NY-26: Initial Thoughts On Kryzan's Victory

My thoughts exactly (0.00 / 0)

Change a few names and numbers, and that's exactly how I feel about NY-21 and SD-46.

The drag is that I didn't have wireless either :-)

These were the real amazing races tonight.  On to the General.  Peace!

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by: Soundpolitic @ Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 06:28:42 AM UTC

NY 26 (0.00 / 0)

As a resident of one of the four rural counties I have no reason to think Alice Kryzan knows or cares that we're here. Other than asking the Livingston County Democratic Committee for an endorsement she's made no contact with this committee member.

On that one occasion I considered her, quite frankly, condescending, inconsiderate and disrespectful.

Alice Kryzan does have her work cut out for her. This voter needs some convincing before voting Row A on this race in November.

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by: Liv Co Dem @ Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 11:27:46 AM UTC

Powers won Livingston 2:1 (0.00 / 0)

I, too, am still a Powers supporter and await his decision about how to proceed.  I am fearful that Kryzan cannot win the district, especially since she does not yet have the support of any of the county parties  (or the DCCC, or the unions, or Jon's 4,000 contributors,  or..... well, just look at the list of his supporters.) Powers beat her 2:1 in Livingston county.
Had Alice not jumped into the race, Jon Powers would be my next Congressman.  Now, I don't know what will happen.
Jane

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by: janed @ Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 13:16:40 PM UTC

Am I understanding correctly (0.00 / 0)

That you would consider not voting at all in the general? Not sure how else to interpret "You can't just expect us to fall in line because you are the nominee."

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by: DavidNYC @ Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 13:51:22 PM UTC

Sorry, misread the last section (0.00 / 0)

So you are saying that Kryzan has to work to win you over, but that you are going to vote for Jon Powers anyway? I don't get it.

It's almost impossible to get removed from a ballot line this late in the game.

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by: DavidNYC @ Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 13:53:09 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Clarification (0.00 / 0)

If Jon Powers decides to actively campaign on the WFP line, I will support him. Not voting is not an option. It is never an option in a democracy.

However, if Jon Powers decides that he won't actively campaign and that he wants to throw his support behind Kryzan, I think you will see a lot of people back her. If think the latter is more likely than the former, but that's up to Jon.

That line you quote was to say that we aren't just going to fall in line with Alice because she is the nominee. Jon Powers earned our support. Alice should do the same.  

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by: robert.harding @ Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 14:02:06 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Hope that (4.00 / 1)

You might consider carefully the will of the voters-- they are good leaders, some days.

That is the benefit of working with a party-- the wisdom of the many can temper the strongly-held opinions of the few, which are sometimes not what the many need.  Powers is very young.  He should take his loss in stride, support his party's nominee, and go do something that prepares him for another run.

BTW-- WKR and Powers' congressional campaign shared a flaw: looking for support at too ambitious a level.  Jon should try a smaller goal that is more clearly in reach next time 'round.  How about NYS Assembly from the Livingston Co. area?

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by: robinia @ Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 14:29:16 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

The will of the voters (4.00 / 1)

Erie, Monroe and Niagara counties went for Kryzan.

Genesee, Livingston, Orleans and Wyoming counties went for Powers.

That's a problem and that's why I said that Kryzan needs to reach out to us. Jack Davis ignored the four GLOW counties and lost even though he won Erie and Niagara counties in 2006. Davis proved in 2006 that this is a district where you need something else. I'm not saying you spend all your resources in the GLOW counties but some attention must be paid there. If you don't, you end up like Davis in 2006. Davis didn't spend any time there and he lost each county by double-digits.

This is a district where you NEED Republicans and independent voters to support you. You aren't going to win with only Democratic support. Kryzan will need to do that if she wants to win.

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by: robert.harding @ Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 14:38:52 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

I've got a better idea. (4.00 / 1)

Powers lives in Amherst. The Assembly seat here is majority Democrat by enrollment but held by a Republican.

It's an easy win for anyone willing to put in the effort.

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by: Amherst Guy @ Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 14:39:43 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

There you go (4.00 / 1)

Doesn't even have to move.  I was (I guess mistakenly) thinking that maybe he lived in an area with a Dem Assemblymember.

As far as reaching out to rural Dems, that will, of course, be a part of the immediate post-primary campaign.  Then, everyone  (prior Powers supporters included) needs to reach out with her to the rest of their neighbors.  Try using her key issues, though-- environment is as big an issue in the GLOW counties as it is in the city.

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by: robinia @ Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 15:00:46 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Hope the Massa campaign is watching this one closely (0.00 / 0)

Too much rural-county-oriented stress on militay themes turns off urban, and esp. women, voters.

Am just glad, glad, glad to be done w/Davis.

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by: robinia @ Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 13:53:46 PM UTC

Military themes.... (0.00 / 0)

Didn't hurt Jon, infact, I think that it could help with football dads and security moms, what hurt Jon was Jack Davis and Alice Kryzan making a clever ad.

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by: daniel.jones @ Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 16:22:31 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

NY 26 (0.00 / 0)

She won the primary and is the Democratic Candidate.  

She's campaigned for a year.  If you don't know anything about Kryzan by now, then you supported Powers without even considering if his opposition were the better candidates.  She doesn't have to convince you of anything.

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by: prodemswny @ Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 14:12:08 PM UTC

I know about Kryzan... (0.00 / 0)

And I still stuck with Powers.

If she wants to win this district, she needs the rural counties. Chris Lee is out in every corner of this district. He's not just going to Erie, Monroe and Niagara counties. That might work in a primary but it's not going to work in a general.

You might think she "doesn't have to convince [me] of anything" but she does. Saying what you said won't unite us. If she is really interested in winning, she will reach out to all Democrats and show why she is a great choice.

Let's not deal with ignorance here. Barack Obama had to do the same thing with Hillary supporters. It's only fair and it does more to bring everyone together. What you said isn't doing Kryzan any favors. I hope you know that.

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by: robert.harding @ Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 14:29:33 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

NY 26 (0.00 / 0)

I met Alice Kryzan and listened to her speak for 40 minutes (when allotted 20). She was not impressive. Her sincerity was not apparent. It seemed as though this is just something for her to do to pass time after retirement, more a hobby than a conviction.

Her failure to campaign in the four rural counties leads me to believe that she has no clue about what this area needs in representation.

I voted to endorse Jon Powers and stand by that endorsement.

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by: Liv Co Dem @ Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 15:47:42 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

If it's news to some people that she's campaigned for a year... (0.00 / 0)

...it's only because she's been out to Wyoming County a grand total of one time that I know of. As Robert points out, she's done little to nothing to reach out to the rural counties, and you can not win this district without the rural counties. That's just the truth.

Frankly, I've seen her, I've heard her, and it strikes me that she really doesn't have much of a grip on how to win this district.  

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by: Adama @ Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 18:06:50 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

I've known about Kryzan (0.00 / 0)

For over a year. It was late August or early September last year when the article came across a Google Alert that she was throwing her hat into the ring. It was then that I researched her and came up with her role with some women's groups and then the two interesting facts: She gave $250 to Tom Reynolds in 2000 and represented Occidental in Love Canal legal proceedings.

Look, Kryzan is clearly a better option than Jack Davis and the Republican in this race. But again, this is a seven county district. It is easy for our friends in Amherst to say that we should just support her because they have seen her. The people in the rural counties have not. That was clear in the results. She needs to reach out to these counties and forge working relationships.  

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by: robert.harding @ Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 18:30:36 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

NY-26: Initial Thoughts On Kryzan's Victory (0.00 / 0)

The Republicans will likely hold this seat, but it's likely to be dismantled in 2012 anyway.  New York is going to lose 2 house seats, 1 from upstate and 1 from downstate.  Since western New York is losing population the fastest, the lost upstate house seat is likely to come from there. If the Democrats takeover the state senate and Massa loses, I think they'll probably combine the 26th and 29th districts into one super Republican district that encompasses most of the rural areas in western New York.  If Massa wins, what they should do is give him and Higgins each half of Buffalo as well as a large portion of rural areas.  Either way, Slaughter's 28th district should be reverted to it's Monroe county-only form that was used from 1992-2002, the current gerrymandered form makes no sense and packs as many Democrats as possible into 1 district.

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by: BluePoster @ Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 14:27:55 PM UTC

That's half wrong. (0.00 / 0)

they're going to have to completely redraw upstate, but higgins' seat is untouchable, Slaughter is going to move back to Rochester, so the "26th" will basically be all of north erie county including some of Buffalo, all of niagara county, and whatever rural counties they throw in. Then the next district will be the rural areas from the 26/29th like you said - Massa's seat. When it's all said and done, the Upstate congress(wo)man losing their seat will be from the Syracuse-Albany region - its all about where there are groups of 750,000 people.

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by: Amherst Guy @ Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 14:46:35 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

NY-26: Initial Thoughts On Kryzan's Victory (0.00 / 0)

That's an interesting idea, as opposed to dismantling the 26th district, it could be altered just enough to make it a Democratic majority district similar to the district that LaFalce represented from 1992-2002.

I strongly disagree about dismantling one of the districts in the Syracuse-Albany region though, considering that they're all represented by Democrats.  Dismantling a district with a Democratic representative should be off the table, let a Republican lose his seat.

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by: BluePoster @ Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 15:32:01 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Let's not get ahead of ourselves. (4.00 / 1)

You are pre-supposing that we will either win the Senate this year and keep it in 2010, or that we will win in 2010.

You are also assuming we Democrats hold the Governor's office in 2010.

Both of those things have to occur.

And then, assuming the process remains the same, typically the Senate draws its lines, the Assembly draws its lines, and the Governor draws Congressional lines - with tons of negotiation involved.

The goo-goos want nonpartisan redistricting, which if there is such a thing, would not account for partisanship either.

Don't get me wrong, I wish things could be done the way you propose, I just don't think we are there yet - even though we SHOULD be having this conversation, as Amherst Guy and I have offline.

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by: Lead Dog @ Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 16:07:34 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

That's not the point (0.00 / 0)

There were 10 Republican seats after the last redistricting. There are 6 now, but they are definitely losing 2, probably losing 3, and could reasonably lose 4. After 2010 it is reasonable to think there could be 0 R seats.

That's why in 2012, Democrats are going to lose 2 seats.

What matters at that point is where are there 750,000 people to draw into a district. WNY's 8 counties still are a lock to have 3 congressmen - 4 if slaughter is one of them. It's just a matter of how many people are there.

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by: Amherst Guy @ Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 17:50:33 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

You are correct (0.00 / 0)

About the stakes, which is why control is critical.  It is very easy to draw lines in ways that help the GOP, and vice versa.

Especially if the institutionalized populations (ie, prisons) are NOT counted in the upstate population counts as they are now for redistricting decisions.

It's a perversely political process.  And it's pretty amazing what you can do with mapping software and performance stats these days.

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by: Lead Dog @ Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 18:43:20 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

That prisons thing (0.00 / 0)

Irritates the be-geebers out of me... but I thought it was not something we could change.  Is there a way to NOT consider rural prison populations when calculating districts?  How do we get that to happen, if so?

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by: robinia @ Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 21:17:54 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

I don't understand this... (0.00 / 0)

I don't understand this, western New York has lost/is losing more population then any other part of upstate.  As of right now, the 27th and 28th districts are significantly underpopulated.  What makes you so certain that the lost house seat is going to come from the Syracuse-Albany region as opposed to western New York?

Obviously each district has to reach 750K, so if Western New York loses a seat, overall the Syracuse/Albany region districts will expand/shift slightly to the west.  If the Syracuse/Albany region loses a seat, overall the western New York districts will expand/shift significantly to to the east.  You could draw a map that takes a seat from either region, but it would be much easier to dismantle a district in western New York.

In addition, it seems to me if the Democrats control the state senate, state assembly, and governorship, they're much more likely to combine, say, Randy Kuhl's district and Chris Lee's district (resulting in a Republican loss) then they are to combine, say, Dan Maffei's district and Michael Arcuri's district (resulting in a Democratic loss).

Of course, this all changes if we manage to beat Randy Kuhl and/or Chris Lee, or if the Republicans manage to hold the state senate.

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by: BluePoster @ Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 19:14:46 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

OK well then (0.00 / 0)

you draw me lines with 750K people in them where the 8 WNY counties don't have at least three congresspersons, four if Slaughter's district continues to stretch over. I promise you can't.

WNY as a whole has been stable for a decade. Buffalo is losing population, but mostly to the suburbs, exurbs, and rural counties. Don't forget, this area is heavily Catholic, who statistically have large families. The total loss for the area this decade might push 50K - very small. Will these districts need to include more of the Finger Lakes area? of course. But the missing upstate congressman will not be from WNY.

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by: Amherst Guy @ Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 20:57:01 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

If it helps (0.00 / 0)

remember that it was WNY who lost the upstate congressman (LaFalce) last time.

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by: Amherst Guy @ Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 20:57:37 PM UTC

[ Parent ]