7th SD - Nassau County - Craig Johnson (D, incumbent) vs. Barbara Donno (R)
Johnson has a 50-35 percent lead over Donno, down from a 49-25 percent lead in the previous Siena New York Poll. Johnson has the support of more than three-quarters of Democrats, while Donno has the support of more than two-thirds of Republicans. Johnson has a nearly two-to-one lead among independent voters, 50-28 percent, up from 36-24 percent in the last poll. Donno's overall gain in the poll comes largely from Republican voters, where she went from leading 47-28 percent, to now leading 68-19 percent.
Johnson is viewed favorably by 40 percent and unfavorably by 28 percent of voters (36-17 percent last poll). Donno currently has a 29-23 percent favorable rating (16-9 percent last poll).
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37th SD - Westchester County - Suzi Oppenheimer (D, incumbent) vs. Liz Feld (R)
Oppenheimer has maintained a large 64-29 percent lead over Feld, down slightly from 61-24 percent in the previous poll. While Oppenheimer has support from 88 percent of Democrats, Feld is only winning among Republicans 64-30 percent. Oppenheimer has a better than two-to-one, 59-28 percent, lead among independent voters. Oppenheimer leads in every region and with virtually every demographic group.
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56th SD - Monroe County - Joseph Robach (R, incumbent) vs. Richard Dollinger (D)
Robach leads Dollinger 52-39 percent, edging up slightly from 49-38 percent in the last poll. Robach has the support of 84 percent of Republicans and 34 percent of Democrats in this district with a large Democratic enrollment edge. Dollinger has the support of 55 percent of Democrats and 13 percent of Republicans. Robach leads among independent voters 56-37 percent, up from 46-34 percent. Dollinger leads by 11 points in Rochester and eight points in Brighton, however, Robach leads 67-27 percent in Greece and Parma.
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Obama has a commanding 61-32 percent lead over McCain.(!)
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59th SD - Erie/Livingston/Ontario/Wyoming - Dale Volker (R, incumbent) vs. Kathy Konst (D)
Volker has a 50-39 percent lead over Konst, down six points from the last poll, when he led 50-33 percent. Volker has the support of three-quarters of Republicans, while Konst wins among Democrats 60-28 percent. Konst now leads among independent voters 47-40 percent, after trailing with these voters 43-28 percent previously. Volker has a small three - point lead in the Erie County portion of the district and a large 23-point lead in the Livingston/Ontario/Wyoming Counties portion of the district.
Much, much work to do. If you are in or near the 56th or the 59th, now is the time to get off the bench. I still think that the Rocbach/Dollinger race is going to turn largely on the Obama GOTV effort. Obama leads McCain 2-1 in that district and the urban parts of Rochester are going to be key. If you are anywhere near there, now is the time to get involved. This is a winnable race, folks.
More soon. Stay tuned.
