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NY-20: New Siena Poll Shows Tedisco Lead Cut To Just 4 Points

by: phillip anderson

Thu Mar 12, 2009 at 10:17:25 AM EDT

Republican candidate Jim Tedisco - 45 (-1)
Democratic candidate Scott Murphy - 41 (+7)
Libertarian candidate Eric Sundwall - 1 (+1)

Wow.

From Siena:

Murphy Cuts Tedisco's Lead From 12 to 4 Points
Tedisco Rated Better on 4 Issues; Murphy on 2, Including Economy
Murphy Now Leads with Independent Voters, After Trailing 2 Weeks Ago

Loudonville, NY. With less than three weeks until the special election in the 20th C.D., Democrat Scott Murphy has cut Republican Assembly Minority Leader James Tedisco's 12-point lead by two-thirds. Tedisco now leads the race 45-41 percent, having led two weeks ago by a 46-34 percent margin, according to a new Siena (College) Research Institute poll of likely voters. While two weeks ago, voters said Tedisco would do a better job than Murphy representing them on six issues, Murphy now leads on two of those issues, including the most important issue for 20th C.D. voters: the economy.

"Scott Murphy has significantly narrowed the gap against Jim Tedisco, trailing by only four points in a district that has a 15-point Republican enrollment edge," said Steven Greenberg, spokesman for the Siena New York Poll. "Only 13 percent of voters remain undecided - down from 20 percent - and nearly 90 percent of voters say they are absolutely or fairly certain they will not change their minds.

"Murphy continues to do a better job of holding the support of Democrats, than Tedisco does with Republicans. The big turnaround from two weeks ago, however, is among independent voters, who previously gave Tedisco a significant 45-31 percent lead, and now favor Murphy by a 43-37 percent margin," Greenberg said. "Tedisco's leads in the Capital District and Hudson Valley fell slightly, while Murphy turned a slim two-point lead in the northern counties of the district into a now dramatic 25-point lead."

"Both candidates have become more known to voters over the last few weeks, as airwaves have been inundated with commercials and mailboxes have been filled with messages from both campaigns," Greenberg said. "Tedisco remains better known, with both higher favorable and unfavorable ratings from the voters.

"Eight in ten voters have seen or heard a commercial for Murphy, while 86 percent have seen or heard a Tedisco ad. By a margin of 28-20 percent, voters say Murphy's ads make them more likely to vote for him, with half of voters saying it has no effect on who they plan to support. Only 12 percent of those who have seen Tedisco's commercials are more likely to support him, while 28 percent say the ads make them less likely to support Tedisco, with 58 percent saying they have had no effect," Greenberg said.

"Voters continue to overwhelmingly think Tedisco will do a better job on homeland security. And by small margins, they also give him the edge on health care, education and bringing federal money into the district. Now, however, more voters think that Murphy will do a better job on successfully ending the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, and on addressing the economy, which is far and away the most important issue voters want their new Member of Congress to address," Greenberg said.

Emphasis mine.

This race is going to be tight and, as always with specials, it'll come down to good, old fashioned GOTV. But, this is a very winnable race. The CW was that this was Tedisco's to lose.

It looks as if he just may lose it after all.

On the web: Scott Murphy for Congress.