Democrat Scott Murphy has slashed into the huge lead once held by Republican Jim Tedisco in the New York special House election scheduled for March 31, according to a new Democratic-sponsored poll.
Tedisco, the state Assembly minority leader, holds a 7-percentage-point lead over Murphy, a 39-year-old venture capitalist, according to the late February survey by the Benenson Strategy Group. The margin was 44 to 37 percent, with Libertarian Eric Sundwall at 4 percent, and 15 percent of voters undecided.The poll was paid for by the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee.
The poll was conducted Feb. 24-25, and included interviews with 400 likely voters in the Upstate New York district.
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But the controversy has allowed Murphy to cut into Tedisco's once seemingly impregnable lead. Early polls had Tedisco up by 20-plus points, while a Siena Research Institute poll two weeks ago still had him holding a 12-point edge.
Republicans dismissed the latest DCCC poll as a natural tightening in a district that Gillibrand carried easily, and where President Barack Obama's approval ratings hover at the 70 percent range.
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Democrats, though, were pleased with the polling results, and vowed to make significant independent expenditures for the race. They would not provide any specific number on how much the party plans to dump into the effort.
"We're moving forward, being cautiously optimistic," said Brian Wolff, the DCCC's executive director. "The stimulus package and the economy, and our candidate, are striking a tone with voters in the 20th District."
Yeah, it's a partisan poll and all usual caveats apply. That said, it's pretty easy to see how this is happening. Also, it seems that the more folks learn about Scott Murphy, the more they like what they see.
One thing is for sure. Murphy's got the 'mo. If he had cut the lead to 7 weeks ago, where are those numbers today? Given Tedisco's widely panned debate performance, continued bad press and further stumbles, it's hard to imagine that the trend has arrested itself or even reversed.
