SD-11: Recount Cuts Padavan's Lead To Just 502 Votes

This is doable (0.00 / 0)

as you say not an insignificant hurdle to overcome. I'd have to think with that much paper Gennaro has it. Do you know what the break is on the paper like 2 to 1 Dem? Too bad Boards don't report stats on paper every election cycle. Then it would be easy to do a FiveThirtyEight and call it now like 2,100 disqualified, 800 drop off on the Senate race 3,000 for Gennaro and 2,400 for Padavan. With Obama taking Queens, this district enrolled democrat it's got to be a win. I know paper usually breaks like the machine vote but this wasn't an ordinary election. Maybe he did better in paper than on machines. The democratic Senate conference will be very happy.

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by: TruBlu @ Thu Nov 13, 2008 at 03:41:15 AM UTC

Affidavit Ballots (0.00 / 0)

In my experience as a former elections employee have a bigger than usual down-ballot drop off, and in NY usually about 2/3 are DQ'd.

If this is both Affidavits and Absentees, remember that Affidavits go D and absentees go R. Abbentees have a DQ rate of way under 5%.

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by: Amherst Guy @ Thu Nov 13, 2008 at 15:19:58 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

How does the paper break down? (0.00 / 0)

Not only do we not have statistics on how paper ballots "tend"  to break, but also we have to take into account two other items.

First, the Obama camp spent a lot of resources in "early voting" efforts, which is probably why Mark Begich is currently leading Ted Stevens in Alaska.  The only way to vote early in New York is via absentee ballot.  This would tend to favor Gennaro heavily.  Second, New York has some of the most backward laws in the country regarding early (or "absentee") voting.  This would tend to favor Padavan.

In 1960, physicist Frank Drake published what is known as the "Drake equation" to determine the odds of extraterrestrial life.  The problem with the equation is that there are too many unknowns -- and if any of them is zero, the end result is also zero.  Regarding the paper ballot count, there are also too many unknowns, making it very difficult to determine whom they "should" favor.

There is, however, one known quantity -- where are the paper ballots coming from?  By counting how many paper ballots are from which election districts, a fairly educated guess could be made.  If anyone has that info (I don't), let's hear from you.

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by: Dan Jacoby @ Thu Nov 13, 2008 at 13:48:04 PM UTC

Racism At Work Regarding NYS Senate? (0.00 / 0)

There's something very odd about this "gang of three" suddenly rearing their heads, after Democrats finally won enough Senators to take over that legislative body, and the Democrats coincidentally being led by an African-American.

To me, it seems like an obvious question not being asked of the holdouts is: "Why, all of a sudden, after having openly run for their positions as Democrats just a few days ago,and with the first African-American in New York history poised to take over as the head of one of our legislative bodies for the first time in our history, do these folks oddly have second thoughts?

What do the African-American communities in their Senate districts think about them suddenly considering turning their backs on electing the first African-American Senate Majority Leader in New York history?

Something doesn't quite smell right about all this, and, to me, at least, it appears to have a lot more to do with possible racism by these folks than merely an attempt at trying to leverage their power; or, perhaps it's a little bit of both.

The question that needs to be asked of these "gentlemen" is this: "Why, now that New York is on the verge of electing its first African-American legislative leader in our history, are you suddenly considering changing your mind? Does it have anything to do with the fact that you do not want an African-American to lead New York's Senate?"

That question needs to be posed directly to these folks, for all the world to see. It will be interesting to see their reactions.

It will also be interesting to see the response of the African-American communities in their districts, especially any African-Americans who voted for them.

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by: paco @ Thu Nov 13, 2008 at 16:33:34 PM UTC

to be clear (0.00 / 0)

this has nothing to do with hispanic representation, or marriage equality or bi-partisanship or any other such thing. this is about getting the best deal. it is about straight up getting paid.

this is a shakedown, nothing more, nothing less.


TODAY is day one. It always is.

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by: phillip anderson @ Thu Nov 13, 2008 at 16:37:15 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

How do we know? (0.00 / 0)

How do we know unless we ask them this question. It is a legitimate question and one that needs to be asked of them. It is a very odd coincidence, to me, that, with the Democrats finally being on the verge of taking over the state Senate and selecting the first African-American as leader of a legislative body, that these previously so-called "Democrats" now are considering other options.

Something smells funny, at least to me, and it's not just the obvious shakedown going on.

It also seems to me that these Senators African-American constituents, especially those that voted for them, need to be given a reason why they are suddenly turning their backs on selecting the first African-American legislative leader in our state's history.

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by: paco @ Thu Nov 13, 2008 at 17:54:31 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

I'm with Phillip (0.00 / 0)

This is all about a deal.

The difference is that I would give them what they really want - which is a little respect, a few more staff jobs, and some lulus - and concede nothing on agenda.  There are more committees than Democratic members - give them all a chairmanship, and they should shut up.

Of course, the Gennaro recount should diminish their leverage, but ongoing pot-shots aren't helpful, and we should allow the leader to to negotiate in private and on his own to land this plane.

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by: Lead Dog @ Fri Nov 14, 2008 at 18:30:45 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Hopefully, you're right. (0.00 / 0)

However, if the threats (and, lets face it, that's exactly what these are) are an accurate representation of the true feelings of any of these folks, then, it seems to me, that
some pressue brought to bear on these guys where it may really hurt--from key local constituency groups of potential impact to their future re-election prospects--may be in order.

If all they are looking for is to be heard, in a respectful manner, about how they feel Democrats may have taken them and their constituencies for granted, then you're right, their grievances should be fully heard and addressed.

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by: paco @ Sun Nov 16, 2008 at 16:12:57 PM UTC