About

The Albany Project seeks to return New York State Government to its rightful owners - the people.

New York Blogwire

This belongs to you. Take it back...

Siena Polls On Certain State Senate Races Due Out Tomorrow

by: robert.harding

Tue Sep 23, 2008 at 13:35:57 PM EDT

Irene Jay Liu over at CapCon reported last night that Siena would release polling data on six state senate races. Those races are:

- SD-3: Sen. Caesar Trunzo (R) versus Brian Foley (D)
- SD-7: Sen. Craig Johnson (D) versus Barbara Donno (R)
- SD-15: Sen. Serph Maltese (R) versus Joseph Addabbo (D)
- SD-48: Sen. Darrel Aubertine (D) versus David Renzi (R)
- SD-56: Sen. Joe Robach (R) versus Rick Dollinger (D)
- SD-61: Mike Ranzenhofer (R) versus Joe Mesi (D)

I like four of these races they are pulling. I am eager to see the poll for Foley vs. Trunzo out on Long Island. That poll should tell us how Trunzo's faceless campaign is working out for him.

I also like the polling for Addabbo vs. Maltese, Dollinger vs. Robach and Mesi vs. Ranzenhofer. Those are three races we can win. The poll results should tell us how we stand at this point and what we have to do to make these end up in our column.

I do think Siena wasted their time polling SD-7 and SD-48. I might be able to understand SD-48, but I have yet to see anything from the GOP or Renzi to show me that they really want SD-48 back. And polling SD-7 is a waste, considering the only reason this race is being talked about is Dean Skelos and his vendetta against Sen. Johnson. Skelos needs to get over himself. I rated SD-7 "safe Democratic" for a reason. Barbara Donno is the Sarah Palin of New York State politics. Donno is going nowhere but the Republicans are spending money on her campaign like she was a real contender.

It is safe to predict that these polls tomorrow will show most of these races to be close. The one sleeper could be SD-61. Joe Mesi has name recognition, which is something Ranzenhofer lacks. Staunch Republicans might know who Ranzenhofer is, but the low information Republican males in the district probably don't care who Ranzenhofer is. But they know who Joe Mesi is and they would vote for Joe Mesi.

The three big races for us are SD-3, SD-15 and SD-56. All three should show tight races, although SD-3 might be leaning more towards Foley. Foley is out and about in the district and has made himself very visible. Trunzo hasn't done that. That might not be reflected in this poll, but it will be reflected in the only poll that matters on November 4.

ON THE WEB:

Brian Foley's ActBlue Page

Joseph Addabbo's ActBlue Page

Rick Dollinger's ActBlue Page

Joe Mesi's ActBlue Page

robert.harding :: Siena Polls On Certain State Senate Races Due Out Tomorrow

Tags: New York State Senate, Democratic Party, Republican Party, Brian Foley, Rick Dollinger, Joe Mesi, Joseph Addabbo, (All Tags)

Print Friendly View

Send As Email

Siena Polls On Certain State Senate Races Due Out Tomorrow | 7 comments

Not surprising (0.00 / 0)

While it may be a waste to poll SD-7, you've laid out the reasons why Siena has to. It's the Republicans #1 priority and they've dumped a ton of money into that race. From an academic perspective, I'm curious to see polling data out of there (even if Donno is a third rate candidate and Johnson is uber-safe).

by: BingChester @ Tue Sep 23, 2008 at 17:40:33 PM UTC

by: you @ soon

To post this comment click here:

Otherwise click cancel.

Just because they have spent the money... (0.00 / 0)

Doesn't mean it's a race though. I also laid out the reasons why it's a focus for the Republicans. It's not like they picked someone who could actually be a threat to Sen. Johnson. The only reason they are focusing on this is that it puts a dent into their little empire out on Long Island. I can't wait for when Foley wins and faces reelection in 2010.

My point is that there are many other races that will be closer than SD-7. I would rather see polling for Bruno's old seat or SD-55 with Nachbar.

by: robert.harding @ Tue Sep 23, 2008 at 17:51:08 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

What's missing (0.00 / 0)

I'm wondering why they're not polling in SD-11 (Padavan vs. Gennaro).

Do the people who decide where to conduct a poll believe that this race isn't competitive, despite the fact that Gennaro has outraised Padavan by more than 4-1, and as of the July filing had over $400K cash on hand compared to Padavan's $117K?

I know Padavan is somewhat entrenched, and has a long history of constituent services. I know that Gennaro isn't well known (or wasn't when he started this campaign) in most of the district. But Gennaro has the money to get the word out, and he has a history of knocking on lots and lots of doors -- it's how he won his City Council seat in 2001.

I understand why you'd rate this race as "leans Republican," but it certainly deserves a poll.

by: Dan Jacoby @ Tue Sep 23, 2008 at 19:09:42 PM UTC

by: you @ soon

To post this comment click here:

Otherwise click cancel.

I agree... (0.00 / 0)

I think SD-11 deserves a poll more than SD-7 does. SD-11 is a tough race, but how can you ignore the fundraising advantage? I'm one that believes money isn't the only thing, but against an incumbent Republican senator, that has to mean something.

by: robert.harding @ Tue Sep 23, 2008 at 19:32:29 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

I wouldn't (0.00 / 0)

I wouldn't put too much weight on these polls, remember just a week ago Siena put out a poll saying that Obama was only leading by 5 points in New York.

by: BH_Liddel_Hart @ Tue Sep 23, 2008 at 21:52:15 PM UTC

by: you @ soon

To post this comment click here:

Otherwise click cancel.

61st (0.00 / 0)

Ranzenhofer has been up on the air for a month straight. Mesi has been scant and relying solely on RNY to run his tv ads. Mesi is well known but it is not all positive, remember only about 3% of the district voted for him in the primary.

by: BH_Liddel_Hart @ Tue Sep 23, 2008 at 22:51:13 PM UTC

by: you @ soon

To post this comment click here:

Otherwise click cancel.

I've said this many times before (0.00 / 0)

I'll say it again now: never underestimate a well-funded, entrenched, and desperate opponent.

We have reason for optimism. But this is not in the bag, and as Democratic Presidential nominee Hillary Clinton can tell you, 2008 has been a very volatile cycle. Take nothing for granted.

by: Michael Bouldin @ Wed Sep 24, 2008 at 01:16:51 AM UTC

by: you @ soon

To post this comment click here:

Otherwise click cancel.

Siena Polls On Certain State Senate Races Due Out Tomorrow | 7 comments

The Albany Project