My Surprise of the Night: NY-24 (Arcuri) Is Only a Maybe

that HAS to be a typo (0.00 / 0)

on a BOE employee.

Either way though, I figure he's OK. 2000 is a big margin to make up, even for a Republican.

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by: Amherst Guy @ Wed Nov 05, 2008 at 06:26:22 AM UTC

Arcuri alienated some people by being stupid (0.00 / 0)

You may have heard about his town hall where he was asked about the Military Commissions Act and said it sounded like a good idea?  Before he was severely educated on what it actually WAS by the people (he did vote against it)?

He voted the wrong way on FISA, too.  And we have a lot of LIBERTARIAN-minded upstate Republicans, who want 'small government', and probably social conservatism, but aren't so hot on authoritarianism.

He caved in on things which lost him Democratic and Republican votes.  It doesn't even qualify as pandering, at least not competent pandering.  I think it was just ignorance, myself.  But ignorance of that sort is BAD.

Plus, Hanna looks pretty good on the surface (no record, y'see).

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by: neroden @ Wed Nov 05, 2008 at 06:39:39 AM UTC

Oh, sure know about that stuff (4.00 / 1)

And, I think you are right, I think it was about some combination of inexperience, inexperienced staff, and too much reliance on Nancy Pelosi.

But, it sure lost him the people-power that he might have had from Tompkins Co.  Could fix that in future if he gets the chance.

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by: robinia @ Wed Nov 05, 2008 at 06:56:54 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Look at the turnout too. (4.00 / 1)

With 98% reporting we see:
227,000 votes cast in the NY-24

In 2006 we saw:
203,000 votes cast in the NY-24

In an election that saw 7.4 million votes cast in NY in the 2004 presidential race where we see a similar turnout in the current election for NY, we only have a couple thousand more voters.

People who often think they are skating to victory often see a closer than expected race, the DCCC spent nothing here and it wasn't targetted.
Everyone needs to play their part, from the NY-16 to the NY-3. (okay maybe not the 16th, but understand you all need to play your part)

-- MrMacMan

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by: MrMacMan @ Wed Nov 05, 2008 at 06:52:34 AM UTC

I know, I was really worrying about this (0.00 / 0)

Only a fraction of us were concentrating on the local races.

The exception: Don Barber had some serious people power out working for him, high name recognition (and I believe he had some pretty good turnout).... but he had the toughest of the three State Senate races.  Seward is more popular than Nozollio or Winner, he's the most competent of the three at politics, he has an actual reputation (from waaaay back when); the district is more Republican, and it's more rural, and it's harder to travel through, and it's just plain more gerrymandered.  :-/

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by: neroden @ Wed Nov 05, 2008 at 10:16:19 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Same district, basically (0.00 / 0)

Arcuri's district is very much overlapping with SD-51, all the same problems.  And, what you call Seward's "repuatation" I would say has a huge dollop of pork-larded vote-buying.  But, yeah.  

I was working some on Arcuri's campaign... but, honest, was diverting energy to Massa some because I thought Arcuri was in good shape.  This one will take some in-depth looking at later.  

One of the interesting things about this district is that it is probably one of the areas of the state with the grimmest demographics-- young people leaving, not much in the way of people coming.  Real economic development could make some demographic changes in the electorate there.

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by: robinia @ Wed Nov 05, 2008 at 12:54:23 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Fingers Crossed (0.00 / 0)

For Hanna. There are roughly 10k absentee votes still out there.

We need to get rid of that scumbag Arcuri. Taking money from special interests, voting for FISA, voting for bailouts, his record IS BAD. Arcuri is a coward, and has not done his job to protect the constitution.

While Hanna does not have a voting record, he does have a business record, a record of hard work. A self made man, not a lawyer,or career politician. And definitely no silver spoon in his mouth.

So I hope for all of us in District 24, that believe in the constitution, Hanna prevails.

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by: chenangofreethinker @ Wed Nov 05, 2008 at 13:08:18 PM UTC