| The other night at a holiday party, during a discussion of politics, a Republican friend of mine confided "I would never be a Republican if I lived in the South...that part of the party has gone totally crazy." Whether or not that will make this friend start voting Democratic, I can't say, but there can be little doubt that the increasingly blue tilt of New York State in federal elections and increasingly southern tilt of the Republican party are not unrelated.
That's why the Republican rejection of the auto bail-out and the coming battle over card check legislation may have a real impact on New York State politics, even though all the apparent action is taking place in Washington. To the extent that the Republican party is seen as anti-union and southern-dominated (which it is), it becomes increasingly difficult for New York State Republicans to gain support among union workers; without this support, Joe Robach, for example, would almost certainly have been defeated this fall.
The fact that the Republican party is a southern party has been clear for years. It's become so obvious, in fact, that even David Broder has taken notice:
All the signs are that the stimulus spending will be opposed by congressional Republicans, whose shrunken ranks are increasingly dominated by right-wing Southerners who care not what their stance does to harm the party's national image.
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Even though Bush later used his authority to provide the loan, the defeat of this legislation at Republican hands will not be forgotten when GOP senators run for reelection in 2010 in states such as Ohio and Pennsylvania. It will also echo in industrial states such as Michigan, Indiana, Wisconsin, Illinois, California, New York and New Jersey, when Republicans try to challenge for Senate and House seats.
The Southern domination of the congressional Republican Party has become more complete with each and every election...
Ron Brownstein spells it out in even starker terms:
But it's telling that so many Republicans from reliably conservative places were willing to attach the party to a policy that could economically devastate Rust Belt states where the GOP is already declining.
That gamble shows how the party's loss of regional and ideological equilibrium can reinforce itself. Because Republicans from swing and Democratic-leaning states now constitute such a distinct minority in the party caucus, they lack the numbers to prevent it from adopting positions unpopular with their voters. The caucus majority can impose a direction that solidifies the party where it is already strong but further endangers the minority.
Stereotypes and conventional wisdom have enormous political power. For years, Republicans have sneered at "San Francisco liberals" and "Massachusetts democrats." How much will it hurt the Republican party in the northeast when Republicans are seen as "Mississippi conservatives"? |
