00 / 0)

I'm sorry but that's just flat out ignorant. The Rivera/Smith thing was 100% political bullshit. The woman involved even said it was 100% political bullshit, and that she had no problem with Rivera and supports his chairmanship 100%.

That Fucking Rat Steve Pigeon was behind that, and his friend Byron Brown was the one Malcolm Smith called when he happened upon an unexpected protest.

Get a clue, man.  

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by: Amherst Guy @ Tue Jul 22, 2008 at 21:17:20 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Get a clue? (0.00 / 0)

How about get some soap for that mouth? No need to say "BS twice" and then refer to Steve Pigeon as a "f*cking rat." I'm not a big Pigeon fan either, but at least I can keep my dignity.

My point was that a scene was made and it was because of something Rivera did or did not do. There is obviously turmoil in Niagara County or else there wouldn't have been protesters outside of a fundraiser. When things like that happen, something is going on.

And don't tell me to get a clue. I have a pretty good idea of what's going on. We can disagree, but we can also disagree without being idiots.  

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by: robert.harding @ Tue Jul 22, 2008 at 21:41:44 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Nothing is going on (0.00 / 0)

Nothing Steve Pigeon is behind has any real public or political support. He's a disgraced exchair who would be in jail if the Erie County DA wasn't his BFF. That's the whole story.

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by: Amherst Guy @ Wed Jul 23, 2008 at 01:06:24 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Uhh... (0.00 / 0)

Apparently you forgot about a certain billionaire who is ready to give $5 million to mostly Democratic Senate candidates. I have my opinion of Pigeon. But he has been the mouthpiece for Golisano's big money political effort.

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by: robert.harding @ Wed Jul 23, 2008 at 02:21:12 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

You're missing the point. (0.00 / 0)

The point is that the seat is un-recruit-able. He's too rich - he's closing in on $1M Cash on hand - and he's too popular.

Look, his opponents were schmucks. But you look at what they got and what the dropoff of voters was and you do basic math versus general district performance and you see that his support in a competitive race would still be about 55-58%. It's too high. If his victory margin against schmucks was less than 2:1, like Mary Lou Rath's margins in a more Republican district, it might be doable. But 71% is not falling to 49% in one cycle without a scandal, even with a million dollars and John F. Kennedy back from the dead to be your candidate. It's just not.

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by: Amherst Guy @ Tue Jul 22, 2008 at 21:23:21 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

The seat isn't "unrecruitable" (0.00 / 0)

You have to actually recruit and find a candidate before declaring it unrecruitable. I agree - he's got a lot of money. But I don't think he's as popular as you say he is. He definitely has pull in Niagara County. It's more his pull than his popularity. In Orleans County, we haven't been the recipients of too much of Maziarz's giving. As I stated earlier, Maziarz is a smart politician. He's keeping the part of the district that could go blue in his back pocket with state jobs and other deeds.

I also agree that you need to chip away at Maziarz, but the right person with some name recognition and some of their own sway can make waves. Bittner was an example of that. She would have made Maziarz work for it. Would she have won? Probably not. But she would have drawn more attention to the race and made Maziarz earn his victory instead of handing it to him via token candidates.  

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by: robert.harding @ Tue Jul 22, 2008 at 21:46:33 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Agree (0.00 / 0)

The first step is to not be cynical and assume there is no chance of winning.  This situation is similar to all "machine" situatons-- the bosses have a tight grip, but, when it starts to give, things change fast.  They are more intimidating than loved. People don't want to go up against them, but, people have to do that, or they will be ruled by tyrants forever.

The folks who do these brave things are sometimes seen as "sacrificial lambs."  That's not a good way to look at it.  They are pathbreakers, brave scouts.  The ones who go first.  Look for somebody who really wants change, then, support them.

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by: robinia @ Tue Jul 22, 2008 at 22:26:42 PM UTC

[ Parent ]