SD-11, SD-56: Misplaced Priorities?

Unfortunately (4.00 / 1)

Unfortunately outside groups interfered in the 61st primary and stuck us with a weak candidate, because they valued celebrity over substance.

The Republicans were praying that Mesi would be the candidate instead of Iannello and they got just what they wanted. A Republican who had been in office for 20 years, voted for every budget leading up to the fiscal crisis and was best known in the legislature for his absence, won a district by 8 points the same night it went for Obama.

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by: BH_Liddel_Hart @ Fri Nov 07, 2008 at 00:44:56 AM UTC

Amen! (0.00 / 0)

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by: Amherst Guy @ Fri Nov 07, 2008 at 02:16:03 AM UTC

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Gotta say (0.00 / 0)

(even though Robert may ding me for thinking in stereotypes): women are not at all impressed by sports figures, and women make up the majority of actual voters; although not most of the influential candidate-choosers.  Folks should remember that.

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by: robinia @ Fri Nov 07, 2008 at 13:36:22 PM UTC

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I won't ding you for stereotypes... (0.00 / 0)

But I will ding you for making a broad generalization. I saw Joe Mesi work the crowd the other night. There were women in attendance who were college professors. I would say they are intelligent, well-educated women who are very interested in the future of their community. They liked Joe. Joe listened to them and that's what all voters, including women, want.

I know that you aren't impressed by sports figures, but that doesn't mean all women are the same. The women I know who were impressed by Joe knew he was a boxer, but also knew that he had done a lot of charitable work and a lot of giving back. Joe let his boxing career be the elephant in the room. He made passing references to it on the trail, but overall, he focused on key issues and formulating a plan for WNY.

In any event, that's not why Mesi lost the other night. It was going to be a tough race for Mesi considering Ranzenhofer's legislative district consists of Clarence, Newstead and a sliver of Amherst. So Mesi was running up against a few key Republican parts of the district. He needed to make up the difference in a town like Tonawanda - his hometown - but failed to do so.

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by: robert.harding @ Fri Nov 07, 2008 at 15:06:13 PM UTC

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Didn't say don't mean (0.00 / 0)

...that women didn't like Mesi as a person or a candidate.  I have no idea, really.  Just that, for most women, a candidate would have needed to run for and served in local public office, or served on very visible local boards, or worked for the party, for them to have a predisposition to them accepting him/her as a candidate.  Sports fame doesn't carry into the political arena for women, generally.  I think it does for men, generally.

If he was truly dedicated to establishing a second career as a politician, Mesi should have done as most others would have and started gaining experience and a record of accomplishment further down the political ladder.

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by: robinia @ Fri Nov 07, 2008 at 16:06:55 PM UTC

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You Know Iannello was the better General Election candidate. (4.00 / 1)

You know it before hand, and you danced around it for weeks leading up to the primary.

In the end, Tom Golisano is still a Republican Billionaire. He spent a million dollars to give the democrats a crappy candidate, and, whatever his intentions, now we have a Republican representing a seat that will have more Ds than Rs by 2010.

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by: Amherst Guy @ Fri Nov 07, 2008 at 17:01:29 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Iannello... (0.00 / 0)

I danced around it for weeks? I practically gave her my endorsement when I referred to her as the most progressive candidate in this race. There was never any question about that in my mind and I would gladly assist in any efforts for Michele again.

The arguments made about Golisano in this race fall flat. Golisano lost everywhere. He lost with Dollinger. He lost with Nachbar. He lost with Capanna. He lost other races throughout this state. His support was never a game-changer, even in the primary. If his supported mattered one iota, Barbra Kavanaugh would be representing AD-144 instead of Sam Hoyt.

This is what I know about the SD-61: Mesi raised more money than Iannello. I'm not big on money, but I will state that fact. Mesi AND Iannello actively campaigned throughout the district (so did Dan Ward, but I don't think I need to make this a three-way war of words). I don't live in the district, but I have friends who live in the district. They had no problems supporting Mesi. He was the Democratic candidate.

Now, a lot what said of Mesi and his past ties to Republicans and his giving to Republicans. But Jim Kelly, a star athlete in his own right and conservative who some would love to have run on the Republican line, backed Bill Stachowski this time around. Does that mean Jim Kelly would be chastised by Republicans because he supported a Democrat? I doubt it. When you are a star athlete and NOT politically active (i.e. running for office), you have some freedom to give to whatever candidate or cause you want. So I see nothing wrong with that.

But Amherst Guy, you are big on disclaimers. After months of listening you here, it's about time you come out with your own disclaimer. I know who you are, but no one else here does. So they might perceive you as just some person who happened to support Iannello. I know that it's more than that. I'm not going to out you, but let's be honest about your affiliations and allegiance.  

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by: robert.harding @ Mon Nov 10, 2008 at 03:02:41 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Hell yeah I worked for her. (0.00 / 0)

I work for every good Democrat that crosses my way, like Sen. Marc Coppola, Assm. Sam Hoyt, and Jerry Schad, who unfortunately lost our bid for the 148th Assembly seat, and Jack Davis in 2006. Only the last one paid me.

Now I'm working for Mary Jo Kilroy, standing at the ready to monitor a recount as soon as the election is certified here in OH-15.

Mesi never really outraised Iannello in the primary, he just got the benefit of a billionaire illegally backing him. It just sucks, because he was a bad candidate. The seat is set up best for a woman.

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by: Amherst Guy @ Mon Nov 10, 2008 at 11:47:52 AM UTC

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Quit using Golisano as an excuse... (0.00 / 0)

Iannello, during the primary, brought in a total of $76,637.37 in receipts. Mesi, in the July filing alone, brought in $111,992.25. You can use Golisano's "illegally backing him" as an excuse, but it would be a poor one. Mesi's donors are on record, so I don't why you and others insist on saying that his contributions somehow were illegal too just because he was connected to Golisano. That would be a lie, considering a review of the contributions shows that a lot of different people gave to his campaign, including many from Tonawanda and some others from Erie and Genesee counties as well as other parts of the state.

Plus, as I have said in the past, if you are going to say that Golisano illegally backed Mesi, then we should be lumping in everyone from Brian Foley to Rick Dollinger who also received some level of support from Golisano's RNY. I think what people are confusing is whether or not anything Steve Pigeon did during this campaign was inappropriate. That's a separate argument and should be separate from any debates about Golisano.  

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by: robert.harding @ Mon Nov 10, 2008 at 14:59:55 PM UTC

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I'd like to weigh in (0.00 / 0)

Golisano's actions in the 61st primary were what swung the race. The Mesi campaign itself put only slightly more volume of mail than the Iannello campaign, which was it's only form of voter contact, outside of its paid canvassers and robodails was basically its only form of voter contact. The Mesi campaign's spending was a bit out of control. $13,000 to pay for people to qualify them for the C and I lines, was among the bigger question marks.

RNY came in and sent around 10 pieces of mail, put $40,000 worth of radio ads and at least $150,000 in TV ads. (These are estimates of what I know they did, I have been told spending on RNY's behalf of Mesi in the primary may have been in the $500,000 range.)

The question of whether or not this was legal goes back to the entire debate about coordination. Unequivocally, this was coordination under the federal definition. What the federal definition does is create well defined parameters for content and conduct of independent expenditures as you can read here.

What the federal definition does is specifically ban someone who has insider knowledge of a campaign from being involved with a IE for 120 days.

The state statue does not go beyond saying that "a candidate, his agents or authorized committees did not authorize, request, suggest, foster, or cooperate in any such activity. It is up to intrepretation whether this means that it is less strict or more strict, I think the courts will decide this soon.

RNY set out the argument early though that certain operatives can advise, plan, and be significantly involved up until with a campaign until day x, and then day x+1 can fully be involved with an IE aslong as any involvement ended on day x. In both the Mesi and Kavanaugh races they used this standard. The people in question in these two races, Steve Pigeon and Jack O'Donnell, were using shell LLCs to pass RNY money through in order to make purchases of TV, radio ads on behalf of said candidates, blowing a hole into any potential "firewall" that could have been setup as provided for in the federal definition.

In the end, I think it will be proven that RNY's expenditures on behalf of Mesi and Kavanaugh will be shown to have been coordinated. I think Kathy Konst may also be in trouble because she allowed RNY to video tape her for a TV ad. There however does not appear to be any coordination in the Rochester area races. Though the direct contributions from RNY to candidates does raise many interesting questions, they all are within the legal limit, however, the underlying argument of the $5 million dollars Golisano put into RNY was that it was exempt from the contribution limits because RNY was an unauthorized committee and made no contributions to candidates. What RNY has now done is essentially launder Golisano's money and allow him to get around any contribution limits directly to candidates. But that's for another day.

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by: IannelloFan @ Mon Nov 10, 2008 at 16:06:08 PM UTC

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Let's not pat ourselves on the back here (0.00 / 0)

The decision not to pour resources into the Gennaro race was poor and should not be defended.  Saying we now have a target in 2010 when our majority is so tenuous is complete nonsense, we had a target in 2008.  It was a democratic year, we had a candidate who worked hard and fundraised like mad, we had a solid ground game in place, we had a democratic registration advantage.  What else could someone look for???

As someone who spent an awful lot of time out in Queens fighting for our state senate to turn blue, I find it disappointing that so many people didn't bother to come out to Queens to actually see what was happening on the ground and relied only on the myth of Padavan's invisibility to tell them it was a fool errand.  

We absolutely should look to the future.  But if poo-poo our mistakes from 2008, we shall fail to learn from them.  

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by: queensguy @ Fri Nov 07, 2008 at 14:34:09 PM UTC

What were we thinking? (0.00 / 1)

With a 3 to 1 democratic registration in SD 11 and Gennaro's 3 to 1 fund raising advantage, how could the DSCC only spend a little over $4,000.00 on this race?

Now we have to count paper collected by inept workers of the Queens BOE to reach a 33/29 majority. All this while we have so-called Democrats caucusing with Republicans endangering the perceived power grab.  

I want everyone to note that 2010 is a long way off. Heck, Monday is a long way off in politics. The time was now and the opportunity may be lost.

We should not ignore the "should haves or could haves," we have to learn from them moving forward.

 

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by: alwayswatching @ Fri Nov 07, 2008 at 15:08:36 PM UTC

The GOP is Toast (4.00 / 1)

You folks are missing the point.  Two things kept the GOP in power in the State Senate: money & the power to gerrymander the lines.  If the Gang of Four get on the bus, the Republicans will have zero ability to raise money for any special elections or the 2010 general election.  Instead of being outspent 3 to 1, 4 to 1, etc., our candidates in the future will be able to outspend their Republican opponents.  Once we redraw the lines after the 2010 election, they will be reduced to a token opposition party - like the Massachusetts GOP.

We will not win every State Senate race, but the Padavan,  Rochester, and Rockland seats are going to turn blue very soon.  We have a candidate who can take the Volker seat, and we will now be able to recruit Democratic Assemblymen like Jeff Klein to make the jump.  There are a couple of them who could knock off Robach in 2010.  

Additionally, we ought to ask if any of the remaining Republicans are ready to read the writing on the wall and switch parties.  Perhaps Robach really wants to be a Democrat again.

Once we redraw the lines, DeFrancisco, Golden, and Hannon will be eliminated.  

This has been a long time coming, and the GOP deserves to have all the tools of power used against them in the same way they wielded them.

Francis Vecellio

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by: fvecellio @ Fri Nov 07, 2008 at 15:30:05 PM UTC

Mistakes Made (0.00 / 0)

I couldn't just sit by and not comment on the 56th Senatorial Race.  If you want to blame anybody about the loss blame Stachowski.  In the eleventh hour Senate Dems had to pull out of  SD56 to save him.  A seat that he has held for over 20 years and his arrogance and lack of planning disrupted the 56SD campaign in Rochester.  I have seen the numbers from this district and this race was lost in Brighton.  

Robach and Dollinger basically tied in the Town.  Dollinger won the City of Rochester by a three to one margin.  Out of the 28,000 people that voted in that race in the City of Rochester Dollinger received 21,000 of the votes.  If the Senate Dems were able to continue their focus in Rick's home town Brighton then this wouldn't have happened he only needed 2800 people to turn their vote from Robach to him and although it would have been a tight race we would have won.

I think your right it's time to focus on 2010.  Governor Paterson will be running so it will be another exciting year.  Further I can't even believe that Sandy Frankel Brighton's Town Supervisor that was vying for the seat in the beginning was such a sore loser. She didn't even campaign for Rick in the District not one piece of lit went into Brighton with her on it vowing her support of him.  
 

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by: Lisa Johnson @ Fri Nov 07, 2008 at 15:32:45 PM UTC

Frankel and SD56 (0.00 / 0)

Perhaps Frankel have been a better candidate in the first place?  If the difference was Brighton, she might have delivered it.  The margin in the City would have probably been the same.

I'm in SD55 (Fairport), so I don't know the personalities of the Dollinger vs Frankel.  

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by: BurbProgressive @ Fri Nov 07, 2008 at 21:56:56 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Blame Bill Stachowski? (0.00 / 0)

Whoa whoa whoa, Bill Stachowski is going to be the next Chair of the Finance Committee, upstate Democrats need a powerful ally in that position to work with Governor Paterson.  Dollinger would have been a great Senator, but the Stachowski race was an example of a seat that seriously needed to be defended above anything else.

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by: daniel.jones @ Mon Nov 10, 2008 at 01:22:36 AM UTC

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Furthermore (0.00 / 0)

Can you imagine if we had lost that seat?  Not only would Dennis Delano be a State Senator (shudders) but the Republicans would have had a major pickup, not only a boasting point but a major focal point in making the argument with the Gang of Four, they can bring in WNY support because 2 of the State Senate District's outside and partially in the City of Buffalo are represented by Republicans.

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by: daniel.jones @ Mon Nov 10, 2008 at 01:24:39 AM UTC

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To be fair (0.00 / 0)

we COULD NOT lose Stach.

Period.

It is not entirely his fault he needed saving:

*It's hard to build up a profile in the minority

*He's in a mind-numbingly safe district, with huge democratic majorities and a massive number of Ethnic Polish, who are fiercely loyal, built by Republicans to take in all the Dems they could to keep 57, 59, 61, and 62 safe for Republicans. So he had no reason to be afraid, ever.

*The Republicans ran a local hero against him, the detective who Dateline NBC credited with solving the 20+ year old Bike Path Rapist case that had stricken fear into every WNY Female, and then (the perception is) got fired for doing whatever it took to solve the not-exactly-but-basically-rape and murder of a cute 13-year-old white girl.

yes, he should have done a lot more. that's on him. But you know what? we got what we needed, and in 2 or 4 years we can obliterate this whole damn map and start again.

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by: Amherst Guy @ Mon Nov 10, 2008 at 02:00:14 AM UTC

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