However, endorsements are endorsements. The only endorsement that matters is the one from voters on Election Day. So what are Kryzan's chances?
There is plenty of upside and some downside to Kryzan. Blogs have been speculating about how well she will do and as a blogger from the 26th district (you can read my work over at The Albany Project), I have seen how Kryzan has been received in this district. Here are the strengths and weaknesses of Alice Kryzan:
STRENGTHS - Kryzan is largely unscathed. The only two negatives against Kryzan were her involvement as legal representation for the Love Canal polluters and her $250 contribution to Republican Rep. Tom Reynolds - the man she, at first, was running to replace. I pushed both these issues on TAP and they were mentioned in the media. However, they never really stuck. One reason for that was Kryzan was never considered a very serious threat or she was not treated as a very serious threat. Other than those two issues, I found nothing.
- Strong support in larger counties. I contend that there are three different parts to this district (I will explain more later): The first part is Erie and Niagara counties. The second part are the rural counties. The final part is Monroe County. The three largest counties - Erie, Monroe and Niagara - were all won by Kryzan in the Democratic primary. Her biggest win came in Erie, where she won with 48 percent of the vote. If a Democrat is going to win this district, you need to win Erie and Niagara counties. Kryzan proved she can do that. She also proved that has some sort of base in Monroe County.
WEAKNESSES - Fundraising. Maybe the aforementioned backing from DCCC and EMILY's List will help Kryzan in this category. Kryzan's bankroll shows that she has raised $281,298 and loaned her campaign $157,000. Keep in mind that she has been raising money since September 2007. That makes her primary victory even more surprising, considering her two opponents were both well-funded. She will need to change this. She needs to raise money and raise money well. In about six weeks she will be taking another well funded challenger: Republican Chris Lee, who is also a millionaire.
- Rural counties. Jon Powers won all four rural counties with over 700 votes. Powers' biggest win came in Livingston County - arguably the most distant county in NY-26 - where he received 939 votes to Kryzan's 446. Powers had support all across the rural counties and he paid attention and listened to the issues that were important to us. We have yet to see that from Kryzan, although she is making the effort. She has been reaching out to the rural counties in recent days to earn their support. Are Democrats going to win the rural counties? Probably not. But if you ignore them, it could be the difference between a narrow victory or a narrow defeat.
- Party unity. Unlike the primary fight between Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton, there aren't months in between the primary and general elections. There are only six weeks to go. Kryzan won 42 percent of the vote district-wide. That means in eight weeks (from the primary to the general) Kryzan has to rally the troops around her. She can do it, but it will take effort. So far, she has done all the right things. The only thing she lacks is time.
What does Kryzan need to do to win? First, she needs to win Erie and Niagara counties. Those are the most Democratic counties in the district (Niagara has a slight Democratic enrollment advantage while Erie has a slight Republican enrollment advantage, but won't be hard to go blue in November). Her margin of victory in Erie and Niagara counties will set the tone for how well she needs to do in the other five counties.
Then comes the rural counties. Kryzan won't win these four. If I was idealistic, I might say she could win a few of them. But in reality, Kryzan won't win any of them. However, she needs to minimize her loses in those four counties (Genesee, Livingston, Orleans and Wyoming). She needs to perform better than Democrats have in the past. She needs to get between 42 percent and 46 percent of the vote in those four counties. It's a reach, but it can be done. With hard work, a true grassroots effort and plenty of outreach you can do well in those four counties.
Lastly, Monroe County. In 2006, Jack Davis lost by over 6,000 votes in Monroe County. He lost the race by 7,000 votes. Davis did not campaign hard in Monroe County (or the rural counties) and paid for it on Election Day. If he focused on the other five counties, he would be our representative. However, he failed to do that and paid the price in 2006. Kryzan needs to avoid that same disaster. She has laid the ground work for success in Erie and Niagara counties. Now she needs to improve in the rural counties and build off her narrow victory in Monroe County. In a year when Monroe County is a battleground (there are two key state senate races that have towns inside NY-26) Kryzan can really use those local races to her advantage.
Can Kryzan do it? It's possible. It will be tough, but it is doable. There is a lot of work to do over the next six weeks. Right now, I would say Kryzan is an underdog. Remember, she was an underdog before. Nothing says she won't be able to pull it off again.
