| On the eve of the most important race in New York this year, here are some final thoughts.
Assemblymembers Rory Lancman, Cathy Nolan and Audrey Pheffer really like the Albany status quo and are just asking for progressive primary challengers in 2010.
Turns out the creator of the Doctors for Congestion Pricing blog seems to know a little about public health:
This blog was started by Peter Muennig, an Assistant Professor in Health Policy and Management at Columbia University.
Dan Jacoby muses about what would happen if Silver actually lost:
Suppose, just for the fun of it, that lightning strikes, the earth shakes, and Silver loses. The immediate result would be a mad scramble for leadership in the Assembly, and the only guarantee is that nobody knows who would win. Well, almost the only guarantee -- for whoever wins will have to promise to push forward exactly those reforms that Silver's supporters are talking about.
The difference is that Silver isn't really the most progressive Speaker we could have, nor would he necessarily get things done. If Silver were more interested in getting things done than blaming others, rebuilding lower Manhattan (his district!) would have progressed much faster. Yes, he'll go along with the caucus (many call it "leading from behind"), but he's not out in front on campaign finance reform, he has stymied rules reform, and he severely watered down what little ethics reform that passed. And those last two don't require Senate help -- we're talking about the rules of his own House.
So don't support Sheldon Silver because we need his progressive leadership -- he hasn't shown any.
The word out of Silver's camp is that they're expecting around 65% of the vote. I bet Silver gets less than 60%. My final prediction is Silver 58%, Newell 35%, Henry 7%.
And even if Silver wins tomorrow, I am optimistic that he might implement some needed reforms in the next cycle. Why do I speak such heresay? Because Silver's past has shown a similar reaction to a similar circumstance. When Silver's leadership was challenged from within the Assembly caucus by Michael Bragman, the gripe against him was that he was too indifferent to the members of his caucus. Silver learned from that episode and became very attentive to the needs of his caucus since- so much so that he even shields them from having to actually vote on controversial issues. So if Shelly wins by a less-than-expected margin this time, and with a Democratic Senate, he might actually implement some reforms if only to ensure he never has to go through what he is going through now again.
But the election hasn't happened yet- it's tomorrow, so you still have time to volunteer for Paul Newell by calling his campaign at 646 415 8273. |
