New York State Senate Notable Races: 9/1/08

So, we hold our two newbies, (4.00 / 1)

pick up a couple three of these (3, 15, 55, 56, 61), and have a Democratic Senate next year.

That's great news, especially on Labor Day.

Excellent work, again, Robert.  

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by: devtob @ Mon Sep 01, 2008 at 16:41:39 PM UTC

Here's how I see it... (4.00 / 1)

SD-3 is ours. It is like Trunzo has fallen off the face of the Earth. I don't see how he can win this without showing his face. He is way past his prime and it is time for someone new. That person is Brian Foley.

I also think SD-56 is ours. Robach has made some serious errors over the last several months and Dollinger is far too intelligent and far too savvy for Robach to handle.

SD-15 will be hard fought, but we can pull it out. Serf Maltese is in the crosshairs. It's time to get that seat.

SD-55 will be close. Real close. Nachbar has all the tools to win this seat. Alesi is a somewhat solid incumbent, but not solid enough. When you give people a better option, they will take the better option. Nachbar is that guy.

SD-61 is tricky. We know who the Republican is and have known for some time. But the Democratic primary has left things up in the air. I believe any of the three Democratic candidates can win this. We have to make it through first.  

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by: robert.harding @ Mon Sep 01, 2008 at 17:33:19 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Notable Races (0.00 / 0)

How'd you decide which races were "notable"?

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by: bluefalcon @ Mon Sep 01, 2008 at 17:20:42 PM UTC

I know that I left off a few... (0.00 / 0)

But notable just means the ones that are the most talked about. The Republicans are on their heels in many of these. It seems the Republicans will be targeting the Democrats in SD-7 and SD-48, along with SD-37. That's fine, but I don't see the GOP winning any of those seats. I think they are just digging for something to win back considering they are on pace to lose a few seats this November.  

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by: robert.harding @ Mon Sep 01, 2008 at 17:37:06 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

SD-11 (0.00 / 0)

Robert,

I am wondering what details you dug up that suggest that this race leans toward Padavan. I'm not super familiar with the political scene of this part of Jamaica in Queens, but on the surface doesn't it seem like a youngish, popular progressive city councilman would make short work of an aging republican holdover in a district where Dems have something like a 2-1 registration advantage? Especially in a Dem landslide year in NY with presidential turnout across the board and likely record turnout for Dems in communities of color?

Like I said, I don't know the local politics scene in this part of NYC that well, but from everything I've read Sen. Padavan is a holdover from a previous era of politics in Queens, and that Obama's massive margin of victory in NYC will make it almost impossible for him to find enough ticket splitters to win.

From the registration data I've seen on SD-11, if it were ranked as a congressional seat it would be something like D+20. What makes you think that Padavan can hold a seat like that against a strong D challenge in a year like this?

You're rankings are terrific and I really enjoy them, I am just wondering what info you have on this race that I don't. Thanks!

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by: soko @ Mon Sep 01, 2008 at 17:40:55 PM UTC

Re: SD-11 (0.00 / 0)

As someone who is somewhat familar with SD-11, Frank Padavan is extremely popular among people in the district. There are many Democrats in SD-11 who always vote for Padavan. While campaigning for the race, I've had loyal Democrats tell me that they always vote Democratic with the exception of Padavan. Padavan has a reputation for delivering constituent services such as street lights, stop signs, etc to make up for his horrible Senate record. For this reason, while Gennaro is the biggest challenge ever put up against Padavan, the race will not be easy and it will take a lot to take out Padavan

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by: stevenman5000 @ Mon Sep 01, 2008 at 18:37:28 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Well... (4.00 / 1)

I've had loyal Democrats tell me that they always vote Democratic with the exception of Padavan. Padavan has a reputation for delivering constituent services such as street lights, stop signs, etc to make up for his horrible Senate record.

It's going to be a rude awakening for those folks when they wake up on November 5 and find that the member item dollars have dried up...and thus the reason to put up with his horrible Senate record.

If I were running this cycle against a Republican Lifer, I'd be hitting them over the head with this...they, after all, have been hitting challengers over the head with their ability to deliver member item dollars for decades. "I know I'm horrible, but I just got some money for the new roof on the library. Vote for me."

I'd be asking them what their plans are for the district when the 2009 Member item cash cow has dried up?

Damn, I ran one cycle too early.

We've got some work ahead of us.

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by: NYBri @ Mon Sep 01, 2008 at 20:41:46 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Not quite. (0.00 / 0)

Absent any countervailing data, I'd rank McElroy presently as leans R, Craig Johnson as leans D, Gennaro as leans D, Tonnello as leans R, and Dollinger as a toss-up. A lot of these races are much closer than people think they are, and there are no safe republican seats left in this state.  

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by: Michael Bouldin @ Mon Sep 01, 2008 at 18:04:29 PM UTC

NY 59th (0.00 / 0)

Robert, Wouldn't you consider the 59th a notable race between Dale Volker and Kathy Konst. Now that Golisano is financing KK, it could be an interesting race. Your thoughts?...Pete

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by: pherr @ Mon Sep 01, 2008 at 22:51:28 PM UTC

I agree... (0.00 / 0)

With Golisano money this could be a pretty big hole to tear open in an unlikely district, Volker is also facing a vigorous primary, any thoughts?

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by: daniel.jones @ Tue Sep 02, 2008 at 00:12:24 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

I thought (0.00 / 0)

KK was also in a primary?  Volker is like Padavan and Trunzo served there district well and brought home the $$$.  I think SD 7, 37 and 48 will be closer than you think.  The Dems best bet is SD 15 the GOP's is SD 48.  Its a Republican District and Aurbertine has what 7 months in office not 36 years.  In visiting parts of the North Country Obama is not a big hit up there, could help in this race.  SD 55 Alesi has averaged what 68% in his last few elections.  I would think SD 41 would be more competitive than SD 54.

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by: noel951 @ Tue Sep 02, 2008 at 00:35:30 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

SD-59 (0.00 / 0)

SD-59 is a seat we need to know and hear more about. To be honest, I have not heard anything about Kathy Konst aside from the Golisano news. There is no doubt in my mind that the Golisano money will make this race an intriguing. How intriguing of a race it is though is up to Konst.

I know that David DiPietro is putting up quite a challenge to Volker though. He might not be successful, but he's not going down without a fight. Hopefully that can weaken Volker for us, but we'll see where that race stands after Sept. 9. That could definitely be a sleeper.  

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by: robert.harding @ Tue Sep 02, 2008 at 02:08:57 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

59 is not winnable (0.00 / 0)

Although if anyone could win it, its a borderline Republican like Kathy Konst. (I'm not just calling her that; she was the deciding vote in allowing the Republican's preferred candidate to Chair our Democratic Controlled Legislature instead of a good Democrat.) Also being a woman is huge for her.

But it's in Buffalo, Rochester, and Elmira media markets.

That's too expensive.

And efficient door to door is impossible outside of a few towns and villages.

Not gonna happen.

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by: Amherst Guy @ Tue Sep 02, 2008 at 04:14:34 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

59 is winnable for Dems, but not gonna be easy (0.00 / 0)

Earned media is free no matter how many markets there are or how big they are. The 59th district was clearly designed with incumbent protection in mind, but no one's invincible.

If Konst does well with earned media and Golisano makes a decent-sized investment in ads, she's got a shot. I haven't seen any evidence of Golisano's $$ yet, but she's in the news fairly often, and usually for positive things. The only times Volker's been in the news lately were when he got bashed for sending out political mailers at taxpayer expense and when his DiPietro, accused his people of an intimidation campaign. I can't resist sharing a scandal: http://www.eastaurora.org/arti...
I heard rumors that he was doing a press conference in response to the Rt 219 issues the day after Konst did one. But if he did, the media didn't show up.

True, she's screwed in the rural areas, and the district does have about 16,000 more R's than D's. But Konst has uncommon cross-party appeal and a lot of people in Erie county who love her.

I think the primaries will be a good indicator of how this race is likely to turn out.If Pawarski breaks 20% in the Dem. Primary, then either Konst is too weak or the Erie Democratic party too fragmented to win, barring massive spending from Golisano. And he's not going to spend money on a race that's unwinnable, so that's out.

If DiPietro gets above 40%, Volker's done.
 

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by: bluefalcon @ Tue Sep 02, 2008 at 17:51:55 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

If she is screwed in the rural areas (0.00 / 0)

She is screwed overall. I have yet to see evidence either way. I haven't seen Konst demonstrate she can win over people in the rural parts of the district and I have yet to hear that she is a complete failure who won't beat Volker. There are a lot of questions with that race which is why I'm not jumping on it and calling it a "notable" race.

There are four counties in this district, including Erie. Erie's enrollment is close (42,367 Democrats to 45,413 Republicans with 25,124 Blanks) but with the rural counties, Konst will have to show that she can win over them. The rural counties have a different set of concerns than where Konst hails from so she will have to be willing to engage and talk to them. That remains to be seen.

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by: robert.harding @ Tue Sep 02, 2008 at 18:26:38 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

SD-46 (0.00 / 0)

I'm just getting in from a day on the ground with David Weiss who is challenging incumbent Senator Neil Breslin.  It's the race that could very well surprise everybody.  The campaign is being waged entirely door-to-door and we are finding that the Senators support is paper-thin.

It's interesting because the district is Albany County itself.  Senator Neil's one brother is the County Executive and his other brother is the County Judge.  I can see why it wouldn't be included on the chart because conventional wisdom has shown that anybody who challenges the Breslins gets beaten down by their machine...

But if you visit David Weiss's website, you'll find he's a very unconventional candidate.  I'm not about to call the race, but the district is solidly Democratic, and whosoever wins the primary will win the general.  And if David Weiss is able to pull this off, it will mean that grassroots campaigning can take down any power structure, anywhere, nation-wide, despite the fact that the media completely shuns the candidate and that no special interest money of party machine support is involved.  Now that would be good for democracy.

Stay tuned for the Soundpolitic interview with David Weiss and perhaps an "on the ground" diary...and prepare to possibly be surprised :-)

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by: Soundpolitic @ Tue Sep 02, 2008 at 01:03:19 AM UTC

You rock, Robert (0.00 / 0)

These Senate recaps are always the highlight of my blogging week.  

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by: Roatti @ Tue Sep 02, 2008 at 04:39:22 AM UTC

Omission (0.00 / 0)

You failed to mention the SD-21 race, which is a very competitive race.  

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by: Klugstah @ Tue Sep 02, 2008 at 05:27:31 AM UTC

I didn't mention it for a reason... (0.00 / 0)

You will see that reason tomorrow...

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by: robert.harding @ Tue Sep 02, 2008 at 18:28:03 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Fair Enough (0.00 / 0)

I'm involved with this race so I felt the need to mention its omission.  I'm eager to see your reason tomorrow!

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by: Klugstah @ Wed Sep 03, 2008 at 03:12:12 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

KK might have hurt herself (0.00 / 0)

with the whole I'll run for Congress, no wait, I'll run for State Senate.

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by: pherr @ Tue Sep 02, 2008 at 22:14:43 PM UTC

Might have? (0.00 / 0)

Definitely hurt herself there. But a lot of people aren't paying attention in July, and it's not the kind of thing that's bad enough to be a scandal. My money says Volker erased the damage with his franking.  

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by: bluefalcon @ Tue Sep 02, 2008 at 22:47:06 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Maziarz (0.00 / 0)

Rob, i noticed you posted a quite harsh article regarding senator maziarz. questioning his environmental record and all. but then you dont put his election up on this little chart? why is that? is it because you believe his opponent does not have a chance?

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by: action harding @ Wed Sep 03, 2008 at 03:57:28 AM UTC

Re: Maziarz (0.00 / 0)

I don't believe that SD-62 is winnable in this go-around. That said, I don't like Maziarz. In due time he will get what a number of Republican incumbents will be getting in November.

I believe Brian Grear will do better than the token candidates of the past. I think that because Grear is actually running a race. He isn't just running for the sake of getting his name out there. He's taking Maziarz to task for different reasons and that's a good thing.  

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by: robert.harding @ Wed Sep 03, 2008 at 04:04:35 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Maziarz (0.00 / 0)

So you are supporting a man who wanted to run for sherriff but couldnt, so he decides to run for senator instead. Rob, don't you think that you should be somewhat qualified to run for the NYS Senate?  

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by: action harding @ Thu Sep 04, 2008 at 14:21:53 PM UTC

[ Parent ]