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Open Thread - Key Primary Edition

by: robert.harding

Tue Sep 02, 2008 at 15:12:17 PM EDT


A week from today marks a huge day in New York State politics and a huge day for a couple of congressional races around the state.

At the state level, there are a number of important primaries:

AD-64: Assembly Speaker Sheldon Silver faces off against two Democrats: Luke Henry and Paul Newell. It will be interesting to see how well Henry and Newell do. Silver is not going to be easy and the fact that there are two challengers might hurt both Henry and Newell in this race.

AD-102: The Democrats have another primary in a seat that could be competitive in November that might just add one more seat to the Democratic-dominated Assembly. Gary Levine and Jonathan Smith will face-off in the Democratic primary that looks to be very close right now.

AD-144: This is another interesting Democratic primary. Assemblyman Sam Hoyt is being challenged by Barbra Kavanaugh, a former ally of Hoyt's and the Golisano-backed candidate in this race. Hoyt will have to overcome a scandal to win this race and overcome his opponent who is being backed by one of Hoyt's political rivals, Steve Pigeon.

SD-21: This Democratic primary is an interesting one. Sen. Kevin Parker will face Simcha Felder and Kendall Stewart - two New York City councilmen whose terms run out next year. This will no doubt be a fight for Parker. Felder and Stewart present strong challenges to Parker. Like AD-64 though, both challengers could cancel each other. This is definitely a primary to watch.

SD-25: Sen. Martin Connor is in trouble against fellow Democrat Daniel Squadron. Squadron is going to be a tough opponent for Connor to handle. If Connor can pull this out, it would be a great victory for him. Squadron might have his number here though.

SD-43: Brian Premo has been in this race from the get-go, which is a good trait to have. After all, he was going to take on the man who was, at the time, the most powerful Republican in New York (Joe Bruno). But after Bruno retired, Mike Russo - a former staffer for Rep. Kirsten Gillibrand - entered the race and will be challenging Premo in the primary.

SD-46: Charlie Voelker and David Weiss are taking on Democratic incumbent Sen. Neil Breslin. Soundpolitic has a great write-up on this race that he authored a few weeks ago. This race is closer than it looks. Breslin will probably pull it out but he will need to fight to do so.

SD-61: This is one of the big Democratic primaries to watch because this seat could be a pickup for Democrats in November. Michele Iannello, Joe Mesi and Dan Ward are running in a three-way primary for the right to face Republican Mike Ranzenhofer in November. Right now it looks like a battle between Iannello and Mesi, both of whom have received support district-wide. Ward is a better general election candidate than primary candidate. That is one reason why he won't succeed in this race.

NY-13: Mike McMahon is the clear front-runner in this Democratic primary. Steve Harrison will have to pull off a big upset to overcome the DCCC-backed candidate in NY-13. McMahon will have smooth sailing through the primary and November.

NY-21: This is arguably the most intriguing primary contest statewide because of the cast of characters. Five Democrats are seeking this seat, with the top four being Tracey Brooks, Darius Shahinfar, Phil Steck and Paul Tonko. Brooks and Steck appear to be at the top, but you can't rule out Tonko coming from behind. Tonko is a familiar face and won't be a pushover.

NY-26: Jon Powers is the endorsed candidate in this race but he must get by Republicrat Jack Davis and fellow Democrat Alice Kryzan. Kryzan has been very quiet during this race while Davis has been spending a lot of money and has had his minions trying to back Powers against the wall forcing him to defend allegation after allegation. It will be tough, but Powers should come out on top.  

robert.harding :: Open Thread - Key Primary Edition
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NY-21 & SD-46 (0.00 / 0)
I'm back from another day of canvassing out with David Weiss who has actually just locked up about half of the Democratic ward leaders in the City of Albany.  

The day got off to a rocky start when we discovered that nearly all of David's signs on major roads had not only been ripped up, but slathered in nasty black grease, probably used car oil, making the signs totally unusable as well as seeping into God's green earth below.  No idea whether it's Breslin goons trying to keep their man in power or Voelker's pit bulls trying to make up for not going door-to-door.

And you thought the sign-stealing stuff in NY-21 was ugly!  Speaking of that race, I'm officially placing it in my "too close to call" column, but because of these two races, a lot of people are looking at Albany County to see what the future of politics will be:

Will these two races prove that the existing power structures can stay intact with just advertisements and stuffed mailboxes?  Or will the grass roots show their true power?  Four hundred years after its founding, Albany County sure is one hell of place to be living politically in 2008!

P.S.: Breslin & Voelker:  Your goons pull this kind of crap and you have the gall to ask me to be my State Senator?  You just doubled my motivation :-)


Don't point fingers at Charlie: (0.00 / 0)
From my experience with him, he is a great guy, and wouldn't stoop to that level. By my estimation - he is in it for the same reasons as David, because Neil has got to go. (Though they really should have communicated better, because two-on-one in this race is not going to cut it).

[ Parent ]
Really... (0.00 / 0)
Then why did all the signs I placed on routes toward the Altamont Fairgrounds suddenly turn into Charlie Voelker signs a couple weeks ago?

I really don't want to get into a flame war based on signs, but I will say one thing:  these dirty tricks have got to stop.  I'm really, really sick of them.

As for Charlie's reasons for running, yes, Neil has got to go, and he's got heart for getting himself on the ballot.  But a comparison of the challengers' websites reveals that Charlie is, in my opinion, completely unqualified to be a State Senator.  David Weiss?  He would have given the NY-21 Congressional candidates a run for their money.

I honestly believe that Charlie's candidacy is based on ego and the only role he could possibly play as a candidate is a spoiler.  

David's candidacy is based on his 35 years of experience as an expert in renewable energy (having worked with both former President Jimmy Carter and the late Senator Paul Wellstone) and as a grass roots activist (having co-founded Greenpeace and organized the single largest women's rights rally that packed Madison Square Garden) and I believe he's the candidate that the people of Albany County deserve in the State Senate.


[ Parent ]
I haven't taken an active role in the campaign: (4.00 / 1)
But I can say that it really doesn't seem like the work of Charlie's outfit to me. I have sat down with him on a few occasions and I really find him to be a genuine person who is not interested in participating in that culture of 'same-ol, same-ol' - but if you're working the race you may know more than I...

Some good friends of mine are supporting David, and I wish him the best.

I just think it sounds more like the politics of the status quo to be tearing down signs...


[ Parent ]
NY-21: Where's the beef? (0.00 / 0)
Overall, a great depiction of some of the more exciting races around the State.

I'm particularly concerned about Sam Hoyt's race - because I think he's a great legislator (though he has a strong community presence, so maybe I shouldn't worry too much).

But, then we come to the Primary in NY-21 - I have to question your basis for coming to your current estimation of the race.

After personally knocking on hundreds of doors, overseeing thousands of calls,taking notice of the number / frequency / location of signs located on private residences, and attending a number of public events and debates - I would be hard pressed to place Tracey even in the top three these days.

Is there polling data that you are privy to that we haven't seen yet? It seems to me that Paul is still dominating this race, in part thanks to his outstanding and recognized service - and the simple fact he's been on the ballot and elected to office 12 times in a district that covers half the Congressional District.

For you to claim that he is somehow 'coming from behind' doesn't seem quite accurate - at least not to those of us with our ear to the ground.


contact some more people (0.00 / 0)
In case you missed it PineHills, the Schenectady Gazette included this in their article about the 21st cd race a couple of days ago. I want to point out that the Schenectady Gazette is Tonko's hometown newspaper, so this is definitely worth noting.

"Indeed, Democratic insiders said the race is neck and neck between Tonko and Brooks, based on polling numbers they have seen. They said the race is so close that it falls within the slim margin of error.

This is quite a change from an earlier poll that had Tonko ahead of his nearest competitor by more than 30 points."

From this, it would seem that you are dead wrong about Tracey not being in the top three. In fact, it would seem to be the exact opposite. I know that you're a Tonko supporter, which is fine, but it's rather telling that Tonko's home newspaper is calling the race between the two very close, rather than what you're claiming. Furthermore, in general it's interesting that Steck isn't even mentioned in this, possibly implying that he wasn't even close in the numbers. I'm not saying this is certain, but it's at least something to think about.

The link to the article is here:
http://www.dailygazette.com/ne...


[ Parent ]
Did you just quote 'Democratic Insiders'? (0.00 / 0)
That is really about as telling as the fact that the Schenectady Gazette printed the rantings of some partisan no-nothing in the first place...

Question your sources, or in this case, the sources of your sources. (Whose sources still don't have named sources)

If you did this sort of investigative stuff, instead of just shilling for Tracey, then you would come to correctly place Paul's hometown in Amsterdam (not Schenectady).

My ear is to the ground, yours is to the paper - I will trust my opinion thanks.


[ Parent ]
Total Miss of the hottest AD Primary of all, The 6th AD Race on LI (0.00 / 0)
Features incumbent Phil Ramos and challenger Waldo Cabrera.  Waldo is supported by CE Steve Levy as part of the blood feud with Ramos who opposed Levy's anti loitering bill that targeted Day Workers.  Ramos attempted to get even by proposing not to renew Suffolk County's ability to collect a sales tax.  Over 75% of Levy's County Budget is funded by the Counties 4.5% share of the sales tax.  Levy was outraged and now we have a primary.  The district is one party D so whoever emerges the winner will win in November.  Cabrera took the C cross endorsement and Ramos has the WFP.  The Reps are not running anyone.  Not sure what if anything the IP is doing.  Cabrera is heavily supported by the local Brentwood Hispanic Democratic Club who have long had issues with Ramos and Ramos has been called on the carpet by many including neighboring AD Ginny Fields for his poor constituency service operations.  Supposedly constituent calls are rarely returned.  I have no horse here but I will be watching the returns with interest!

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