| Phillip provided us with the Siena polling results earlier. The results showed that two Democratic incumbents - Sen. Craig Johnson and Sen. Suzi Oppenheimer - enjoy big leads while two upstate senate races (SD-56 and SD-59) have our Democratic challengers trailing.
Knowing the two upstate districts very well, there are a few things. First, in SD-56 that race is much closer than it appears. You have colleges in the district (yesterday's rally in Rochester was an example) that are energized for not only Barack Obama, but they also like this Rick Dollinger fellow a lot too. Knowing how these polls are conducted, they probably aren't able to target the youth vote. Also, I think Robach's win in Greece/Parma is overstated. He's going to win both. That goes without saying. That's his turf and he will win that area. But he's not going to win by 37 points as he is in the Siena poll.
Brighton and Rochester are going to be the keys for Dollinger and he is winning there right now. I would say that the margins of victory in those areas for Dollinger in this poll are pretty close to what they will be on Election Day. But I would watch for the Greece/Parma numbers on Nov. 4. That is where the difference will be made. If Dollinger can make it fairly close in Greece and then win big in Brighton and Rochester, Dollinger will win.
And if you want a sleeper, watch what Kathy Konst does on Election Day. Volker lost the Erie County portion of this district on Primary Day. Konst is a conservative Democrat who could win this district. Jumping six points in the poll and holding Volker at the same number he came in at last time could mean that this is a race. Keep an eye on this one. There are a lot of people sick of Volker's dirty tricks and tactics and that might play right into Konst's hands. The extreme negativity Volker has utilized might work against him on Tuesday.
There are a lot of questions heading into Tuesday. Luckily we won't have to wait long for the answers.
ON THE WEB:
Rick Dollinger's ActBlue Page
Kathy Konst's ActBlue Page |
