NY-20: A Challenger For Gillibrand?

we know the GOP (0.00 / 0)

is going to target this race. this is a seat they think they can take back. is this the guy that could do it?

TODAY is day one. It always is.

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by: phillip anderson @ Tue Feb 13, 2007 at 22:11:54 PM UTC

Ari Fleischer (4.00 / 1)

Please please please god please let it happen.

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by: Michael Bouldin @ Tue Feb 13, 2007 at 22:14:11 PM UTC

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Disregard that (0.00 / 0)

Silly me, he was looking at NY-19, not NY-20.

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by: Michael Bouldin @ Tue Feb 13, 2007 at 22:14:53 PM UTC

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fleischer punked out on NY-19 (0.00 / 0)

i'm still pissed at santa about that one.

TODAY is day one. It always is.

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by: phillip anderson @ Tue Feb 13, 2007 at 22:18:08 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Gillibrand isn't as vulnerable as the GOP thinks (4.00 / 2)

I was on the ground for Gillibrand's race and I can you the campaign did not do her justice.  Sweeney basically dictated the tone of the campaign, one of the most negative of the cycle, from the start.  His campaign was basically carpetbagger lies, war profiteer lies, and refusing to debate.  This forced Gillibrand to go negative too.  As a result a lot of voters didn't really get to here about all of the great things she supports.  I think that race was so close because  Gillibrand was able to ride the Dem wave and a late breaking Sweeney wife-beater story to victory.  Voters knew little about Gillibrand's stances on the issues.  This cycle she is much more aggressive with her positive stances.  She kept her pledge to maintain a public schedule, the only other lawmaker to do that is Tester, and she got her name on a prominent ethic's bill.  She is also already campaigning for re-election, I got a fundraising e-mail the other day.  She is no push over.

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by: sabachi @ Tue Feb 13, 2007 at 22:40:33 PM UTC

i certainly don't believe her to be a pushover (4.00 / 1)

either. the GOP is definitely going to come after her, however. john hall, too.

i think that the establishment is firmly invested in gillibrand though. you saw that in the campaign and you can see it in the way pelosi is treating her. i think the national dems are doing everything they can to shore her up and, let's face it, she's doing a hell of a job of defining herself.

i think kirsten will be fine. i'm more curious to see how the GOoPs are gonna play it.

TODAY is day one. It always is.

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by: phillip anderson @ Tue Feb 13, 2007 at 22:48:24 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

My Guess Is She'll Be Okay (0.00 / 0)

This is not an easy seat for the Dems to hold but my guess is she'll be okay.  The Rs are going to dump a lot of money in this race to try to win it back so it is going to be a fight. 

Hall has a rough road as well but that seat is less Repub than NY-20.  Plus, the Westchester and Dutchess parts are becoming more Dem. 

Ari once worked for Joe DioGuardi (one of the dumbest people to ever serve in Congress) who used to represents parts of NY-19 before he lost in 1988 to Nita Lowey.  I'd say Ari is pretty damaged after the Scooter Libby stuff so I don't take his candidacy seriously.  Look for a local State Senator or Assemblyman to challenge Hall.

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by: JMNYC @ Tue Feb 13, 2007 at 23:12:30 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Times Union blog (0.00 / 0)

Capitol Confidential had an item on this today, and it said that Sweeney is having meetings with the goal of running again. And Treadwell and Sweeney aren't the only Republicans eying the seat.

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by: Historical Pessimist @ Tue Feb 13, 2007 at 22:59:23 PM UTC

I would love to see a rematch in 2008 (4.00 / 1)

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by: sabachi @ Tue Feb 13, 2007 at 23:06:14 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Me Too n/t (0.00 / 0)

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by: Scott in NJ @ Wed Feb 14, 2007 at 04:36:29 AM UTC

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I would hate a rematch (0.00 / 0)

even though I think she could win again rather easily, Sweeney would bring so much slime to the table that I really would rather have at least a mildly civil campaign.

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by: Jrathman @ Wed Feb 14, 2007 at 15:51:23 PM UTC

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poststar.com article on Sweeney (0.00 / 0)

link

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by: jonah in nyc @ Wed Feb 14, 2007 at 16:32:35 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

I had the honor of campaigning with Rep. Gillibrand... (4.00 / 1)

...this summer and I have to say she is tenacious. Anyone who thinks she is going to be easy to beat is mistaken, I feel.

Plus that, she's doing all the right things...town meetings...shaking hands in parking lots...opening up her schedule...listening.

She is very smart and very dedicated. I welcome another battle from Sweeney or Treadwell or whoever.

She will win, because she will be a great member of Congress.

We've got some work ahead of us.

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by: NYBri @ Tue Feb 13, 2007 at 23:11:55 PM UTC

There are a number of names (4.00 / 3)

being floated about.

Treadwell seems most likely as he had expressed interest prior to the '06 race. Sweeney was once rumored to be interested in running for Gov. Treadwell was rumored to be waiting to run as his replacement. Then Treadwell was rumored to be thinking of running a primary against Sweeney. Treadwell was Pataki's man and Sweeney and Pataki had a serious falling out. Then when Sweeney got sick it was clear Treadwell was waiting in the wings to replace him if he bowed out.

I am told Treadwell is independently wealthy in the multi-million dollar territory.

Also rumored (today) is a Sweeney rematch (please santa!).

Faso had his name thrown out there.

I have heard from 2 sources the Saratoga County D.A. Jim Murphy is a possibility.

Then there is Assemblyman Roy McDonald who was brushed aside to make way for Sweeney back in '98. There are still some ruffled feathers in the Republican Party faithful over that.

And who knows who Bruno will want to have run. Pataki doesn't have a say anymore and it remains to be seen if Sweeney retains any pull. The resident power boss remains Bruno.

Oh yes, and the 2 State Senators... Little and Sayward... have been rumored in the past as well.

In any event, Gillibrand will toast whoever the republicans throw up there. I wouldn't be at all surprised to see a contested Republican primary and even more disarray in the New York State not-so-grand-and-very-old-and-tired-party.

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by: Andrew C. White @ Wed Feb 14, 2007 at 01:29:22 AM UTC

At this point... (0.00 / 0)

Treadwell's got to be the GOP frontrunner, but I'm sure there are going to be others interested in the race.  I wouldn't be surprised to see a primary of 3 or more, which would leave the eventual candidate worn down and depleted of funds.  It's still going to require a helluva lot of hard work to get her reelected, just based on the demographics of the district, but we did it last time, we can do it again.

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by: Jrathman @ Wed Feb 14, 2007 at 15:54:25 PM UTC