It's August, Time for a new New York State Senate Cattle Call!

Not a single vote (0.00 / 0)

Not a single vote has been cast in the 61st district, so how about you stop pretending to know anything about the primary from across the state. Joe Mesi, who can barely form a sentence and thinks resolute is a verb, has no credibility with voters. Besides he's been in bed with the scum of western new york, with Pigeon and Parenti. So stop pretending like he's the democratic candidate yet.

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by: BH_Liddel_Hart @ Fri Aug 01, 2008 at 12:53:57 PM UTC

You really need to read what I wrote more carefully, I acknpwledge the (0.00 / 0)

primary and ask that you and every community member list your choices based on who you feel will flip the seats from red to blue.  If Iannello or Ward are your choices simply start your list with Ranzenhofer vs. iannello.  I just think using my constitutioonally protected right to do so that with Mesi already on the WFP line and in the D, IP and C primaries, that if he were also the D candidate he would make this a #6 opportunity.  I think Ward or Iannello deprived of the second line would be a lower yet still probably top ten opportunity.  Please, post your predictions using whatever candidates names you wish to insert as the Democratic challenger for each of your top ten picks!

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by: politics64 @ Sat Aug 02, 2008 at 15:59:32 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Mesi (0.00 / 0)

is in neither the C or I primaries. I don't know where you get your info but he was given the authorization for neither.

Mike Ranzenhofer faces William Walters in the I primary, and Ranzenhofer faces an OTB in the C primary that any candidate - Iannello, Mesi, Ward, or Walters, can use to attempt to beat Ranzenhofer for the line.

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by: Amherst Guy @ Sat Aug 02, 2008 at 17:35:52 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

It is on the NYS BOE Petition received site. (0.00 / 0)

http://www.elections.state.ny.us/

On July 14 Mesi filed for the Democratic, Independence, Conservative and WFP lines.
When you go to the homepage, on the righ side you will see a NEW Petions Filed Link, open it and scroll down to SD61, it does not cut and paste well or I would have.

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by: politics64 @ Sat Aug 02, 2008 at 18:35:02 PM UTC

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That's great (0.00 / 0)

but without authorizations, which the site shows he did not receive, those petitions are DOA.

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by: Amherst Guy @ Sat Aug 02, 2008 at 18:41:02 PM UTC

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You mean he filed petitions without Wilson Pekulas? (0.00 / 0)

Your not serious are you?  There was a post here at TAP that the local Cons. Committee endorsed him and then the IP as well.  Are you sure that Mesi will not appear on the Cons. and IP primary ballot in September?

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by: politics64 @ Sun Aug 03, 2008 at 02:14:12 AM UTC

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That may be Pakula not Pekula but you know what I mean. (0.00 / 0)

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by: politics64 @ Sun Aug 03, 2008 at 02:14:57 AM UTC

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Yes. (0.00 / 0)

The IP refused to issue State Senate Authorizations until after petitions and he did not receive one. The local Conservative party Endorsed Mesi, but Mike Long and the State party refused to issue an authorization, because he's not still a Republican like he used to be.

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by: Amherst Guy @ Sun Aug 03, 2008 at 05:01:08 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Wow,, this news will change the ranking of this race! (0.00 / 0)

Thankyou Amherst Guy for the added information and please post your top ten predictions using the Democratic candidates of your choice.  There are many candidates on the BOE sites who show the same lack of authoriztions like Dollinger's WFP line.  I know none are needed for filers who submit petitions for the party they are registered in but it feels to me like the BOE site has not updated all this as several candidates who I know have WFP endorsement have no authoriztion info listed.

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by: politics64 @ Sun Aug 03, 2008 at 07:36:53 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

My rankings (0.00 / 0)

1) Trunzo v. Foley
2) Robach v. Dollinger
3) Connor v. Squadron (Martin Connor might as well be a Republican, electing Daniel Squadron is the equivalent of electing a true, blue Democrat!)
4) Maltese v. Addabbo/Baldeo
5) Seward v. Barber
6) Padavan v. Gennaro
7) Alesi v. Nachbar
8) Winner v. Tonnello
9) Volker v. Konst
10) Nozzolio v. Capanna

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by: BingChester @ Fri Aug 01, 2008 at 13:31:41 PM UTC

Wow you really feel strongly about Martin Connor! (0.00 / 0)

Do you feel Addabbo/Baldeo is a $4 ranking no matter which of these two are the eventual candidate?

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by: politics64 @ Sat Aug 02, 2008 at 16:02:11 PM UTC

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The problem with Addabbo (0.00 / 0)

is the possibility of Baldeo running as an independent.  That makes me pause about the possibility of that race.

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by: BingChester @ Sat Aug 02, 2008 at 18:21:46 PM UTC

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Um...Politics64... (0.00 / 0)

You do realize that Mesi is going to get crushed in the primary, right?

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by: Amherst Guy @ Fri Aug 01, 2008 at 13:42:30 PM UTC

Mine (0.00 / 0)

1)Iannello over Ranzenhofer (Rath)
2)Foley over Trunzo
3)Addabbo over Maltese
4)Dollinger over Robach

(Huge gap)

5)Premo/Russo/Yepsen over Seney/McDonald (Bruno)

(Huge-er gap)

6)Seward v. Barber
7)Alesi v. Nachbar

(Billy Fuccillo sized gap, like not gonna happen)

8)Nozzolio v. Capanna
9)Padavan v. Gennaro
10)Winner v. Tonnello  

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by: Amherst Guy @ Fri Aug 01, 2008 at 13:56:05 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Mine! (0.00 / 0)

I kind of like robinia's comment below, especially the MVP deal.  But, making lists are fun.

The Senate District I believe we should all be concentrating on is "mine", meaning only the District one lives in personally.  But that doesn't the rest of the state isn't worth donating to or canvassing in.

OK, fine!  I'll do a list...a small list!...of my own district and a couple surrounding districts.

1.  SD-46:  Weiss (D) vs. Voelker (D-C) vs. Breslin (D-incumbent) - My fav: Weiss

2.  SD-51:  Barber (D) vs. Seward (R-incumbent) - My fav:  Barber

3.  SD-43:  Premo/Russo/Yepsen (D's) vs. Who?/Bruno Burger (Are's) - My fav: Russo

Note:  David Weiss is the strongest progressive State Senate candidate that nobody's heard of yet...check him out!

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by: Soundpolitic @ Fri Aug 01, 2008 at 15:11:39 PM UTC

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They are fun, Soundpolitic! That is why I post it! and I want to kow how you see things (0.00 / 0)

Can you list numbers four to ten to make my calculations easier?

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by: politics64 @ Sat Aug 02, 2008 at 16:24:15 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

I think it very possible that Iannello can win the primary. (0.00 / 0)

Please read my above response to BH_Liddel_Hart above. I am happy you did exactly as I suggested BH to do.  Please, my listing of Mesi is not an endorsement of him, just my take of the additional party lines and the potential of four lines on the ballot.  Iannello is a strong candidate and very legitimate and woulf not surprise me if she were to win the Democratic primary.  Is her brother-in-law lifely to split her vote?

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by: politics64 @ Sat Aug 02, 2008 at 16:09:07 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Not playing (4.00 / 1)

I like Robert's power rankings, as they are a good indicator of how much "buzz" the media has about which race-- but I don't take them too seriously, either.  

And, I guess I just can't get too interested in the discussion about which race is our best chance at a State Senate flip.  Guess I am just a Dean-type strategist: I think we ought to be running as hard as we can everywhere, take as much turf as we possibly can.  It's like sports, I think-- arguing over Most Valuable Player during the playing season just makes you lose focus.  And confidence.  Support these candidates challenging incumbents, don't run them against one another across districts.

Just my little thought.

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by: robinia @ Fri Aug 01, 2008 at 14:57:15 PM UTC

Well said. (0.00 / 0)

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by: Jrathman @ Fri Aug 01, 2008 at 15:01:42 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

My power rankings (4.00 / 1)

Are just what robinia called them - "a good indicator of how much "buzz" the media has about which race..." I actually came up with this idea from different sports websites that do a power rankings chart for the NFL, NBA, MLB, etc. If you have ever looked at power rankings for a sports league, they usually involve a type of "who's hot" and "who's not" analysis. For example, if you are on a winning streak, you get a nice bump up the chart.

That is my thought process with the power rankings I do on a weekly basis. They aren't meant to list the most competitive races in order, but rather to list the big races that are competitive based on how much attention the races are getting, among other factors like getting into the top ten on ActBlue, for example.  

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by: robert.harding @ Fri Aug 01, 2008 at 15:21:52 PM UTC

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Well actually, a community is built on affording all of us political junkies (0.00 / 0)

an opportunity to play and these lists as they are also done at Swing State Project and Senate Guru recognizes each and every one of us as thinking experts on elections and an opportunity to share insights.  Sorry if you do not wish to play.  As far as the power rankings representing the media buzz, I am not so sure of the accuracy of that.  Each poster here brings their own media buzz to the listings, again, that builds community, instead of passively sitting back and allowing others to write and think for us.  It is best to use the power rankings and other blog posts as references as I have in my predictions rather than letting it be the only word from the TAP community at large!

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by: politics64 @ Sat Aug 02, 2008 at 16:16:40 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

From Michele Ianello's website...... (0.00 / 0)

Organizations

   * Genesee Democratic County Committee
   * Clarence Democratic Town Committee
   * City of Tonawanda Democratic Committee
   * Town of Le Roy Democratic Committee
   * New Democrats of Western New York

Unions

   * Buffalo Building Trades Council
   * Communications Workers of America Local 1139
   * Brotherhood of Locomotive Engineers and Trainmen Local 421

(www.micheleiannello.com/endorsements)

I wouldn't call the primary until September 9th.  Michele, with these groups supporting her, has serious boots on the ground.

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by: daniel.jones @ Sat Aug 02, 2008 at 03:39:27 AM UTC

daniel jones, please read my responses to BH and Amhurst. (0.00 / 0)

Please feel free to post your top ten predictions and by all means starting off with Ranzenhofer Vs Ianello.  With your collective positions the Cattle Call may well show Ranzenhoffer vs Ianello a number one pickuor flip opportunity this time! But remember, please try to come up with ten!

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by: politics64 @ Sat Aug 02, 2008 at 16:21:43 PM UTC

[ Parent ]