| Liz has a great breakdown of recent campaign finance filings from the Democrats and Republicans that tell where their resources are being spent and what their primary focuses are heading into November.
On the Democratic side, the three big ones are SD-3 (Brian Foley), SD-15 (Joseph Addabbo) and SD-56 (Rick Dollinger). These seats should go without saying. In SD-15, Republican Serph Maltese narrowly won in 2006 and is vulnerable this year. Here in upstate New York, Dollinger is presenting a serious challenge to Sen. Joe Robach. Robach hasn't received the same love from the SRCC that Dollinger has received from the DSCC. Meanwhile, SD-3 is interesting. Foley is getting plenty of money and support from the DSCC and Republican Sen. Caesar Trunzo is getting backing from the SRCC. Trunzo will need it since he has apparently entered his cave for the winter.
The top target for the SRCC is Maltese, who they have invested a lot of money in hoping he keeps that seat.
The second biggest target for the SRCC? One would think either Trunzo or Robach, right? After all, their counterparts with the DSCC have invested a lot of money in SD-3 and SD-56. But neither are their second biggest target.
Actually, Barbara Donno in SD-7 (Republican challenger to Sen. Craig Johnson) is. The Republicans have spent over $142,000 on Donno, which is remarkable considering she is, at best, a long shot to Sen. Johnson. The reason for this is Senate Majority Leader Dean Skelos and his personal issues with Sen. Johnson. I think the Republicans are crying because Sen. Johnson broke up their nine seat stranglehold out on Long Island. By January, that should be down to seven seats.
The SRCC has also invested in SD-35 (Republican John Murtagh is running against Sen. Andrea Stewart-Cousins) and in SD-48 (Republican David Renzi is going up against Sen. Darrel Aubertine).
There are a couple things that surprise me with the recent filings:
- The lack of money invested in Robach. I would think that they would want to keep this seat that has such a high Democratic enrollment with a candidate that has been able to win there multiple times now. Maybe they will invest more in Robach come October, but the fact they are investing more in races they can't win (SD-7) should raise some questions about what the Republican strategy is for November. Do they really think they are going to keep the majority? It sure seems that way. Of course, these are the same people saying McCain is close in New York.
- The money invested by the SRCC in SD-43 and no money being invested by the DSCC there. The GOP is investing a lot (over $84,000) to keep Bruno's old district red. Are they really worried about keeping this seat or what? It's a Republican district with a Republican assemblyman as the candidate. That's not to take away anything from Mike Russo. If the DSCC can give a modest amount of money to challengers like Kathy Konst, they should be giving up some cash to Russo in SD-43. That seat seems to be one that the Republicans are afraid to lose and the Democrats aren't interested in winning.
I will have more about these filings in my power rankings tomorrow. |
