| A few days ago I wrote that I thought that Governor Paterson had about three months to get his act together and "right this ship." I'm beginning to think that I was far too generous. If this morning's new Siena poll is to be believed, Paterson is in deep trouble as his numbers are cratering rapidly.
According to the SRI, his favorable/unfavorable number plunged from 54/30 to 40/47. It was 64/19 three months ago.
Only 28% of New Yorkers approve of his job performance compared to 69% who think he's stinking up the joint. Last month, 51% approved while only 45% disapproved.
Even worse, only 19% of voters are prepared to vote for Paterson next year. 59% prefer an unnamed "someone else." That's a 3 to 1 preference for someone without a name. To put this in perspective, 42% of voters in November preferred Paterson to the 32% who preferred the candidate to be named later.
That, friends, is just brutal.
And it gets worse. In potential 2010 matchups, Paterson is losing ground at a furious clip. He loses a hypothetical Democratic primary against Andrew Cuomo by 2 to 1, 27% to 53%. In November, Siena had these numbers reversed, with Paterson crushing 53% to 25%. That was a scant three months ago. Hell, the Governor lost 20 points against the Attorney General in the last month. Ouch.
As for potential GOP challengers, Paterson enjoys his one bright spot. He waxes poor Rick Lazio 46% to 28%. Great. But, Cuomo beats the hapless Lazio by a whopping 66% to 16%.
Against the "walking. sometimes talking mountain of fail" that is Rudy Giuliani, Paterson loses badly, 51% to 36%. Last month, Paterson beat Rudy 44% to 42%, a -17% swing in thirty days. In December, Paterson beat Rudy 51% to 38%.
In contrast, Cuomo beats Giuliani this month by the exact same margin, 51% to 38%.
To make matter even worse, 53% of New Yorkers think that the state is heading in the wrong direction, the highest ever recorded by Siena, compared to only 31% who think the state is on the "right track." 65% think that New York's economy is "poor." Only 37% believe their elected leaders are capable of solving the crisis compared to 61% who have no confidence at all that the budget crisis will be solved.
All these numbers add up to big, serious, profound trouble for Governor Paterson. If he really wants to be elected to a full term next year, he's got to turn this thing around and do it awfully damn quick. Numbers like these are will begin to severely damage his fundraising, a task that was already more difficult thanks to the economy's nosedive. That leads to more stories about how he's not viable in 2010 and to more headlines about a rudderless administration and to...more polls showing how he's not viable in 2010. It's a vicious cycle that can very easily begin to snowball and reinforce itself.
Paterson and his crew had better get it together and stop this freefall if they are to have any chance at all in 2010. Otherwise, they will be doing not much more than wasting everyone's time and money. |
