| A week from today marks a huge day in New York State politics and a huge day for a couple of congressional races around the state.
At the state level, there are a number of important primaries:
AD-64: Assembly Speaker Sheldon Silver faces off against two Democrats: Luke Henry and Paul Newell. It will be interesting to see how well Henry and Newell do. Silver is not going to be easy and the fact that there are two challengers might hurt both Henry and Newell in this race.
AD-102: The Democrats have another primary in a seat that could be competitive in November that might just add one more seat to the Democratic-dominated Assembly. Gary Levine and Jonathan Smith will face-off in the Democratic primary that looks to be very close right now.
AD-144: This is another interesting Democratic primary. Assemblyman Sam Hoyt is being challenged by Barbra Kavanaugh, a former ally of Hoyt's and the Golisano-backed candidate in this race. Hoyt will have to overcome a scandal to win this race and overcome his opponent who is being backed by one of Hoyt's political rivals, Steve Pigeon.
SD-21: This Democratic primary is an interesting one. Sen. Kevin Parker will face Simcha Felder and Kendall Stewart - two New York City councilmen whose terms run out next year. This will no doubt be a fight for Parker. Felder and Stewart present strong challenges to Parker. Like AD-64 though, both challengers could cancel each other. This is definitely a primary to watch.
SD-25: Sen. Martin Connor is in trouble against fellow Democrat Daniel Squadron. Squadron is going to be a tough opponent for Connor to handle. If Connor can pull this out, it would be a great victory for him. Squadron might have his number here though.
SD-43: Brian Premo has been in this race from the get-go, which is a good trait to have. After all, he was going to take on the man who was, at the time, the most powerful Republican in New York (Joe Bruno). But after Bruno retired, Mike Russo - a former staffer for Rep. Kirsten Gillibrand - entered the race and will be challenging Premo in the primary.
SD-46: Charlie Voelker and David Weiss are taking on Democratic incumbent Sen. Neil Breslin. Soundpolitic has a great write-up on this race that he authored a few weeks ago. This race is closer than it looks. Breslin will probably pull it out but he will need to fight to do so.
SD-61: This is one of the big Democratic primaries to watch because this seat could be a pickup for Democrats in November. Michele Iannello, Joe Mesi and Dan Ward are running in a three-way primary for the right to face Republican Mike Ranzenhofer in November. Right now it looks like a battle between Iannello and Mesi, both of whom have received support district-wide. Ward is a better general election candidate than primary candidate. That is one reason why he won't succeed in this race.
NY-13: Mike McMahon is the clear front-runner in this Democratic primary. Steve Harrison will have to pull off a big upset to overcome the DCCC-backed candidate in NY-13. McMahon will have smooth sailing through the primary and November.
NY-21: This is arguably the most intriguing primary contest statewide because of the cast of characters. Five Democrats are seeking this seat, with the top four being Tracey Brooks, Darius Shahinfar, Phil Steck and Paul Tonko. Brooks and Steck appear to be at the top, but you can't rule out Tonko coming from behind. Tonko is a familiar face and won't be a pushover.
NY-26: Jon Powers is the endorsed candidate in this race but he must get by Republicrat Jack Davis and fellow Democrat Alice Kryzan. Kryzan has been very quiet during this race while Davis has been spending a lot of money and has had his minions trying to back Powers against the wall forcing him to defend allegation after allegation. It will be tough, but Powers should come out on top. |